Musings on the flatness of the ED curve

Yesterday Macro Man posted a couple of charts illustrating just how flat the Eurodollar curve is.  Both the front end and belly of the money market curve have flattened dramatically this year.  Should we be concerned?   Should the Fed?

In the good old days, the shape of the curve was a useful indicator and predictor of both actual and "ideal" