Show me the money

Although it remains the dog days of summer, yesterday was fairly interesting in its own way.   Not only did global equities have the temerity to go down, but the dollar also traded on the back foot for reasons that were not immediately obvious.  Throw in some comments from Dudley that look likely to be the first half of the Fed's next bait 'n' switch, and you had end-2017 Fed funds pricing at nearly its most extreme level since the Brexit vote.

It occurred to your author that he hadn't run his global equity scorecard in quite some time.  Given the shifts in relative market fundamentals and pricing over the last couple of quarters, an update seemed well overdue.   Thus, with a little help from friend-of-the-blog "Raving Irons", he refreshed the scorecard, the results of which can be seen below.  First, the developed market scorecard:



Well, well, isn't that interesting.   Just shy of two months after the Brexit vote, and UK equities top the table by a comfortable margin.  The US is middle of the pack, and two of the biggest losers in the demographic sweepstakes, Italy and Japan, bring up the rear.   The divergent opinion on UK and Japanese stocks is particularly interesting given the move in GBP/JPY this year.

Meanwhile, in EM space, Brazil has clearly escaped the cellar that it occupied for so much of last year:


Taiwan seems to be a perennial favourite of the scorecard; a perennial favourite of market narrative, India, is close to the bottom, meanwhile.

Macro Man thought it would be useful to examine one of the factors that goes into the scorecard, namely dividend yields.   One often hears that the primary attraction of owning the SPX and other equity markets these days is the yield on offer, which is greater than that of 10 year government bonds.  The table below displays equity market dividend yields in two ways: the raw dividend yield, and the difference between that yield and the local 5y swap rate.

The table is pretty interesting.   Curiously, the US stands out for having the lowest DM dividend yield, and the lowest in comparison to 5y swap rates.   Yet its market is one of the best performers this year, with the yield cited as a primary explanatory variable!  Of course, there are pitfalls from taking yields at face value, as the cases of Spain and Italy in particular illustrate.   It's a fine line between "value" and "value trap", particularly when the source of much of the yield on offer (the banking sector) is in such worrisome shape.  Much of the 4% yield on offer in the UK, meanwhile, comes from cash cow companies.  That the DAX hasn't done better this year given the carry premium to negative yield bonds says quite a bit about the state of asset allocation in the Eurozone these days.

The table of EM yields looks rather different:

Did you ever think you'd see the day when Turkish yields were lower than those in Germany, or Indonesian lower than Japanese?  Obviously, this refers to dividends rather than fixed income securities, but still....   The paucity of yield on offer in comparison to both DM yields and local currency fixed income markets goes quite a way, in Macro Man's view, to explaining the underperformance of EM vs developed markets in recent years.   Yes, EM has fared better recently, but that may well be short covering as much as anything.

In a world where Rod Tidwell is a successful asset allocator, it's hard to see EM performing well on a sustained basis unless they show him the money.
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checkmate
admin
August 17, 2016 at 7:59 AM ×

Historically, who ever bought EM equity looking for yield? Much more likely to buy EM for debt if it's yield you and diversification you were looking for. For EM Equities it was little different than buying domestic small companies. In other words you knew the risk was higher ,but so was the potential for growth and growth was what you were seeking albeit you nullified the higher risk via more modest portfolio allocation.
In conclusion, I 'm not really sure this study is very revealing when the rational for buying different markets wasn't ever the same to begin with. That is, yield based.

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checkmate
admin
August 17, 2016 at 9:44 AM ×

Another unload of position. HY short maturity this time. Arguably given the premium on offer from yield seekers and current UK inflation this now yields so little to maturity that any spread reversal or shock event would put it under water from it's current levels ..gone !

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Nico
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August 17, 2016 at 10:08 AM ×

central banks around the world are unloading UST at a record pace

with such strong dollar and strastopheric capital gains this could be the timing of all timing for taking your profit

central banks vs. (retail) people of the world. Guess who wins.

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checkmate
admin
August 17, 2016 at 10:20 AM ×

Nico,
The day this 'retail' cannot stay ahead of central bank group think is the day I'll put my board away forever.

