William Tell wake up, Switzerland has gone mad!



William Tell contemplating SNB's portfolio

On June 10th, Swiss voters will cast their votes on the Vollgeld referendum: "For crisis-safe money: Money creation by the National Bank only! (Sovereign Money Initiative)." 


What is it about?  The idea is to limit money creation to the central bank only. That would be the end of the fractional reserve banking system in Switzerland. This system has ruled the global financial system since the 17th century.  Fractional reserve banking allows that only a fraction of deposits held by banks are backed by central bank money.


The proponents of the referendum want to avoid another 2008 like bank bailout and argue that: " [...]under the 100% reserve system the central bank wouldn’t have complete control over the money supply, while it would under a sovereign money system. Further, under a 100% reserve system the possibility of a bank-run or the government having to rescue a bank is not completely eliminated, whereas it would be under a sovereign money system.”.  To control money creation the central can: "[...] to keep the amount of money in circulation stable or inject, the Swiss National Bank will need to re-introduce this money into the economy. It can do this in one of several ways: - by buying assets such as securities or foreign exchange reserves (as it can now) - by lending money directly to banks - by handing debt-free money directly to the government to be spent back into circulation or to reduce taxes or to be given directly to citizens.". These statements, coming from the vollgeld paper  have severe drawbacks, we will look at them later.



If this referendum were to succeed that would be a jump into the unknown. It would represent a complete change of Swiss banks business model and it would have massive consequences for the Swiss economy. Some figures will help put this in perspective: Swiss banks provide loans worth 2 times GDP; the financial sector is about 10% of GDP and employs 5% of the labor force.


Some will say it is not that easy to pass a referendum, the yes must get more than 50% of the votes at the national level plus win in a majority of the 26 Cantons. Moreover, a recent poll by gfs.bern shows No at 49%, Yes at 35% and Undecided at 16%, one out today from Tamedia shows No at 54%, Yes at 39%, Undecided at 7%.
It's not because something has a low chance of happening that it must be discarded completely especially given the consequences are so asymmetric.

The Swiss institutions (Confederation, SNB, Banks...) and most of the academics (a great paper from Philippe Bachetta can be found here) oppose the referendum initiative. I do share their arguments and will try to summarize them below.

The proposal would separate money and credit.  It will move away from the historical distribution of responsibilities between the SNB and the banking system.
The SNB will have to guarantee the supply of credit to the economy by the financial services providers. That would have to be done via securitized loans. The SNB will have to take credit risk and would have a more direct influence on lending. It creates a risk of political interference and a possible lack of competition in the banking sector. 
To be true credit risk is already present on SNB balance sheet via its 82 bios USD equity portfolio, but this is meant to be temporary, i.e. this is the Swiss version of a QE portfolio.


Sovereign money will limit liquidity and maturity transformation as banks cannot create deposits through lending. It will restrict supply of credit to households and small and medium size firms with no access to capital markets. The referendum initiative does not address the too big to fail issue as misjudgement and over lending can still exist. It does not address the shadow banking issue either.


SNB will switch back to monetary targeting, that's back to the future! Central banks all over the world moved away from it 20 years ago for good reasons.




Sovereign money would be created “debt-free” rather than through SNB money market operations (purchasing securities or granting secured loans). It's not clear how money supply would be reduced when needed to.  It creates a huge uncertainty for the Swiss economy.

One of the problem with the underlying idea of money targeting is that is there is no historical link between money creation and credit provision.

M1 and Total Credit per GDP
 (The Sovereign Money Initiative in Switzerland: An Assessment Philippe Bacchetta, June 2017)



The other problems lie in the implementation of the change. 

As banks will transfer their customer's sight deposits to the SNB, they end up with a financing gap. Sight deposits minus reserves represent 25% of credit and 15% of banks’ balance sheets. The Vollgeld paper sees it happening in 2 steps:
1- SNB lends its reserves to fill the financing gap.
2- Banks need to find alternate sources of financing. It can borrow money from the Swiss National Bank, it can borrow from other banks, it can incentivize customers to place their money in savings accounts, it can issue shares or bonds.

