Another Monday, and just when you thought the world couldn't get any more depressing, we now have to confront the remarkable spectacle of a US presidential candidate complaining that the election is rigged, several weeks before it occurs. Such an astonishing claim is more characteristic of a developing country where the enshrinement of democratic institutions is more fragile, and one can easily imagine the market enthusiastically selling the currency of such a nation. It says much about the state of the world that despite the political goiter afflicting the neck of the US dollar, it remains one of the best-looking options going.
Here are a few thoughts to consider as we head into a new week:
* Janet Yellen has been fairly parsimonious with her non-mandatory speaking engagements this year, so her comments from Friday at the Boston fed symposium are well worth a read beyond the headlines. Her list of questions for the economics profession, while not exactly Hilbert's problems for the 21st century, at least represents something of an acknowledgement that the current models are not working properly. She raised a number of the issues covered in this space recently, including productivity, corporate investment, savings ratios, and inflation expectations.
Your author had to laugh at the first question, however: Are there circumstances in which changes in aggregate demand can have an appreciable, persistent effect on aggregate supply? Any parent of a child who's run a lemonade stand can tell you that the more customers there are, the longer the stand stays open. If the customers dry up, the kids get bored, pack up, and do something else. Perhaps running a stand should be a prerequisite for obtaining an economics PhD?
* Macro Man wrote about AUD/NZD in late August, suggesting that a number of factors argued that it should be higher. This proved to be a bit of a kevlar glove operation, as spot dropped another couple of percent soon after he bought some in the mid 1.04's. However, the tide eventually turned and spot has started to catch up with the fundamentals. While Macro Man added in the 1.05's, he has now taken the whole position off as the misalignment isn't quite as extreme and 1.08 has proven to be a tough nut to crack. He'll look to reload again if we dip back into the 1.05's, or potentially if we confirm a break of the resistance.
* In what can only be described as a dangerous phenomenon, Macro Man is finding it increasingly difficult not to be bearish the back end of the US curve. Yeah, Yellen talked about letting the economy "run hot", which is a) straight out of the optimal control playbook that we were all talking about in 2013, and b) more or less what the Fed has been doing since 2010, with no notable increase in temperature. Still, narrative matters, particularly if and as inflation continues to push towards the target.
More prosaically, Rosengren's suggestion in Friday to target the yield curve through the balance sheet offers the prospect of an unexpected source of supply...as long as the FOMC doesn't jelly out like the BOJ and target 10's at zero interest rates! Still, the chart stinks and looks like going lower in price/higher in yield.
* Finally, although sterling has fallen precipitously, Macro Man can reveal that it needs to drop a lot more to reach the MEER (Marmite equilibrium exchange rate):
On a slightly more serious tone, perhaps the most troubling thing about the whole Brexit fiasco is the poisonous tone in which debate is conducted, both amongst public officials and members of the proletariat. One of the things that Macro Man loved most about living in the UK was the sense of humour that pervaded public and private life. That trait has been conspicuous by its absence on both sides, and nuance has been kicked into touch. One hates to write in melodramatic terms about a country losing its soul...but at the very least, the UK is going to need to do some searching for it.
Editor's note: This is not an invitation to rehash spiteful arguments in the comments section. Leave your ad hominem attacks at home.
Here are a few thoughts to consider as we head into a new week:
* Janet Yellen has been fairly parsimonious with her non-mandatory speaking engagements this year, so her comments from Friday at the Boston fed symposium are well worth a read beyond the headlines. Her list of questions for the economics profession, while not exactly Hilbert's problems for the 21st century, at least represents something of an acknowledgement that the current models are not working properly. She raised a number of the issues covered in this space recently, including productivity, corporate investment, savings ratios, and inflation expectations.
Your author had to laugh at the first question, however: Are there circumstances in which changes in aggregate demand can have an appreciable, persistent effect on aggregate supply? Any parent of a child who's run a lemonade stand can tell you that the more customers there are, the longer the stand stays open. If the customers dry up, the kids get bored, pack up, and do something else. Perhaps running a stand should be a prerequisite for obtaining an economics PhD?
* Macro Man wrote about AUD/NZD in late August, suggesting that a number of factors argued that it should be higher. This proved to be a bit of a kevlar glove operation, as spot dropped another couple of percent soon after he bought some in the mid 1.04's. However, the tide eventually turned and spot has started to catch up with the fundamentals. While Macro Man added in the 1.05's, he has now taken the whole position off as the misalignment isn't quite as extreme and 1.08 has proven to be a tough nut to crack. He'll look to reload again if we dip back into the 1.05's, or potentially if we confirm a break of the resistance.
