tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post2059313445628812409..comments2024-03-19T03:05:57.184+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Monday bluesMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger41125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-18502667821809964592016-10-18T12:27:54.954+01:002016-10-18T12:27:54.954+01:00Here's a hint: Trump isn't moaning about t...Here's a hint: Trump isn't moaning about the election being rigged because he thinks he's going to win.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-60436648852913759922016-10-18T12:09:34.805+01:002016-10-18T12:09:34.805+01:00Nico, that link though :-) I was more certain it w...Nico, that link though :-) I was more certain it was rigged before I started to watch that clip.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-11024373600839746772016-10-18T03:29:44.682+01:002016-10-18T03:29:44.682+01:00Nico ... how do you think the bond/equity markets ...Nico ... how do you think the bond/equity markets will react after a Trump win?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-72316466982584546122016-10-18T03:06:14.313+01:002016-10-18T03:06:14.313+01:00do not trust the polls - do not trust the media, i...do not trust the polls - do not trust the media, it's all rigged<br /><br />https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5IuJGHuIkzY<br /><br />you guys have not learned your lesson on Brexit? it was only 4 months ago<br /><br />my money is on Trump and it's gonna shock markets. America is destroying itself and the enemy of the US was Washington DC all along while folks were busy pointing elsewhere far and beyond their border<br /><br />Trump is a dick, but he is also the only guy who is against the DC system hence the only person paradoxically who can save this country.Nicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-31177360977192669982016-10-18T02:25:07.562+01:002016-10-18T02:25:07.562+01:00I agree with Checkmate, Brexit is rational, Trump ...I agree with Checkmate, Brexit is rational, Trump is not. However, I think voting for Trump as the better choice than Hillary is rational, but I would also say voting for Hillary as better choice than Trump is also rational. <br />Common thread to both Brexit and Trump is immigration. For blue collar white guy in US, massive illegal immigration of Mexicans has been a disaster. Really it has been worse for blacks, but they are dems and dems need hispanics, so blacks cannot complain.<br />What many elites fail to accept is that open borders with the safety net that is in place in developed countries is a problem. Those less elite who face this reality on a daily basis have accepted this truth much faster. Hence, Brexit and Trump. <br />To me likely outcome of election is bullish. Trump loses. Pubs retain control of house. Senate could go either way, but who cares. <br />So maybe rally after (or right before) elections, making 12yo HFM richer?<br />No doubt OPEC is playing games with oil, but I still do not see supply exceeding demand in 2017, so to be short you have very nimble.Flowthroughhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15148652861530523764noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-49212302783937373032016-10-18T02:10:47.964+01:002016-10-18T02:10:47.964+01:00@ johno
but are there any good macro traders left...@ johno<br /><br />but are there any good macro traders left in today's market. I cant think of many aside from Risk Parity Bridgewater. Seems most old school guys like PTJ, Moore, Caxton etc are having a tough go at it. Would love to hear whom you guys think is good todayabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-12186084942801159622016-10-18T00:02:15.020+01:002016-10-18T00:02:15.020+01:00Argh no macro on this page today! Ok I'll try....Argh no macro on this page today! Ok I'll try. <br /><br />I doubled my short on USO. With Iran/Iraq/Libya not playing ball Opec is just trying to talk up the price. There are strong incentives for them all to pump and cheat each other. Russia and Saudi both need the cash, and with eg the US exporting natural gas they don't have the energy sway everyone seems to think they do. Can book the roll yield as well. <br /><br />Holding shorts in Deltic timber, Pandora media (though pandora jewellery looks interesting as a long, would be fun to pair them up), GoPro, Santos etc. Kicking myself for not shooting at Lending Club, always though it made no sense but from a consumer perspective. Massively underprice dodgy credit, and now they've had to lift their rates so high what's the point? <br /><br />Natural gas in Australia is ridic - huge overinvestment, all exporting, now coming on line just in time for a total market over supply. <br /><br />I don't know what's going on in rates. I put my short sale proceeds in various credit and treasuries, in the hope that rate rises will be comfortably covered by profits in the short book. I'm also hoping my US equities keep me out of trouble if US inflation surprises.<br /><br />Wouldn't mind finding a breakup trade on the EU... Short Italy/Long Treasuries makes sense and doesn't really cost anything. Maybe there's something better?<br /><br />ps pro leave for constitutional reasons and pro Hilary while she's the only thing standing between Trump and the presidency.