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amplitudeinthehouse
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August 17, 2016 at 11:01 AM ×

Nico, win or lose in this bull market , it won't matter for today. As for today I immerse myself in a full body molecular rapture that would encapsulate all the winners I have ever backed and all the little victories along life's road that are the foundation within the human body's spiritual paradigm that lifts the body out of bed each day and motivates the mind towards the door to open you to the full frontal of a full day ahead of bullshit to encounter once again in your search for those little Pokemon chi tokens that are deposited into the spiritual bank when spontaneously you find yourself in a moment of bliss. Be it with friends, the racetrack, the pub or family. This timing you have mentioned will go down as THE GREATEST timing ever witnessed in history of the study of societal group behaviour.

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Anonymous
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August 17, 2016 at 11:42 AM ×

Thus spake Zarathustra.

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Polemic
admin
August 17, 2016 at 11:48 AM ×


the behaviour of everything turkish since the cop attempt has me going back to kindergarten to relearn the rules of the world.

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Anonymous
admin
August 17, 2016 at 1:38 PM ×

Nico: Is this the data you are referring to?
http://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/tressect.txt

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Nico
admin
August 17, 2016 at 2:30 PM ×

Amp's prose is epic today - he HAS to be the writer behind the great 'Stranger Things'

ANon, i was referring to an article by Bookvar - but yeah you have his source

here is some other food for thought:

http://dailyreckoning.com/day-dollar-died/

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amplitudeinthehouse
admin
August 17, 2016 at 2:46 PM ×

Nico, I can't help it. If I could I would, it's been there the whole time, and it's cost me plenty.

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MOOSB
admin
August 17, 2016 at 3:21 PM ×

Cisco to cut 14k jobs..

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washedup
admin
August 17, 2016 at 3:25 PM ×

@amp with ur verbal smoothie again? come down from ur tree of wisdom that noise is just CB woodpeckers - yellen is yelling and dudley is doodling and u have the temerity to bait and switch while standing naked in the forest of hedge fund follies yet no one can see its a forest because they are looking at the trees. You think Nico's ur friend LB is ur mate think again they are and much more just not the way u think.

Ur move

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Leftback
admin
August 17, 2016 at 3:42 PM ×

It must be the Dog Days of August when @washedup is doing a pastiche/homage of @amplitudeinthehouse.

Quite good, by the way! We always thought that @amps had been reading James Joyce while drinking absinthe and smoking opium in between watching the ponies. Always thought provoking....

The markets. Oh yes, those. We continue to observe them from the Hammock. Expiration week here, so all kinds of noddy trading going on this week as when volume is low the options tail simply wags the equity (+ esp. commodity) dog.

Today although the VIX is > 13 (ooo 13!!!) we have no doubt that the Fed minutes will prove to be asinine and we will see another little orgy of vol selling and spoos/crude futures buying in relief.

We will start to get busy tomorrow, looking to return to the themes we discussed here last week. This week (and most of August) has belonged to the vol sellers and squeeze artists. After Labor Day weekend, a cool breeze or two will blow through the Street and prompt a reappraisal of risk/reward ratios. September will be different.

Btw, MM and other fans of the Hammers, tough start. Better luck at home v Bournemouth and of course in the European adventure - unless there is an unexpected Brexit. You will love that Thursday-Sunday routine. NOT.

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checkmate
admin
August 17, 2016 at 3:51 PM ×

"Britain could be given 'special' status once it reaches a Brexit deal"
Otherwise interpreted to mean that if you are stupid enough to agree to my extortionate terms then you can call me your friend ! Really, do people still fall for this 6th grade schoolground style of doing business.

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Nico
admin
August 17, 2016 at 3:58 PM ×

where is Churchill's middle finger when we need it

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Anonymous
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August 17, 2016 at 4:09 PM ×

The crappy stocks are bought right now: EM equities, coal, traditional retailers... It is likely to have a correction coming when they run out of crappy stocks to buy.

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Anonymous
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August 17, 2016 at 4:23 PM ×

This guy finally resumed taking his meds this morning...

PaulKrugman says monetary policy is proving to be "pretty ineffective" http://bloom.bg/2bwi29l

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Anonymous
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August 17, 2016 at 4:27 PM ×

JacksonHole symposium title, "Designing Resilient Monetary Policy Frameworks for the Future"

Wow. Let's guess what they are really doing....

"Back to the Drawing Board, Designing New Policies that Might Actually Work"

I wonder what evil will be visited upon us in the coming months.