* In what can only be described as a dangerous phenomenon, Macro Man is finding it increasingly difficult not to be bearish the back end of the US curve. Yeah, Yellen talked about letting the economy "run hot", which is a) straight out of the optimal control playbook that we were all talking about in 2013, and b) more or less what the Fed has been doing since 2010, with no notable increase in temperature. Still, narrative matters, particularly if and as inflation continues to push towards the target.
More prosaically, Rosengren's suggestion in Friday to target the yield curve through the balance sheet offers the prospect of an unexpected source of supply...as long as the FOMC doesn't jelly out like the BOJ and target 10's at zero interest rates! Still, the chart stinks and looks like going lower in price/higher in yield.
* Finally, although sterling has fallen precipitously, Macro Man can reveal that it needs to drop a lot more to reach the MEER (Marmite equilibrium exchange rate):
On a slightly more serious tone, perhaps the most troubling thing about the whole Brexit fiasco is the poisonous tone in which debate is conducted, both amongst public officials and members of the proletariat. One of the things that Macro Man loved most about living in the UK was the sense of humour that pervaded public and private life. That trait has been conspicuous by its absence on both sides, and nuance has been kicked into touch. One hates to write in melodramatic terms about a country losing its soul...but at the very least, the UK is going to need to do some searching for it.
Editor's note: This is not an invitation to rehash spiteful arguments in the comments section. Leave your ad hominem attacks at home.
52 comments
Click here for commentsnot trying to be political/zh, but wikileaks tweeted JA's internet access has been cut off by a "state actor", contingency plans have been activated, and they sent out 3 tweets with hashes/keys (?) labelled with "John Kerry" ,"Ecudor", and UK FCO.
Replycould be a total fizzer, but WL has good record so there is an off chance of a bombshell? Could be a bit of a ride as Trump as been counted out by all of msm (and probably markets too).
dont care either way but may get a bit more volatility this week.
No spite ,simple comment to reply to " searching for soul". Don't you think that is exactly what we are doing where soul is simply an allegorical reference? Come really live here ,be intimate with the place on a daily basis, live that for some decades so you really understand the 'heartbeat' of the place and I will thereafter treat any dialogue as though it comes experientially. I am sorry ,but without that there is so much room for bias based upon media 'noise' that it's somewhat difficult to engage. You are right though ,the engagement as been awful and even now after the vote I am sorry to say one cannot enter the media without finding it loaded with one-sided arguments based upon fear attempting to scare us poor peasants back onto the righteous side. That is of the course the one that knows how to read, how to reason, is not misguided etc etc. I try in life to remain objective knowing full well reason and emotion rarely mix well ,but I have to tell you I am tempted on occasion to lump some of these people up alongside the head and to hell with the consequences. If someone like I can be pushed to that extent then you can well guess the current general mood where emotion runs higher. To be honest I think we are on the verge of saying 'you want an economic war , then you can have it'.
ReplyI would say to some people regarding this issue you would do well to remember "You catch more flies with honey than you do with vinegar".
Any world where 300 million 'souls' could give someone like Trump a legitimate opportunity to become the most powerful politician in the world as more than enough problems to deal with without mocking the rational of some people who are attempting to vote for their self interest.
Near term: Short UK. Long USA.
ReplyLong term: Short Europe. Long USA.
I have long thought that electing Trump would be a complete disaster, but I am starting to wonder if electing Hillary would be even worse.
ReplyIn my time (seventh decade now), I have only seen one other major party Presidential candidate with so much disdain for ordinary people (Nixon), and only one who I less wanted to have his or her finger on the nuclear button (that would be John McCain - who possesses all of Hillary's violent temper, but none of her intelligence).
Moving back to the markets, while they obviously want to see a Clinton victory, I don't think they would be so happy with a Congress controlled by the Democrats, as well. Supposedly, the chances of that happening are about twenty percent - roughly the same chance (at this moment) as Trump winning.
One final flight of fantasy - if Trump were elected, I think he would be relatively easy to remove. The first time he stepped out of line, there would be plenty of Republicans in both chambers more than ready to vote for impeachment.
