Thursday, November 22, 2007
Before Macro Man (an expatriated Yank) settles into a day of heavy food consumption and late-afternoon NFL, it's time to count his blessings and be thankful for the following:
1) That he works in an industry that allows him to indulge his intellectual curiosity and competitive instinct while providing a handy method of keeping score (the P/L.)
2) That his real-world portfolio has been empty of CDOs and all manner of structured credit turds.
3) In a similar vein, that he doesn't have to rely on third-party agencies to do his analysis for him.
4) As a UK resident, that he is paid in sterling rather than dollars!
5) To have gotten Q3 and, to date, Q4 right, investment-wise. In future years the second half of 2007 will join October 1987 and August-October 1998 in the pantheon of stress-test environments.
6) That Mrs. Macro, the Macro boys, and he himself are healthy and happy.
7) That he's kept the TIPS position all year. A total return of 11% for a bond-holding in a little more than ten months ain't bad!
8) That he had the foresight or luck (or perhaps a combination of the two) to change his mind on the yen and hedge near the highs in USD/JPY.
9) That he does not have to manage the England football team.
10) That, contrary to all expectations, this space has attracted a modest following and, gratifyingly, reasoned, intelligent commentary from other market participants and observers. Thanks to all who read and share their thoughts.