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Anonymous
admin
August 17, 2016 at 4:38 PM ×

It sounds to me that they will plan on helicopter money at JacksonHole. It is the only weapon left in CBs' armory.

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Nico
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August 17, 2016 at 4:53 PM ×

explain why they should resort to helicopter money when the markets are at all time high? honestly man... get a grip

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Leftback
admin
August 17, 2016 at 5:15 PM ×

Jackson Hole speech has been used traditionally to signal FOMC intentions. But it won't be about helicopter money, the line between monetary wizardry (FOMC) and fiscal policy (Congress) is sharply drawn in the U.S.

FOMC is now showing concerns about an over-heated Treasury market with a lot of "unnatural participants". Believe me, ZIRP, NIRP and helicopter drops are the last thing they (or their clients, the big banks and bulge bracket firms) want to see.

The Central Bank that cried wolf is in a bit of a bind here, as they have backed down so many times that everyone is now selling vol somewhat recklessly. Look for Dame Janet to wear her big boy pants when she makes the annual J-Hole speech.

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Anonymous
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August 17, 2016 at 5:15 PM ×

because they're stupid?

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Anonymous
admin
August 17, 2016 at 6:11 PM ×

The Fed doesn't care about the markets. They care about nGDP. Williams/SF Fed said as much. That's why you need heli $$$

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Anonymous
admin
August 17, 2016 at 7:32 PM ×

anon 4:38 here

I am not saying that they are going to drop helicopter money this year. But it is inevitable that they will reach that point: to kick off inflation or to buy off main street. It seems to me that they know that negative rates do not work and they are laying intellectual foundation for helicopter money gradually.

US might be the last one to adopt such practice, I see Japan could be the first to act in that direction.

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Anonymous
admin
August 17, 2016 at 8:03 PM ×

re fed minutes:

"wildfires in Canada."

good thing we have bots to read this stuff now. feed the bots!


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Bruce in Tennessee
admin
August 17, 2016 at 8:46 PM ×

Well, I see bad reports today from Target, Lowe's, Staples, and bad press today for WalMart. I will take the under on the next quarter GDP...

I can sit under my mushroom and grouse all I like. I still know how to electronically enter SDS when the time comes...the story of the King and his lack of clothing translates easily to today...but you'd have to put Dame Janet in the royal spot, and the mere idea of this would burn out your retinas...

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Mr. T
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August 17, 2016 at 8:47 PM ×

In broad terms I think the most likely CB action over the next 12-24 months is to do nothing. No behind-the-curve rate rises, no helicopter-money drops, just a general sitting-on-hands. It's not a stretch for the top-down investor, upon considering this most likely scenario, to determine that there is indeed relative value to be found in a variety of asset classes despite what the ratio's say. If investing was as simple as buying when the ratios were low and selling when they were high, we would all be rich.

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Nico
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August 17, 2016 at 8:48 PM ×

the Fed is so scared there would be a case for very big hedge funds to call them bluff and team up to whack the UST market short Soros/GBP (bygone) style - i wish i were one of them so i could retire thereafter. It's a colossal game of musical chairs here and those "unnatural participants" are going to get desfigured when the bond market crashes. I have the feeling that crash (timing of course uncertain) will be the worst thing ever recorded in history. That's what happens when bonds become a speculator market with incredible leverage/herding/complacency blindly following the CBs monetary dogma in the hope of a greater fool. It's (even) unhealthier than equities at this point, and a black swan like January 2015 SNB with a 40% move on the Swiss frank (come on!!!!) comes to mind. Amen

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Anonymous
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August 17, 2016 at 9:34 PM ×

One way street?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CqFizKgWgAAU6Sq.jpg

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Anonymous
admin
August 17, 2016 at 9:36 PM ×

Nico mate love your stuff but GFC the sequel ? Not healthy for the wallet to focus on the end of the world.

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Nico
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August 17, 2016 at 9:41 PM ×

i am not focusing on it per se - i'm just dead worried. I remember the fear in 2009, when people would buy farmland and guns etc and nothing has been in place to regulate markets so that we'd never go through such panic again

do you really think 'helicopter money' - as a last resource - would help contain the panic of a bond crash? sincerely i hope it never happens BUT financial markets are (one more time) immensely fragile as we speak

Abe has already failed, Draghi is fighting common sense.. and the Fed is cornered. This is where we stand.