Any thoughts on a target for US 10 year. 2.2% where we started the year? Bund chart also on edge. This looks too good to bd true. Risk parity guys must be worried and replay of sept move might happen,,,or not, which has been the case for the past 5 years, whenever something too good to be true sets up, its lasts 3 days and then is done.
ReplyAny thoughts on a target for US 10 year. 2.2% where we started the year? Bund chart also on edge. This looks too good to bd true. Risk parity guys must be worried and replay of sept move might happen,,,or not, which has been the case for the past 5 years, whenever something too good to be true sets up, its lasts 3 days and then is done.
ReplyUk Gilts have been taking a thumping and are likely to take more before it is over. Trying to be objective here though they were during the first half of the year one of the better long positions to be in and as I said back in the latter stages of summer they appeared to be devoid of future value regardless of one's economic outlook. This I think is always a problem for markets that have stormed ahead and need a good dose of mean reversion to reset.
ReplyUK judge dismisses Libya’s complaint against Goldman Sachs after seven week trial. Libya was unable to show proof that they were taken advantage of after all nine futures trades totaling $1.2 billion went to zero. Seems to me, and the judge agreed, this trial was not about the use of entertainment that included prostitutes in order to secure business. However, it should have been about the advice Libya’s Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) received that earned hundreds of millions for GS but turned every trade into zero for the SWF.
ReplyLibya may appeal this verdict. I hope they do because I think ultimately the financial world deserves to know precisely which trades were put on so that expert traders could determine the prospects for a positive outcome at the time. In fact, I think the trial should have focused on the quality of advice and the role of Goldman Sachs as both agent and principal in futures markets.
Libya made the mistake of taking this issue to court. I understand they have other ways of settling disputes :)
In any case, SOCIETE-GENERALE is next to come to trial, and that lawsuit is for $2.1 billion in sought for damages.
http://www.4-traders.com/SOCIETE-GENERALE-4702/news/Societe-Generale-Goldman-Sachs-vindicated-but-bruised-in-court-battle-with-Libyan-fund-23221327/
Love the MEER indicator
ReplyCentral Bank Assets now at $21 Trillion nearly one third of combined market capitalization of every stock in the world
Replyhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-16/big-central-bank-assets-jump-fastest-in-5-years-to-21-trillion
Re: MEER, surely it's the opposite. GBP needs to appreciate a lot in order to achieve Marmite price equivalence across the Pond.
ReplyRe: MEER, surely it's the opposite. GBP needs to appreciate a lot in order to achieve Marmite price equivalence across the Pond.
ReplyYes of course you're right, but that rather spoils the joke, doesn't it?
ReplyNot a big fan of Trump, BUT I do understand why people are fans of his. Narrow mindedness has yielded become a bumper crop this year.
ReplyI am not a great writer, but Chris Arnade (who is a Clinton supporter!) has done the tough business of getting out there and understanding the political divide. So few have...
A quote, "The politicians that represent the expert class, Jeb Bush, Tony Blair, Hillary Clinton, Timothy Geithner, Larry Summers, are very clever, very smart, very informed. They also really struggle to just say, Sorry, I fucked up. (Think how Jeb stumbled so badly when asked was the war a mistake. That is partly why he lost so badly to Trump, who had no problems saying it was.)
To many voters burned over the last X years, it all ends up sounding like a big “Granted, however…..”
Granted your wages have stagnated for 40 years. Granted we went to war under false pretense. Granted we bailed out the big banks and not the general public. However, ……….”
If you disagree with the Leave crowd. Disagree with Trump. Admit the faults of the last X years. Be humble. Understand not everyone sees PhD’s as the chosen ones.
Understand elites and experts, HAVE made big mistakes."
People support Trump, Brexit etc. for very real and valid reasons, even if you don't agree with them.
More here:
https://medium.com/@Chris_arnade/granted-however-b4952207ab9b#.tdvckx3pi
https://medium.com/@Chris_arnade/trump-politics-and-option-pricing-or-why-trump-voters-are-not-idiots-1e364a4ed940#.4ehgx9r94
@Marshall that is very correct - markets teach us some important lessons that are rather applicable to other walks of life - saying 'I f@#D up' is tantamount to stopping out of a trade, and in my experience, the flexibility to get out of a losing proposition has always seemed to me to be negatively correlated with ones 'smartness' - multiple people have told me that over the years, they became better traders even as they seemed to lose conventional IQ points!
ReplyI think at some level the fault lies in our education system, that rewards 'having all the answers' as superior to 'asking the right questions' - once someone is in their 20's and working on their economics dissertation at U Chicago, those tendencies are ingrained.