It is not guaranteed that the new sources of funding will be more stable than the old client sight deposits. We could see an increase in savings deposits or Euro sight deposits which are not part of sovereign money.  It could lead to an increase in Euros transactions in Switzerland! We could see a switch to short term funding which is more volatile. 
Given sovereign money is a safe asset outside the banking sector, it will not take much for these funding sources to leave banks in time of crisis. Thus, the risk of bank runs is not reduced at all.

Let's now have a look at the economic impact.

As stated by Phillippe Bacchetta, the impact in the current state of negative rates would be very low. But... If normal positive rates were to come back, the impact can be up to -0.8%/annually.  This cost would be borne out by households and banks, it should be seen as a lower-bound, as other costs (implementation, regulation costs etc) are most difficult to assess.

What would be the market implications? According to Beat Siegenthaler at UBS, the CHF could appreciate as this would be seen as a road to tighter credit and restrictive monetary policy. The SNB might also argue it is not anymore allowed to intervene in the FX market. I'm not so sure about this outcome, I guess bank stocks would be hurt pretty badly as their profitability will be curtailed and the high uncertainty surrounding their replacement funding. Given this is an idiosyncratic issue, and the fact the SNB argument is contradicted by the Vollgeld paper I have a hard time to see CHF rally. 

As the Philippe Bacchetta puts it “It is to be hoped that all these costs and potential risks will be all well understood by Swiss voters.” 

There are numerous examples in recent history of why a very technical project should not be put to referendum, people will mostly vote to voice their concerns and fears rather than making an educated choice on the question asked. 
There is a snowball chance in hell that people will dig deep enough to get a thorough understanding of this technical issue. 

The current wave of populism makes me very nervous as to the outcome of this referendum. I hope the Swiss are immune to it.


MacroDiver



















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ANONYMOUS
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January 27, 2020 at 9:58 PM ×



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We are authorized financial consultants providing reliable loans to individuals and funding for business, home, personal and projects start up. Are you tired of seeking loans or are you in any financial mess. Do you have a low credit score, and you will find it difficult to get loans from banks and other financial institutions? then worry no more for we are the solution to your financial misfortune. we offer all types of loan ranging from $5,000.00 to $650,000,000.00USD with a low interest rate of 2% and loan duration of 1 to 35 years to pay back the loan secure and unsecured. Are you losing sleep at nights worrying how to get a Legit Loan Lender? If Yes worry no more for we are out here to help the less financial privileges get the loan they need to get back on their feet no matter your credit score, you can say goodbye to all your financial crisis and difficulties. Contact us on the following Call/Text +1(415)630-7138 Email drbenjaminfinance@gmail.com

Do you have a bad credit? Do you need money to pay bills? Do you need loan to buy, refinance or renovate your home? Is it necessary to start a new business? Do you have an unfinished project due to poor funding? Do you need money to invest in any specialty that will benefit you? BENJAMIN LOAN INVESTMENTS FINANCE aims is to provide excellent professional financial services which include the followings
*1 Personal loan
*2 Business loan
*3 Home loan
*4 Farm Loan
*5 Education loan
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*8 Car Loan
*9 Eviction Loan
*10 Equipment Loan
*11 Hotels Loan
*12 Refinancing Loan and many more

NOTE: GET YOUR INSTANT LOAN APPROVAL 100% GUARANTEED TODAY NO MATTER YOUR CREDIT SCORE. drbenjaminfinance@gmail.com

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+1(415)630-7138
drbenjaminfinance@gmail.com
We are certified and your privacy is 100% safe with us. Worry no more about your financial problems.