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12yo HFM
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August 17, 2016 at 9:49 PM ×

I love Nico's comments, the guy is savage. However I disagree entirely because his views are the opposite of mine, so if he's right I'd lose money which is unthinkable yo?

The last 2 days saw a pullback in equities, where we BTFD (as outlined in my last post). FOMC showed once again that the Fed will do nothing re: rates, so equities will just grind higher. Bonds won't collapse for the simple reason that CBs own most of them, and will just buy more. And that's it folks. The only way you'll make money is to invest with 12yo HFM. Simples.

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MrBeach
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August 17, 2016 at 9:53 PM ×

@Nico:

I see no bond market crash at all when CBs are ready to QE at a moment's notice. Why would anyone sell bonds when CBs with unlimited buying ability stand ready to jump in at at any time?

I'm not saying 12yoHFM is right. But I'm not saying he is wrong either.

The SNB was dealing with a peg that had become harder and harder to sustain. Perhaps the PBoC has similar problems today. But Europe, UK, Japan, US - fuggetaboutit - with no capital controls, the markets are pricing and acting completely rationally.

Why would there be any panic at all in the bond market?

I'm personally having an okay year sitting long REITs & Munis and short equity markets.

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Nico
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August 17, 2016 at 9:57 PM ×

there you are, the dogma

"unlimited buying ability "

are you so sure? i have studied the modern monetary theory, it's all fancy and young and cool. like Hansel (Zoolander)

but it is only a THEORY

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MrBeach
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August 17, 2016 at 10:01 PM ×

@12yo:

Your position is more precarious than you think. The low volume melt up is likely built on massive short covering post Aug-15, Jan-16, and Brexit. Could it grind higher - sure. But one swift kick of uncertainty from out of left-field and you can take off 15% in a heartbeat.

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12yo HFM
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August 17, 2016 at 10:05 PM ×

@MrBeach: Appreciate your caution, but I must tell you that in all my 12 months of institutional experience I have never seen a 15% fall, and can't believe such phenomena actually exist :)

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MrBeach
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August 17, 2016 at 10:05 PM ×

@Nico:

There really is no magic to the mechanics of QE. The Fed authorizes an expansion of their balance sheet and starts buying in the open market. Knowing their bid is out is sufficient to change market behavior. 12yo is a canonical example.

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Leftback
admin
August 17, 2016 at 10:06 PM ×

Mr Beach,

Love your commentary in general, and I am long mREITs (although we have trimmed our longs). But the REIT universe in general looks a bit shaky here, with the mall REITs weakening and CRE already taking some hits. We actually have some IYR shorts to hedge the mREIT exposure. This is one of many sectors that might be especially vulnerable to the (largely symbolic and psychological) effect of a (minuscule and insignificant) 25 bp rate hike. This is all 100% psychology here - it is musical chairs investing now, there are too many leveraged players and not enough seats for everyone when the music stops.

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Nico
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August 17, 2016 at 10:11 PM ×

"Knowing their bid is out is sufficient to change market behavior"

oui oui

until they pile up so much leverage chasing so little yield that.. you know what, it would take only one (CLEVER) hedge fund to get out first

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Leftback
admin
August 17, 2016 at 10:14 PM ×

What makes this juncture in the markets especially interesting is the perception that there is only one possible Black Swan (the Fed), and since the Yellen Fed has actually proven to be La Paloma Blanca, then no such Black Swan in fact exists.

This is the basic assumption upon which vol sellers and dip buyers and 12yo HFM are currently operating. As Mr Beach points out, when known risks are priced in, an unexpected incursion from left field is frequently the catalyst for market instability.

12yo and others are behaving as though extrinsic economic shocks are as likely as giant asteroid impacts, but the historical record proves that we know this not to be the case.

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Nico
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August 17, 2016 at 10:18 PM ×

"Pound sterling was backed by gold issued by the Bank of England. It was the world money at the time. You could use a British gold sovereign, a one-ounce British gold coin, virtually anywhere in the world. And everything looked like it would maybe stay that way for the next hundred years.