@ Marshall The problem is that too many people on both sides of the debate are more interested in echo chambers than on understanding the arguments pro and con. It is, however, a dangerous environment when facts become an active detriment to debate. (In the Brexit debate, of course, there are relatively few facts but a lot of forecasts, which are nowhere near as good as facts but probably still better than guesses and clearly superior to hopes.)
Reply@ MM - I understand on the echo chambers comment for sure. I have to work hard to make sure my daily research and opinion come from all sides.
ReplyAs a side note I was having a interesting conversation that blames the current vitriolic political atmosphere on big-tech. In tech's quest to perfect the most efficient advertising delivery platform they have unintentionally created a system whereby each person lives within their own bubble curated and provided by content delivery algorithms. It's advertising's evil offspring!
Can anyone please explain to me how Yellen's dovish commentary on Friday is bullish for the dollar? Also, Re LB, do you still see the Yen appreciating?
ReplyHere, here, washed @ 3:21. Reminds me of a favorite PTJ quote: “Certain people have a greater proclivity for [macro trading] because they don’t have the need to feel intellectually superior to the crowd. It’s very hard to find a pure fundamentalist who’s also a very successful macro trader because it is so hard to have a hit rate north of 50 percent. The exceptions are in trading the very front end of interest rate curves or in specializing in just a few commodities or assets.”
ReplyI have been thinking about the political divisions discussed of late (Brexit/Bremain, Trump/Clinton etc), and more importantly the chief cause of this division. It's become clear to me that the causes lie with central banks, and corrupt-capitalism.
ReplyWe would all like truly free markets, but central banks have destroyed any such idea, causing asset bubbles and massive mis-allocations of capital. This has resulted in job losses, lack of investment, market bubbles and catastrophic debt.
Maybe it's time central bankers were put on trial for causing the problems that are starting to tear society apart?
"People support Trump, Brexit etc. for very real and valid reasons, even if you don't agree with them."
ReplyAs someone who voted for Brexit I cannot tell you how much I resent that issue and Trump being associated in the same sentence. Frankly, it once again suggests that those who voted to leave are some dumb simple minded schmucks who cannot differentiate between real issues/arguments and arseholes like Trump who think they just have to shout the loudest with the most abuse and somehow we will believe him if it sounds like what we want to hear. It's right up there with blaming banks as the sole raison d'etre for a global financial recession. As usual the issues are multi facted and complex ,but I guess it's easier for all sides to overlook that and attempt to dumb it all down to simplistic soundbite and stereotypes. I actually think my fellow man is actually a bit more intelligent than that notwithstanding there are those who are not.
@checkmate - well said !
ReplyI just see these democratic ructions and developments as merely the echo chamber to the financial crisis. In a not dissimilar way to the years following the Great Crash of 1929. We may not have chosen to have taken our medicine in exactly the same way as then (welfare state and extreme monetary policy settings), but if you think of the economy as a balloon - you push it one way and it appears in another no matter what. What we've chosen is for the majority of people to depress their wages and erode their cash savings, whilst for those growing up is not to be able to afford their own home or a decent pension - the two biggest purchases an individual typically makes in their lives.
ReplyMonetary policy has been more about picking winners and losers and trying to keep a lid on things rather than curing them. Although having said that, the idea of curve steepening gives me real hope if we combine it with higher taxes/fiscal response and deleveraging in a similar way to post WW2. And we really will probably have to have tax levels that high for the very rich and better off. Which means taking the political controls away from the extremely rich. Interesting as it plays out over the decades - it will probably be easier to create a narrative in distant hindsight than living in the midst of it.
Meanwhile the fascists recently put in in charge of the UK appear to be exerting themselves by targeting free speech once again, Assange and Russia Today being the organs targeted.
Reply@ checkmate - I'm not trying to call Brexit and Trump the same, but I feel they have similar sources. Feel free to disagree with me! Trump is only a figure-head of a larger problem of inequality in the US and the viewpoints associated with each side. I think at it's heart it's the same in the UK.
ReplyAs the author Chris Arnade (from above) says, "You can scrap this entire analysis as silly if you want, but please try and understand the core point missing from much of the current dialogue — large parts of the US have become completely isolated, socially and economically.
Kids are growing up in towns where by six, or seven, or eleven, they are doomed to be viewed as second class. They feel unvalued. They feel stuck. They are mocked. And there is nothing they feel they can do about it.When they turn to religion for worth, they are seen by the elites as uneducated, irrational, clowns. When they turn to identity through race they are racists. Regardless of their color.