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Anonymous
admin
February 21, 2020 at 9:32 PM ×

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Anonymous
admin
February 21, 2020 at 9:35 PM ×

Goodday To EveryOne,


I am Luz Williams and am 33years old, You Know there are so many of us that are in dire need of financial help and it just doesn't seem that people understand our lives and financial situations what ever each of ours are! Do they?they dont I guess !! I was in very chronic financial and terminal health situation some few months ago after all my search for assistance from friends and neighbours proved abortive and due to this I had to swallow my pride by asking, searching, and always praying for a kind soul out there to help me and my kids who were droving outta school as a result of my inability to take up with their tuition fees properly since their dad was also late and due to this financial stress and rejection Sometimes I feel there is none who really truly cares. I wish that I could win some money so that I could solve my entire immediate family problems but it was all a mere dream as reality became so real to my face when I was unable to pay my light bills, and my food stuff bills and as a result I had no choice but to search for reputable loan agencies online that lease loans out to the needy but all I got was a bunch of scammers as I believed the very second lender I communicated with due to my desperation to get money ASAP and that made me send to him the only one money I had both on earth and in heaven which is $390 usd and after I sent this , they kept on asking for more and this made me mad that i had to shut down that email because i realized shits and i didn't bother going online to get any help anymore , because I didn't trust it anymore . I became so emaciated due to lack of good food and my 2 kids age 5 and 8 were not also good looking due to lack of proper care as a result of finance and one morning I saw an old time family fiend of my husband and I told him all I have been through and he said the only way he could help was to direct me to a good loan agency that also helped him and he explained too on how he was financially down and how he got boosted by this loan agency CALLED Elliot Olive LOAN FOUNDATION: elliotoliveloanfirm@yahoo.com OR elliotoliveloanfirm@gmail.com OR elliotoliveloanfirm@hotmail.com who gave him loan at an affordable rate and he further assured me that they were legit and not scammers and he also told me what was needed to be done { THE COMPANY ADMINISTRATIVE PROCEDURE} and he also gave me the email address of the Elliot Olive LOAN AGENCY: elliotoliveloanfirm@yahoo.com OR elliotoliveloanfirm@gmail.com OR elliotoliveloanfirm@hotmail.com and I contacted them as instructed and by the grace of GOD ALMIGHTY I was also granted my loan funds within 2 days without any stress or problems and this is why I have come here to give out my testimony and to let the people know that there are still real and reputable loan agencies online: elliotoliveloanfirm@yahoo.com OR elliotoliveloanfirm@gmail.com OR elliotoliveloanfirm@hotmail.com .... COntact this great man now using this email address: elliotoliveloanfirm@yahoo.com OR elliotoliveloanfirm@gmail.com OR elliotoliveloanfirm@hotmail.com and tell him that I Luz Williams gave you his email address to contact as he IS REAL, EFFICIENT, DYNAMIC AND 100% RELIABLE.......

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Unknown
admin
March 3, 2020 at 6:50 PM ×

RELIABLE BUSINESS/HOME/REAL ESTATES/COMPANY/PROJECT/PERSONAL LOAN OFFER TODAY? QUICK AND AFFORDABLE LOAN CONTACT US VIA Call/Text +1(415)630-7138 Email drbenjaminfinance@gmail.com

We are authorized financial consultants providing reliable loans to individuals and funding for business, home, personal and projects start up. Are you tired of seeking loans or are you in any financial mess. Do you have a low credit score, and you will find it difficult to get loans from banks and other financial institutions? then worry no more for we are the solution to your financial misfortune. we offer all types of loan ranging from $5,000.00 to $650,000,000.00USD with a low interest rate of 2% and loan duration of 1 to 35 years to pay back the loan secure and unsecured. Are you losing sleep at nights worrying how to get a Legit Loan Lender? If Yes worry no more for we are out here to help the less financial privileges get the loan they need to get back on their feet no matter your credit score, you can say goodbye to all your financial crisis and difficulties. Contact us on the following Call/Text +1(415)630-7138 Email drbenjaminfinance@gmail.com

Do you have a bad credit? Do you need money to pay bills? Do you need loan to buy, refinance or renovate your home? Is it necessary to start a new business? Do you have an unfinished project due to poor funding? Do you need money to invest in any specialty that will benefit you? BENJAMIN LOAN INVESTMENTS FINANCE aims is to provide excellent professional financial services which include the followings
*1 Personal loan
*2 Business loan
*3 Home loan
*4 Farm Loan
*5 Education loan
*6 Debt consolidation loan
*7 Truck Loan
*8 Car Loan
*9 Eviction Loan
*10 Equipment Loan
*11 Hotels Loan
*12 Refinancing Loan and many more