Then in a very quick sequence of events from the end of June to the end of July, the Archduke of the Austro-Hungarian Empire was assassinated by a Serbian terrorist backed by Russia. That event set in motion the events that led to World War I and the ultimate decline of the British Empire."

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MrBeach
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August 17, 2016 at 10:27 PM ×

@Leftback:

IMHO, REITs are benefitting from the hunt for yield worldwide. It is likely there will more long term tenants instead of macro tourists. (With some preference for mREITs over mall and CRE.) If a 25bps hike frightens REIT some weaker holders, then I think more hardier buyers will step in. I don't see this trend changing until the Fed demonstrates a real backbone (unlikely for a while). So I'm happy buying REITs on the dip, collecting my monthly dividend for my troubles, and enjoying the capital appreciation.

On a different note, TWLO and ACIA are demonstrating late 1999 like dotcom bubble pricing. I'm watching this trend very carefully. If I see this spread to other stocks, then I'm going full 12yoHFM^3. So far since 2009, we haven't gone full-retard in equity markets. But seeing the gains in TWLO and ACIA and feeling left out could drive a lot of folks back into stocks.

The question is what is the best way to play full-retard and capture a lot of the blow-off top? I don't have the time to read the Yahoo discussion boards (or their equivalent) today. Perhaps the fever will be caught by some of the more focused ETFs this time around?

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Anonymous
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August 17, 2016 at 10:31 PM ×

Here is a very amateurish thinking on the negative yields and bond market:

I believe that we can all agree that traders bought FI assets with a negative yields are hoping to sell to someone willing to pay a higher price, as CBs are the last buyers. So far, negative yields exist only on short term FX assets.

Now when short term bonds are close to their maturity dates, the only one who do not mind losing money on this trade would be CB. Assuming all other private investors would get rid of their bonds with negative yields at some point of the life of the bond, unless CB could buy all the mature bonds in the market, someone is losing money on those bonds at the maturation. It leads to two possible outcomes: either CB eventually expands its bond-buying capacity and owns all the bonds to support negative yields, or bond yield goes back to positive.

It would be a long process to reach each outcome. The risk IMO is that the process will not be gradual and orderly.

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washedup
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August 17, 2016 at 10:32 PM ×

@12 Yo HFM LMAO on this one:

" I must tell you that in all my 12 months of institutional experience I have never seen a 15% fall, and can't believe such phenomena actually exist :)"

The wit is strong in this one.

Mr Beach re: treasuries I think the unifying concept here is speed and the nature of the long participant in the UST market, which to LB's point has changed materially in the last 12 months - when a spec bubble is big enough, you only need only a couple of bid-less days for prices to fall so much so fast that the portfolio effect takes over with algos piling on - as long as we are dealing with financial instruments and rules based trading there is always a scenario where CB's simply cannot move fast enough before the PnL effect begets further selling - of course that market is far too important for CBs to not even try to stem a slide eventually, but given lopsided enough positioning a LOT of damage can be inflicted before jawboning and press conferences - I swear I have never seen a market where bulls have greater confidence that they are right and prices are going to the moon with zero risk - not dot com circa 2000, not crude in summer 08, not even housing in 2006. Hell I even think its a one way street, and I'm the one penning this note.

This bubble in bonds is epic. Ignore this fact at your peril.

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Nico
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August 17, 2016 at 10:34 PM ×

CBs are the last buyers of 'their' respective bond vs. other CBs selling their position in that given govie - a.k.a 'Battle ROyale'

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MrBeach
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August 17, 2016 at 10:42 PM ×

@washed: Is it really a bond bubble when we've had massive CB participation in markets? When Yellen has been quoted as saying that policy will remain accommodative even after the Fed sees inflation return to the targets, when the Fed will back off on raising rates for every scary shadow they see. How can it be a bubble when we all get the same data, read the same press releases, read the same analysts and see the same trap. If the Fed or any other CB gets aggressive, they will near a instantaneous fall in bond markets, equity markets, property markets, etc. This is not the world we live in anymore. No central banker wants to be known as the idiot who causes a crash.

