Good vibrations

Macro Man can feel the squeeze coming....so he takes profits on short NZD/CHF at 0.8268 spot basis (0.8233 to April 4)...perhaps services ISM will be the catalyst to recovery (for a few hours at least.)

...or not, as the data was poor. Yet equities and bond yields refuse to go lower straight after. This market is ripe for a squeeze....brace yourselves!
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Anonymous
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March 5, 2007 at 6:39 PM ×

With all of the margin calls and extra option hedging going on in prime brokerage world that I hear of , I expect a huge rally as well

Bears are pushing their shorts , not making much headway

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Anonymous
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March 5, 2007 at 8:33 PM ×

I'm pushing my shorts and going to hold my breath till April 1st before I exhale. If you think there is good news going forward, let me borrow your stock - I promise to give it back with few dents in a few weeks.

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Macro Man
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March 5, 2007 at 9:22 PM ×

Yes, well the expectation of a bounce today was clearly wrong. I am guessing tomorrow's P/L will show that only too clearly.

However, I maintain that there are signs of near term capitulation across a number of markets, including equities. While that doesn't imply a bottom, it does raise the risk of a bounce.

Perhaps I've been a bit cute in trimming risky currency shorts and buying bond puts in anticipation of a bounce which, after all, I am looking to use to reset/add shorts.

Nevertheless, after a 6.6% peak to trough decline in more or less a straight line, I don't think a bounce is unreasonable. Particularly as short term shorts may wish to cover some of their risk ahead of Friday's payroll figure.

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