NOTE: GET YOUR INSTANT LOAN APPROVAL 100% GUARANTEED TODAY NO MATTER YOUR CREDIT SCORE. drbenjaminfinance@gmail.com

Yours Sincerely,
Dr Benjamin Scarlett Owen
+1(415)630-7138
drbenjaminfinance@gmail.com
We are certified and your privacy is 100% safe with us. Worry no more about your financial problems.

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John Keck
admin
March 10, 2020 at 11:47 AM ×

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unknow
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April 5, 2020 at 1:30 PM ×

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Unknown
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July 11, 2020 at 6:35 PM ×

My name is Sara Johnson, I live in california U.S.A and i am a happy woman today? I told my self that any Loan lender that could change my Life and that of my family after been scammed severally by these online loan lenders, i will refer any person that is looking for loan to Them. he gave happiness to me and my family, although at first i found it hard to trust him because of my experiences with past loan lenders, i was in need of a loan of $300,000.00 to start my life all over as a single parents with 2 kids, I met this honest and GOD fearing loan lender online Dr. Dave Logan that helped me with a loan of $300,000.00 U.S. Dollars, he is indeed a GOD fearing man, working with a reputable loan company. If you are in need of loan and you are 100% sure to pay back the loan please contact him on (daveloganloanfirm@gmail.com and Call/Text: +1(501)800-0690 ) .. and inform them Sara Johnson directed you.. Thanks. Blessed Be.

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Unknown
admin
August 18, 2020 at 8:23 AM ×

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October 11, 2020 at 11:49 AM ×

TESTIMONY ON HOW I GOT MY LOAN FROM A GENUINE FINANCE COMPANY LAST WEEK. Email for immediate response: drbenjaminfinance@gmail.com

I am Mrs,Leores Jazbel by name, I live in United State Of America, who have been a scam victim to so many fake lenders online between November last year till July this year but i thank my creator so much that he has finally smiled on me by directing me to this new lender who put a smile on my face this year 2020 and he did not scam me and also by not deceiving or lying to me and my friends but however this lending firm is BENJAMIN LOAN INVESTMENTS FINANCE (drbenjaminfinance@gmail.com) gave me 2% loan which amount is $900,000.00 united states dollars after my agreement to their company terms and conditions and one significant thing i love about this loan company is that they are fast and unique. {Dr.Benjamin Scarlet Owen} can also help you with a legit loan offer. He Has also helped some other colleagues of mine. If you need a genuine loan without cost/stress he his the right loan lender to wipe away your financial problems and crisis today. BENJAMIN LOAN INVESTMENTS FINANCE holds all of the information about how to obtain money quickly and painlessly via Call/Text: +1(415)630-7138 Email: drbenjaminfinance@gmail.com

When it comes to financial crisis and loan then BENJAMIN LOAN INVESTMENTS FINANCE is the place to go please just tell him I Mrs. Leores Jazbel direct you Good Luck.......................

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October 17, 2020 at 12:44 AM ×

TESTIMONY ON HOW I GOT MY LOAN FROM A GENUINE FINANCE COMPANY LAST WEEK. Email for immediate response: drbenjaminfinance@gmail.com

I am Mrs,Leores J Miguel by name, I live in United State Of America, who have been a scam victim to so many fake lenders online between November last year till July this year but i thank my creator so much that he has finally smiled on me by directing me to this new lender who put a smile on my face this year 2020 and he did not scam me and also by not deceiving or lying to me and my friends but however this lending firm is BENJAMIN LOAN INVESTMENTS FINANCE (drbenjaminfinance@gmail.com) gave me 2% loan which amount is $900,000.00 united states dollars after my agreement to their company terms and conditions and one significant thing i love about this loan company is that they are fast and unique. {Dr.Benjamin Scarlet Owen} can also help you with a legit loan offer. He Has also helped some other colleagues of mine. If you need a genuine loan without cost/stress he his the right loan lender to wipe away your financial problems and crisis today. BENJAMIN LOAN INVESTMENTS FINANCE holds all of the information about how to obtain money quickly and painlessly via Call/Text: +1(415)630-7138 Email: drbenjaminfinance@gmail.com

When it comes to financial crisis and loan then BENJAMIN LOAN INVESTMENTS FINANCE is the place to go please just tell him I Mrs. Leores Jazbel direct you Good Luck.......................