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Anonymous
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August 17, 2016 at 10:52 PM ×

Nico G interesting article about the dollar. Shortly put, it's just my view but I've for some time begun to view 99% of US foreign policy (and generally, what's going on in the world) relating to defending the dollar system and the associated trump cards related to global hegemony, including in Syria and the Middle East, Ukraine, China sea, the old Stans etc. It certainly makes the things going on and why they are going on a heck of a lot easier to understand. The media calls it protecting democracy, human rights etc. The dollar hegemony was born in the 1970s through the dollar-for-protection deals with the Middle East oil nations, which was a way to "restore" the dollar status after the necessary scrapping of the gold backed system. Everybody absolutely had to get dollars from uncle Sam to get what everyone needed, oil. The thing US is trying to prevent today is Eurasia from becoming united, developing land in between, settling people and generally booming in the vast fertile steppe lands, and the building of a new silk trade road from Asia to Europe, as it has the potential to make the US navy controlled waterways much more irrelevant. As does the potential arctic sea route between Russia and China, being shorter and safer excluding the permafrost still in place, but which is melting. The thing Russia and China are trying to do is precisely the opposite, getting Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Iran, Armenia and finally Syria into an economic/military alliance to counter balance the US led "west". Now Turkey seems to be swaying away, although this is a powder keg and very much unresolved. That's why its imo easily comparable to the British empire which also thrived on dominating the eastern trade routes with its navy and the riches from its colonies. So does the US today depend on controlling global trade routes and the goodwill of its "partner", and one thing it doesn't want are potentially very strong united competitors in Eurasia. I have a feeling empires will always tend go to extremes in defending their position which is why the general situation today is kind of worrying.

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Anonymous
admin
August 17, 2016 at 10:58 PM ×

classic summer action... all day putting your bids or offers out and nothing back, no response, it's dead out there. is anyone even manning the desks? then bam, the one market everyone cares about ties up and size is flying through, multiple counter-parties, it's a broker-tastic frenzy. i feel like that just happened with this comment thread...

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washedup
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August 17, 2016 at 11:12 PM ×

@Beach - re: How can it be a bubble when we all get the same data, read the same press releases, read the same analysts and see the same trap

you've answered your own question - wasn't that true for all the examples I cited also? the reason its a bubble is because absolutely no one would disagree with you, and yet there is is nothing in these facts that is novel or new, just that punters have completely embraced the idea, and far more importantly, already positioned for it. Someone mentioned the other day people are now buying bonds for capital gains to sell to someone down the line, and stocks for income (because of the former) - if you don't see that as abnormal I don't see what I could do to convince you.

Forget that, just focus on the fact that just a recent 2 years ago people had huge positions on betting on 10 yr rates to go from then 2.7% to 4% - now the same crowd is betting the opposite but now they are correct?

As for CB participation - their presence has zero impact other than to influence people like you and me to hold on to our length - if anything happens where we become forced sellers because for 10 seconds price went down they are irrelevant - its much more a house of cards than you seem to believe.

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Sigma
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August 17, 2016 at 11:14 PM ×

A bit challenging week. My risk exceeded the budget nearly twofolds as of yesterday, but, thanks to Yellen, it reverted to the mean, as it always does. Have been there before - nothing new... Risks does pay off well. Thanks to Yellen and Co, again.

The old days of Boy Plungers glued to the tape and looking for a thrill are over, especially, so in the FI world. All HFs are cutting off discretionary traders and, instead, relying on quants... Carry, vol selling, risk-parity, smart-beta, minimum vol, Black-Scholes, Markowitz...

I know it is dead boring, but look at me - I have got no adrenalin and no addiction to the screen. On the positive side: I have got late mornings, after lunch siestas, and, most importantly, early dozes of scotch, oysters, and cigars. All these while making double digit returns...

P.S. Fingers crossed for the momentum in FI and defensives to continue into European session tomorrow. I urgently do need spare cash to win in that auction for Picasso for my collection of the fine art. You know that it is impossible to get a cheap deal in the market where everyone wants to buy...

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Nico
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August 17, 2016 at 11:48 PM ×

anon 10:52

remarkable and 100% agree

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Leftback
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August 18, 2016 at 1:39 AM ×

Sigma said: "On the positive side: I have got late mornings, after lunch siestas, and, most importantly, early dozes of scotch, oysters, and cigars. All these while making double digit returns…"

You do make it sound appealing, but are vol sellers just destined to be this year's Lazy Sunbathers?

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Nico
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August 18, 2016 at 6:57 AM ×

this is highly fictional

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