<br /><br />Though Theresa May once forced me to leave the country as a young unemployed oxford grad. Ice cold. sydneypunternoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-36858586207071951872016-10-17T22:37:51.009+01:002016-10-17T22:37:51.009+01:00"As someone who voted for Brexit I cannot tel..."As someone who voted for Brexit I cannot tell you how much I resent that issue and Trump being associated in the same sentence. Frankly, it once again suggests that those who voted to leave are some dumb simple minded schmucks who cannot differentiate between real issues/arguments and arseholes like Trump who think they just have to shout the loudest with the most abuse and somehow we will believe him if it sounds like what we want to hear"<br /><br />Checkmate, while I appreciate that you analyzed the arguments for and against Brexit before your affirmative vote (I would have voted the same way), there clearly were <b>some</b> "dumb simple minded schmucks who cannot differentiate between real issues/arguments," just as there are <b>some</b> Trump supporters who are racist, xenophobic, and so forth. There are also Trump voters (I am putting myself in this category) who have analyzed what the candidates are likely to do if elected (not much - the only thing presidents have real control over is foreign policy), and decided that electing Donald Trump will produce a superior outcome to electing Hillary Clinton (they are both "arseholes," in my opinion).<br /><br />The strong common theme between the U.S. presidential election and Brexit is a continuation of policies of the elite, by the elite, and for the elite. The harm of these policies to the non-elite has become more and more obvious over recent years.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-44748191645538297722016-10-17T22:36:47.074+01:002016-10-17T22:36:47.074+01:00AUDNZD - I entered at 1.05 thinking to exit as wel...AUDNZD - I entered at 1.05 thinking to exit as well given 1.08 has considerable support <br /><br />However its just nudging 1.07 right now so see what happens on overnight tradeTraderJimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17870637335405087110noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39815668701427889052016-10-17T21:09:19.066+01:002016-10-17T21:09:19.066+01:00While the issues surrounding Brexit seem to me mor...While the issues surrounding Brexit seem to me more complicated than Trump's brutish populism, there clearly are parallels. Just look at Nigel Farage's speeches in support of Trump!yassanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-23389309542187887692016-10-17T21:01:19.657+01:002016-10-17T21:01:19.657+01:00anonymous @ 9:50am
When I read your comment
&qu...anonymous @ 9:50am<br /><br />When I read your comment <br /><br />"One final flight of fantasy - if Trump were elected, I think he would be relatively easy to remove. The first time he stepped out of line, there would be plenty of Republicans in both chambers more than ready to vote for impeachment"<br /><br />to my wife she reminded me that Trump promised to break the gridlock in Congress.<br /><br />The oracle of Delphi would be proud!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-17915158834394191432016-10-17T20:07:31.325+01:002016-10-17T20:07:31.325+01:00LB, wasn't it Obama who just requested a reven...LB, wasn't it Obama who just requested a revenge cyber attack? Funny how he can't seem to disconnect ISIS from the internet.<br /><br />Britain already has pre detention laws and all sorts of laws limiting free speech, all passed by the previous party in power.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-87823711703704555612016-10-17T19:49:00.582+01:002016-10-17T19:49:00.582+01:00Markets wax and wane. Countries wax and wane. Cu...Markets wax and wane. Countries wax and wane. Cultures wax and wane. Nearly everything does. While we here in the US have been going through a serious waning period which may yet last awhile, we will likely wax again. Whether in 5, 50 or 500 or more years I am not sure.<br /><br />The general ideas underlying the American Experiment, deriving as they do from some great 17th and 19th century thinkers in mostly north west Europe, are sound. The Founders made a few mistakes. First the issue of slavery had not yet been resolved and was a blight on the founding. That aside, the lack of a mechanism allowing term limits which were then invalidated on very poor legal grounds by SCOTUS will I think prove to be the death knell for the current round. But the business of America is business and the embracing of the possibility of failure and starting over in business and life a strong force for dynamism. So in the absence of Rasputin like advisors counseling week dollar for political gain, the trend in Dollar should be up. Unless something like a liquidity crunch brought on by rate rises in overnight money threatens the mass of carry trades in some way, causing a period of unwinding. Oh wait...t0mmy berghttp://bangpath.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-70172909670347609262016-10-17T19:29:26.619+01:002016-10-17T19:29:26.619+01:00@hawkeye, thanks for the link - a jolly sensible a...