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Unknown
admin
January 4, 2021 at 5:54 PM ×

My name is Sara Johnson, I live in california U.S.A and i am a happy woman today? I told my self that any Loan lender that could change my Life and that of my family after been scammed severally by these online loan lenders, i will refer any person that is looking for loan to Them. he gave happiness to me and my family, although at first i found it hard to trust him because of my experiences with past loan lenders, i was in need of a loan of $300,000.00 to start my life all over as a single parents with 2 kids, I met this honest and GOD fearing loan lender online Dr. Dave Logan that helped me with a loan of $300,000.00 U.S. Dollars, he is indeed a GOD fearing man, working with a reputable loan company. If you are in need of loan and you are 100% sure to pay back the loan please contact him on (daveloganloanfirm@gmail.com and Call/Text: +1(501)800-0690 And Whatsapp: +1 (315) 640-3560 ) .. and inform them Sara Johnson directed you.. Thanks. Blessed Be.

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Unknown
admin
February 1, 2021 at 12:24 PM ×

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We are financial consultants providing reliable loans to individuals and funding for business, home and projects start up. Are you tired of seeking loans or are you in any financial mess. Do you have a low credit score, and you will find it difficult to get loans from banks and other financial institutions? then worry no more for we are the solution to your financial misfortune. we offer all types of loan ranging from $5,000.00 to $533,000,000.00USD with a low interest rate of 2% and loan duration of 1 to 35 years to pay back the loan secure and unsecured. Are you losing sleep at nights worrying how to get a Legit Loan Lender? Contact us via Whatsapp +19292227023 Email drbenjaminfinance@gmail.com

Share this to help a soul right now, Thanks

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February 8, 2021 at 5:23 AM ×

Dear Sir/Madam,

Do you need a quick long or short term Loan with a relatively low interest rate as low as 3%? We offer business Loan, personal Loan, home Loan, auto Loan,student Loan, debt consolidation Loan e.t.c. no matter your credit score.
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June 20, 2021 at 9:08 AM ×

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Joan Owens
admin
June 21, 2021 at 6:02 AM ×

Are you in dept Have you been denied of a loan from Bank Or do you need a loan to pay off bills worry no more,Your help comes now, Joan Financial Firm is a loan lending firm that offer all kinds of loan to people, firms and individuals who are in need of loan with a low interest rate of 2% contact us

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July 6, 2021 at 12:56 AM ×

Saya Harum Ahmadzulkifli dari Filipina dan saya tinggal di George Town Penang, Malaysia. Saya ingin menyaksikan pekerjaan Tuhan yang baik dalam hidup saya bagi orang-orang yang mencari pinjaman di Asia, terutama Malaysia dan Filipina dan bagian dunia lainnya, karena ekonomi yang buruk di beberapa negara.

Saya telah menjadi korban penipuan kredit, saya kehilangan banyak uang karena saya mencari pinjaman dari perusahaan mereka. Saya hampir diedit dalam proses karena saya ditangkap oleh orang-orang dari hutang saya sendiri, sebelum saya dibebaskan dari penjara.

Seorang teman saya menjelaskan situasi saya dan kemudian memberi tahu saya tentang kesaksian yang mereka lihat di media sosial dari Zulaikha Yugesh dari email zulaikhayugesh@gmail.com dan memperkenalkan saya pada pinjaman yang dapat dipercaya oleh pemasok, PERUSAHAAN PINJAMAN Ibu RIKA ANDERSON. Saya juga memverifikasi dari saksi lainnya Ayu Amangku email ayuamangku@gmail.com, dan Ibu Margaretha Asmara dari Ambon di Indonesia email margarethaasmaran@gmail.com dan whatsapp +6282340185186.

