The non-farm payroll report

claims that employment increased in both the construction and financial services industry last month. To quote Mr. Prop in his professional guise, there are two chances of that being accurate: fat and slim.
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Anantha
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May 2, 2008 at 4:09 PM ×

construction employment has dropped by 61K.

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Anonymous
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May 2, 2008 at 4:21 PM ×

it the B/D adjustments that are positive... still strange but net net construction is indeed -61k

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Macro Man
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May 2, 2008 at 4:28 PM ×

Doh! Not sure what I was looking at, but clearly not the right data. Clearly my brain is frazzled after a long and, frankly, puzzling week.

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Anonymous
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May 2, 2008 at 5:07 PM ×

financial services ? LOL....

I see lot of vacant spaces all around me .. I work in a top 5 i bank

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Banker
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May 2, 2008 at 5:56 PM ×

Based on the way the markets are reacting, you are correct.


Banker

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Mr. Prop
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May 2, 2008 at 7:50 PM ×

Equity sentiment is a mixed picture. One can find the conclusion you want depending on what measure you look at. I prefer some of shorter-term ones. The AAII bull/bear ratio is back to Oct highs, just before stocks shanked 11%. My short-term market suggests that spoooz are 5%-7% overvalued. I can't hold a long position at these levels. The bullish story is that there is reasonably replay of the 1992-94, rates on hold, moderating inflation, and soft growth. Goldilocks may strut. Yet, uncertainties are high about what happens to or rather the depth of correction of domestic credit growth. In English, how big is the credit crunch. We have to admit that the US economy has proved itself to be more flexible and dynamic beyond what many expect. Bottom line is that if you are in the sell in May and go away camp, you may find better risk reward in long Reds, despite today's carnage. I prefer the U8-M9 flattener now. Why? Whenever the Fed steps up with more TAF for some weird reason we see OIS-Libor get worse not improve. That is also why I would cut out/take profits on swap spread tightening trades at this level. I also am not sure on EUR/crude axis. I would cover EUR shorts now and see what happens. The bear market for the dollar is in its seventh year. One does not have to catch the top. Let the market prove itself before getting committed to that trade.

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Anonymous
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May 3, 2008 at 8:39 AM ×

One of the weaknesses of the AAII is that it is mostly a measure of how people feel about being long stocks. Without any proof at all, I'm inclined to think, right now, that any similar survey of investors who fancy themselves adept at short sales would also turn up a pretty high percent believing it was a good environment in which to turn a profit - or at least on the verge of becoming one any minute now.



CB

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Anonymous
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May 3, 2008 at 8:40 AM ×

One of the weaknesses of the AAII is that it is mostly a measure of how people feel about being long stocks. Without any proof at all, I'm inclined to think, right now, that any similar survey of investors who fancy themselves adept at short sales would also turn up a pretty high percent believing it was a good environment in which to turn a profit - or at least on the verge of becoming one any minute now.



CB

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TV
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May 3, 2008 at 6:48 PM ×

Prayrolls is a market rorschach test

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