Friday, July 27, 2007
A long time ago, Willie Nelson sang "turn out the lights...the party's over." While the failure of the DOTW to step in immediately makes it tempting to conclude that the party really is over for equities and risk assets, it does of course remain premature to conclude that with any degree of conviction.
Neverthless, it's also important to respect the fact that markets are starting to seize up and that equities are rapidly approaching some very interesting levels. Interesting levels to buy? Perhaps. But, Rudyard Kipling's admonition notwithstanding, in times of financial distress keeping your head (or at least using value as a short term investment criterion) isn't always the right thing to do. The FTSE, for example, is already perched right on its uptrend line of the entire five year bull market.
A break could produce a fair amount of pain (and further asset allocation shifts from the UK pension fund industry.) It makes sense to position for the tail risk event, which would then provide a platform for selective purchases on weakness. Macro Man therefore buys 400 FTSE Dec 5525 puts at 80.