Monday, October 25, 2010

Things the G20 Can't Organize

TMM were disappointed by the G20 like, oh, you know, most people who think there's a good chance that if we don't resolve global imbalances we might have a trade war and possibly even a real war to say nothing of the currency war underway. So, today TMM are putting their fingers which range from "ooh, that's a bit warm" (EURSGD) to "yup, that lava really does make your hand spontaneously combust" (AUDCHF) into buckets of ice and thought we'd note a few things the G20 can't organize.

1) A piss up in a brewery....
2) A lay in a Macau.....
3) A gangland shooting in a favela.....


We are open to further suggestions from our readers. Suffice to say that even when things do work out in our books on days like this you really have to wonder whether there are going to be markets, per se, a few years from now. Between global climate change and global imbalances the world is showing  that it can't fix any problems that require coordination, even if it is very mutually beneficial and the downside is absolutely awful.

10 comments:

Charles said...

Reminds me of a Woody Allen quote I read recently :
"More than any time in history mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness, the other to total extinction. Let us pray that we have the wisdom to choose correctly"

So, Risk on or Risk off ?

Nemo Incognito said...

Charles, we had a discussion about this on our little IB chat and we came to the conclusion that the only way to get rich now is act like old school macro managers and locusts and attempt to propagate all the horrible misalignments in the global capital markets. Having tried to be a force for good we are throwing in the towel and embracing evil. In no order of priority:

- Buy EM carry currencies. Double down if the central bank tries to intervene.
- If the CB tries to put withholding taxes on their international bonds (that's you Thailand) then buy their high yield equities.
- Buy gold (duh).
- Buy yen.

Given that "slinging rock on the block" and "pimpin' hoes" are not exchange traded contracts that's where we are kicking it off but we are open to suggestions.

frank.mcgillicuddy said...

if you're a believer in longterm human failure, put on some long-dated trades, LOL

Leftback said...

Short and sweet, Nemo !!

One more push lower for the DXY this week until everyone has satiated their Big Figure lusts?

LB is scaling out of risk in the next few days. A pile of cash always looks more attractive when volatility is reawakened. Don't like EMs, gold or Treasuries now.

MKGI said...

Did I hear Leftback say he doesn't like Treasuries? The wind is changing......

Charles said...

Thanks for the insight Nemo.

I understand now that Step 1 is buy EM currencies, HY equities, gold and yen, and - if I may suggest - collect underpants.
Step 3 is obviously to get rich.
But what about Step 2 ?

Nemo Incognito said...

Charles, QE, QED. Also LB if risk off is not gold or treasuries WTF is it?

Leftback said...

Nemo:

Gold is not risk-off here, it is QE to infinity.
Should QE prove finite, gold and Ts will fall.

Hamfisted said...

Why would sensible people court scandal by going on a drunken shooting rampage in the red light district?

Nemo Incognito said...

Hamfisted - what?