Monday, November 01, 2010

What a Load of Central Bankers

Here we are, the roar of finely tuned trading machines on the grid, waiting for the green lights from the central banks, is deafening. Well we wish it was. Its actually pretty dead as every feasible permutation of QE has been discussed ad nauseam (today's lucky winner is ex-Fed member Meyer with 5 Terabucks). In fact looking back at a chart of anything just shows what an un-October month October really was. I suppose the "surprise" this October was in the "no surprise". Which makes for an exciting end of year as the pressure to perform has now been compressed into the last 2 months.

But before we kick off we have to get through this week's CB-fest. So we have been doing our own spying on them, looking for clues. We didn’t really find anything of great surprise.

Fed - Have just been lent the "Euro-millions" lotto machine to use in deciding how much QE to do. Awaiting for the game show style announcement on Wednesday... "And the first number tonight is 15, the second is...

BoJ - We heard singing from their windows of an ironic version of the Vapours classic. Only this time it is "We are turning USA".

RBA - Lots of giggling and herbal smells - "you know what? We are in such a wonderful place why don't we let you lot decide on rates? We are just so high on commodities we really don’t care about the odd 0.25% anymore. In fact just leave it to that journo in a mac, you all seem to pay more attention to him than us anyway".

ECB - Saw Paul McKenna enter the building with a large watch on a long chain muttering "look into my eyes, not around my eyes, into my eyes .. Europe is just fine and those blow outs today in euro-peripheries are just the market's way of saying how wonderful your policies are. Oh and don’t forget to say Viiigiiiilent".

BoE - Saw a large package arrived marked The Gaucho Grill with Argentina postmarks. We suspect it was bought from the Kirchner estate having previously been used to incinerate all traces of inflation contaminants from your otherwise tenderest of data.

Back to sleep.

4 comments:

Leftback said...

Big Figure Watch... following on from TMM's Big Figureitis post of a few weeks back.

We have now seen:

AUDUSD 1.00
GBPUSD 1.60
EURUSD 1.40
CHFUSD 1.00

and we are close to USDJPY 80 and CADUSD 1.00

The inflection point is nigh. We are running out of people to sell the dollar, at least for this cycle.

Leftback said...

Trick or Treating may be arriving a few days late for the capital markets.

Who are those people dressed as PIGS? Was the person dressed as The Grim Reaper kidding when he promised "haircuts"? What if Mr Bernanke had forgotten to fill the bowl of candy to the brim, after all? Will those who have overindulged feel "QEasy" on Wednesday?

OK, I'll stop now...

FX said...

I like your thinking there, PoLEMIC, I'm just enjoying teh spectacle of the 38 barrier blowing up, they tried so hard but, it was never going to happen, was it?

Chris Waggoner said...

I guess I'm a noob. What is the normal expectation for October? A surprise?