Wednesday, November 10, 2010
Drowning in it today. We are a smidge buried in our own little Worlds. Earning a crust coming before the hobby. So a brief one.
If you imagine that dealing in the markets is a bit like beekeeping, where you are managing lots of small independent bits of information (the bees) and if you do it well you are rewarded with Honey, then we feel that today the little buggers have swarmed. Lots of little headlines all hitting the wires which individually would be just fine but they are coming in thick and fast on all the current themes.
Last night we had US yields picking up after the 10yr auction and it that uber rate sensitive pair USD/JPY has responded in style. Is it the start of something bigger?
Dunno because we are trying to work out what the Aussie data + Chinese data + reserve requirement hikes means.Is this significant?
Dunno because we are now trying to swipe away a swarm of stories on Ireland (IMF bailout speculation the latest). Do we think that’s likely?
Dunno we are now being harassed by an attack from the Mervynflation headlines. Argentine Economics. Have to say BoE Quants on fire there. Chances of inflation being at or above 2% or below 2%? Remember, only 2 outcomes possible... 50/50... Well done chaps. Do we care?
Dunno because the Portuguese auctions are out. Are they good or bad?
Dunno because someone has just placed all the soothsayer "turn" indicators in USD in front of us... Should we follow them?
Dunno because now a load of pre-G20 whining is hitting the wires. Are they going to hold it in a boxing ring? Or one of those cage-fight things?
We know that mastery of the market would look like this:
But today we just feel more like this:
So basically, sorry, we are just too busy to try and strip the swarm, find the Queen and get them back in the box. (Though for some reason, selling AUD/CAD is singing out to us).