The only thing they can do, faced with that, is break the fucking system. And they are going to try. Either by Trump or by some other way."
Given the geographic distribution of Leave vs. Remain, is it not very similar?
@Hotairmail: "Monetary policy has been more about picking winners and losers and trying to keep a lid on things rather than curing them."
ReplyI think we have discussed this before elsewhere. Monetary policy and in particular, inflation targeting, has always been about picking winners and losers. Raising rates to create unemployment and restrain inflation (the central bank playbook of the latter half of the 20th century) picked marginal workers as losers and savers and non marginal workers as winners. To what extent policy to avoid deflation picks the same or different winners/losers is surely the key question and even more than that to what extent any kind of socially beneficial monetary (and fiscal) policy could in theory approach some kind of genuine neutrality.
Michael Pettis wrote a fantastic piece back in March about the "Jacksonian impulse" driving (a large portion of) Trump's supporters:
Replyhttp://blog.mpettis.com/2016/03/the-re-emergence-of-the-jacksonians/
It is a bit of a long read, but well worth it:
"But while they have nearly always been unlucky or foolish in who they end up choosing as their leaders, the Jacksonians have still managed to disrupt the political establishment in ways that proved pretty permanent, and they are doing so again. As absurd as Trump may be, he channels their sans-culottes hatred of the elite in ways that might actually strengthen democratic institutions."
I have no personal experience of the UK or whether the mindset Pettis describes is present in the Brexit movement, and can certainly understand why others would prefer not to be compared to the movement around Trump. But perhaps the broader sense of outrage Pettis describes is more appropriate.
And one hopes that Pettis' conclusion will ring true in both UK and US, "perhaps it is not just coincidence that any period in which there has been a significant downward redistribution of wealth seems to have been preceded by a period in which the Jacksonians have done well."
@hawkeye, thanks for the link - a jolly sensible and well written article. I certainly think much of it applies to the Brexit situation although I think the Brexit situation quite a bit more nuanced as well as deriving much of its character from the fact it was a one-off event, a use-it-or-lose it chance to cast a vote that actually mattered regardless of the issue (EU structure, immigration, anti-establishment) driving the voting decision.
ReplyI mean, its not like the US population won't get a chance to pick new candidates and vote for president again and I think Pettis is correct that there will be new Jacksonian candidates (and likely stronger ones) to pick from next time. The Brexit vote was not ultimately about personalities for most people, where as the Trump situation does seem to me to revolve on personality much more strongly.
It'll be interesting to see how the US national vote for trump compares to the 48/52 split we had with Brexit.
Markets wax and wane. Countries wax and wane. Cultures wax and wane. Nearly everything does. While we here in the US have been going through a serious waning period which may yet last awhile, we will likely wax again. Whether in 5, 50 or 500 or more years I am not sure.
ReplyThe general ideas underlying the American Experiment, deriving as they do from some great 17th and 19th century thinkers in mostly north west Europe, are sound. The Founders made a few mistakes. First the issue of slavery had not yet been resolved and was a blight on the founding. That aside, the lack of a mechanism allowing term limits which were then invalidated on very poor legal grounds by SCOTUS will I think prove to be the death knell for the current round. But the business of America is business and the embracing of the possibility of failure and starting over in business and life a strong force for dynamism. So in the absence of Rasputin like advisors counseling week dollar for political gain, the trend in Dollar should be up. Unless something like a liquidity crunch brought on by rate rises in overnight money threatens the mass of carry trades in some way, causing a period of unwinding. Oh wait...
LB, wasn't it Obama who just requested a revenge cyber attack? Funny how he can't seem to disconnect ISIS from the internet.
ReplyBritain already has pre detention laws and all sorts of laws limiting free speech, all passed by the previous party in power.
anonymous @ 9:50am
ReplyWhen I read your comment
"One final flight of fantasy - if Trump were elected, I think he would be relatively easy to remove. The first time he stepped out of line, there would be plenty of Republicans in both chambers more than ready to vote for impeachment"
to my wife she reminded me that Trump promised to break the gridlock in Congress.
The oracle of Delphi would be proud!
While the issues surrounding Brexit seem to me more complicated than Trump's brutish populism, there clearly are parallels. Just look at Nigel Farage's speeches in support of Trump!