@hawkeye, thanks for the link - a jolly sensible and well written article. I certainly think much of it applies to the Brexit situation although I think the Brexit situation quite a bit more nuanced as well as deriving much of its character from the fact it was a one-off event, a use-it-or-lose it chance to cast a vote that actually mattered regardless of the issue (EU structure, immigration, anti-establishment) driving the voting decision. <br /><br />I mean, its not like the US population won't get a chance to pick new candidates and vote for president again and I think Pettis is correct that there will be new Jacksonian candidates (and likely stronger ones) to pick from next time. The Brexit vote was not ultimately about personalities for most people, where as the Trump situation does seem to me to revolve on personality much more strongly. <br /><br />It'll be interesting to see how the US national vote for trump compares to the 48/52 split we had with Brexit.scepticusnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39775937252130105362016-10-17T18:48:07.024+01:002016-10-17T18:48:07.024+01:00Michael Pettis wrote a fantastic piece back in Mar...Michael Pettis wrote a fantastic piece back in March about the "Jacksonian impulse" driving (a large portion of) Trump's supporters:<br /><br />http://blog.mpettis.com/2016/03/the-re-emergence-of-the-jacksonians/<br /><br />It is a bit of a long read, but well worth it:<br /><br />"But while they have nearly always been unlucky or foolish in who they end up choosing as their leaders, the Jacksonians have still managed to disrupt the political establishment in ways that proved pretty permanent, and they are doing so again. As absurd as Trump may be, he channels their sans-culottes hatred of the elite in ways that might actually strengthen democratic institutions."<br /><br />I have no personal experience of the UK or whether the mindset Pettis describes is present in the Brexit movement, and can certainly understand why others would prefer not to be compared to the movement around Trump. But perhaps the broader sense of outrage Pettis describes is more appropriate.<br /><br />And one hopes that Pettis' conclusion will ring true in both UK and US, "perhaps it is not just coincidence that any period in which there has been a significant downward redistribution of wealth seems to have been preceded by a period in which the Jacksonians have done well."hawkeyenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-35141582740613618102016-10-17T18:40:17.475+01:002016-10-17T18:40:17.475+01:00@Hotairmail: "Monetary policy has been more a...@Hotairmail: "Monetary policy has been more about picking winners and losers and trying to keep a lid on things rather than curing them."<br /><br />I think we have discussed this before elsewhere. Monetary policy and in particular, inflation targeting, has always been about picking winners and losers. Raising rates to create unemployment and restrain inflation (the central bank playbook of the latter half of the 20th century) picked marginal workers as losers and savers and non marginal workers as winners. To what extent policy to avoid deflation picks the same or different winners/losers is surely the key question and even more than that to what extent any kind of socially beneficial monetary (and fiscal) policy could in theory approach some kind of genuine neutrality.<br /><br />scepticusnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-5403942897803900412016-10-17T18:17:25.622+01:002016-10-17T18:17:25.622+01:00@ checkmate - I'm not trying to call Brexit an...@ checkmate - I'm not trying to call Brexit and Trump the same, but I feel they have similar sources. Feel free to disagree with me! Trump is only a figure-head of a larger problem of inequality in the US and the viewpoints associated with each side. I think at it's heart it's the same in the UK.<br /><br />As the author Chris Arnade (from above) says, "You can scrap this entire analysis as silly if you want, but please try and understand the core point missing from much of the current dialogue — large parts of the US have become completely isolated, socially and economically.<br />Kids are growing up in towns where by six, or seven, or eleven, they are doomed to be viewed as second class. They feel unvalued. They feel stuck. They are mocked. And there is nothing they feel they can do about it.When they turn to religion for worth, they are seen by the elites as uneducated, irrational, clowns. When they turn to identity through race they are racists. Regardless of their color. <br />The only thing they can do, faced with that, is break the fucking system. And they are going to try. Either by Trump or by some other way."<br /><br />Given the geographic distribution of Leave vs. Remain, is it not very similar?Marshall Junghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01494663748081037987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-1259602196259903452016-10-17T18:03:22.591+01:002016-10-17T18:03:22.591+01:00Meanwhile the fascists recently put in in charge o...Meanwhile the fascists recently put in in charge of the UK appear to be exerting themselves by targeting free speech once again, Assange and Russia Today being the organs targeted.Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-1587771639185628722016-10-17T17:13:54.831+01:002016-10-17T17:13:54.831+01:00I just see these democratic ructions and developme...I just see these democratic ructions and developments as merely the echo chamber to the financial crisis. In a not dissimilar way to the years following the Great Crash of 1929. We may not have chosen to have taken our medicine in exactly the same way as then (welfare state and extreme monetary policy settings), but if you think of the economy as a balloon - you push it one way and it appears in another no matter what. What we've chosen is for the majority of people to depress their wages and erode their cash savings, whilst for those growing up is not to be able to afford their own home or a decent pension - the two biggest purchases an individual typically makes in their lives. <br /><br />Monetary policy has been more about picking winners and losers and trying to keep a lid on things rather than curing them. Although having said that, the idea of curve steepening gives me real hope if we combine it with higher taxes/fiscal response and deleveraging in a similar way to post WW2. And we really will probably have to have tax levels that high for the very rich and better off. Which means taking the political controls away from the extremely rich. Interesting as it plays out over the decades - it will probably be easier to create a narrative in distant hindsight than living in the midst of it.Alhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14381013196081166483noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-56527931950641524702016-10-17T17:10:58.759+01:002016-10-17T17:10:58.759+01:00@checkmate - well said !@checkmate - well said !Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-5222069176899775352016-10-17T17:05:07.113+01:002016-10-17T17:05:07.113+01:00"People support Trump, Brexit etc. for very r..."People support Trump, Brexit etc. for very real and valid reasons, even if you don't agree with them."<br />As someone who voted for Brexit I cannot tell you how much I resent that issue and Trump being associated in the same sentence. Frankly, it once again suggests that those who voted to leave are some dumb simple minded schmucks who cannot differentiate between real issues/arguments and arseholes like Trump who think they just have to shout the loudest with the most abuse and somehow we will believe him if it sounds like what we want to hear. It's right up there with blaming banks as the sole raison d'etre for a global financial recession. As usual the issues are multi facted and complex ,but I guess it's easier for all sides to overlook that and attempt to dumb it all down to simplistic soundbite and stereotypes. I actually think my fellow man is actually a bit more intelligent than that notwithstanding there are those who are not.<br />checkmatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688082792316894545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-74629189085653989552016-10-17T16:37:22.755+01:002016-10-17T16:37:22.755+01:00I have been thinking about the political divisions...I have been thinking about the political divisions discussed of late (Brexit/Bremain, Trump/Clinton etc), and more importantly the chief cause of this division. It's become clear to me that the causes lie with central banks, and corrupt-capitalism. <br /><br />We would all like truly free markets, but central banks have destroyed any such idea, causing asset bubbles and massive mis-allocations of capital. This has resulted in job losses, lack of investment, market bubbles and catastrophic debt. <br /><br />Maybe it's time central bankers were put on trial for causing the problems that are starting to tear society apart?Jail central bankersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-59778248089703513612016-10-17T16:30:21.983+01:002016-10-17T16:30:21.983+01:00Here, here, washed @ 3:21. Reminds me of a favorit...Here, here, washed @ 3:21. Reminds me of a favorite PTJ quote: “Certain people have a greater proclivity for [macro trading] because they don’t have the need to feel intellectually superior to the crowd. It’s very hard to find a pure fundamentalist who’s also a very successful macro trader because it is so hard to have a hit rate north of 50 percent. The exceptions are in trading the very front end of interest rate curves or in specializing in just a few commodities or assets.”johnonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-89659110124254388062016-10-17T16:25:39.997+01:002016-10-17T16:25:39.997+01:00Can anyone please explain to me how Yellen's d...Can anyone please explain to me how Yellen's dovish commentary on Friday is bullish for the dollar? Also, Re LB, do you still see the Yen appreciating?WidowMakernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-10506355384989311232016-10-17T16:25:38.445+01:002016-10-17T16:25:38.445+01:00@ MM - I understand on the echo chambers comment f...@ MM - I understand on the echo chambers comment for sure. I have to work hard to make sure my daily research and opinion come from all sides.<br /><br />As a side note I was having a interesting conversation that blames the current vitriolic political atmosphere on big-tech. In tech's quest to perfect the most efficient advertising delivery platform they have unintentionally created a system whereby each person lives within their own bubble curated and provided by content delivery algorithms. It's advertising's evil offspring!Marshall Junghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01494663748081037987noreply@blogger.com