Saya mendapat pinjaman RM250.000 mata uang Malaysia dari Rika Anderson Loan Corporation dengan mudah dalam waktu 24 jam yang saya gunakan, dan sekarang saya telah memutuskan untuk membagikan pekerjaan baik ibu Rika di keluarga saya. Jika Anda membutuhkan pemberi pinjaman gen.

silakan hubungi Perusahaan Pinjaman Rika Anderson melalui
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Anda juga dapat menghubungi saya untuk informasi apapun melalui email saya, harumahmadzulkifli@gmail.com

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Joan Owens
admin
July 6, 2021 at 4:13 AM × This comment has been removed by the author.
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Joan Owens
admin
July 6, 2021 at 4:16 AM ×


Do you need a loan to start a business or to pay your bills? We give loan at 2% interest, if interested kindly contact us for more information

avia email: (contact@joanfinancefirm.com)
Whats-app: +919144909366
Website: www.joanfinancefirm.com

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August 18, 2021 at 8:39 AM ×

We provide the best loan at low interest rate without any extra burden that comes along with high rate debt. Do you need a quick loan for business or to pay bills at 3% interest rate? We offer business loan, personal loan, home loan, auto loan, student loan, debt consolidation loan e.t.c. no matter your credit score. We are guaranteed in giving out financial services to our numerous clients all over the world. contact us now on email: financialserviceoffer876@gmail.com
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Unknown
admin
September 3, 2021 at 2:56 AM ×

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HELLO
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Anonymous
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October 10, 2021 at 9:00 PM ×

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Unknown
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Bo
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April 14, 2022 at 4:32 PM ×

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Mar
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April 14, 2022 at 4:32 PM ×

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66number
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May 6, 2022 at 3:33 PM ×


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Hana Kareem
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May 16, 2022 at 8:38 AM ×

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Hana Kareem
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June 6, 2022 at 7:59 AM ×

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Hana Kareem
admin
June 9, 2022 at 7:20 AM ×

شكراً جزيلاً سريعًا ولكن عظيمًا لكل ما فعلته للمساعدة في تحقيق هذا الحلم بالنسبة لنا. إنه أمر جميل جدًا وما زلت أتأرجح من الواقع للحصول على منزل خاص بنا. لنا! أعلم أنك كنت تقوم فقط "بوظائفك" ولكن باختصار ما كان ليحدث بدونك. لذلك شكري الخالص مرة أخرى تريسي للتمويل. من فضلك يا رفاق إذا كنت بحاجة إلى قرض عاجل وموثوق ، يرجى الاتصال بـ Tracy Finance Firm حيث حصلنا على قرضنا لشراء منزل أحلامنا إذا كنت مهتمًا بالحصول على قرض ، يرجى الاتصال بهم الآن عبر التفاصيل أدناه:

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Hana Kareem
admin
June 25, 2022 at 9:03 AM ×

مرحبًا ، أنا سعيد جدًا الآن لأنني حصلت اليوم على قرض بقيمة 80 ألف دولار من هذه الشركة الجيدة بعد أن جربت العديد من الشركات الأخرى ولكن دون جدوى هنا رأيت إعلانات Tracy Finance Firm وقررت أن أجربها واتبعت جميع التعليمات. وهنا أنا سعيد ، يمكنك أيضًا الاتصال بهم إذا كنت بحاجة إلى قرض سريع ، فاتصل بهم الآن عبر هذا البريد الإلكتروني:

(info@tracyfinancefirm.com) أو
Whatsapp: +918448747044

شكرًا

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Hana Kareem
admin
July 16, 2022 at 8:46 AM ×

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Tracy james
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September 16, 2022 at 11:59 AM ×

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February 25, 2023 at 10:37 PM ×

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April 10, 2023 at 5:55 AM ×

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