ReplyAUDNZD - I entered at 1.05 thinking to exit as well given 1.08 has considerable support
ReplyHowever its just nudging 1.07 right now so see what happens on overnight trade
"As someone who voted for Brexit I cannot tell you how much I resent that issue and Trump being associated in the same sentence. Frankly, it once again suggests that those who voted to leave are some dumb simple minded schmucks who cannot differentiate between real issues/arguments and arseholes like Trump who think they just have to shout the loudest with the most abuse and somehow we will believe him if it sounds like what we want to hear"
ReplyCheckmate, while I appreciate that you analyzed the arguments for and against Brexit before your affirmative vote (I would have voted the same way), there clearly were some "dumb simple minded schmucks who cannot differentiate between real issues/arguments," just as there are some Trump supporters who are racist, xenophobic, and so forth. There are also Trump voters (I am putting myself in this category) who have analyzed what the candidates are likely to do if elected (not much - the only thing presidents have real control over is foreign policy), and decided that electing Donald Trump will produce a superior outcome to electing Hillary Clinton (they are both "arseholes," in my opinion).
The strong common theme between the U.S. presidential election and Brexit is a continuation of policies of the elite, by the elite, and for the elite. The harm of these policies to the non-elite has become more and more obvious over recent years.
Argh no macro on this page today! Ok I'll try.
ReplyI doubled my short on USO. With Iran/Iraq/Libya not playing ball Opec is just trying to talk up the price. There are strong incentives for them all to pump and cheat each other. Russia and Saudi both need the cash, and with eg the US exporting natural gas they don't have the energy sway everyone seems to think they do. Can book the roll yield as well.
Holding shorts in Deltic timber, Pandora media (though pandora jewellery looks interesting as a long, would be fun to pair them up), GoPro, Santos etc. Kicking myself for not shooting at Lending Club, always though it made no sense but from a consumer perspective. Massively underprice dodgy credit, and now they've had to lift their rates so high what's the point?
Natural gas in Australia is ridic - huge overinvestment, all exporting, now coming on line just in time for a total market over supply.
I don't know what's going on in rates. I put my short sale proceeds in various credit and treasuries, in the hope that rate rises will be comfortably covered by profits in the short book. I'm also hoping my US equities keep me out of trouble if US inflation surprises.
Wouldn't mind finding a breakup trade on the EU... Short Italy/Long Treasuries makes sense and doesn't really cost anything. Maybe there's something better?
ps pro leave for constitutional reasons and pro Hilary while she's the only thing standing between Trump and the presidency.
Though Theresa May once forced me to leave the country as a young unemployed oxford grad. Ice cold.
@ johno
Replybut are there any good macro traders left in today's market. I cant think of many aside from Risk Parity Bridgewater. Seems most old school guys like PTJ, Moore, Caxton etc are having a tough go at it. Would love to hear whom you guys think is good today
I agree with Checkmate, Brexit is rational, Trump is not. However, I think voting for Trump as the better choice than Hillary is rational, but I would also say voting for Hillary as better choice than Trump is also rational.
ReplyCommon thread to both Brexit and Trump is immigration. For blue collar white guy in US, massive illegal immigration of Mexicans has been a disaster. Really it has been worse for blacks, but they are dems and dems need hispanics, so blacks cannot complain.
What many elites fail to accept is that open borders with the safety net that is in place in developed countries is a problem. Those less elite who face this reality on a daily basis have accepted this truth much faster. Hence, Brexit and Trump.
To me likely outcome of election is bullish. Trump loses. Pubs retain control of house. Senate could go either way, but who cares.
So maybe rally after (or right before) elections, making 12yo HFM richer?
No doubt OPEC is playing games with oil, but I still do not see supply exceeding demand in 2017, so to be short you have very nimble.
do not trust the polls - do not trust the media, it's all rigged
Replyhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5IuJGHuIkzY
you guys have not learned your lesson on Brexit? it was only 4 months ago
my money is on Trump and it's gonna shock markets. America is destroying itself and the enemy of the US was Washington DC all along while folks were busy pointing elsewhere far and beyond their border
Trump is a dick, but he is also the only guy who is against the DC system hence the only person paradoxically who can save this country.
Nico ... how do you think the bond/equity markets will react after a Trump win?
ReplyNico, that link though :-) I was more certain it was rigged before I started to watch that clip.
ReplyHere's a hint: Trump isn't moaning about the election being rigged because he thinks he's going to win.
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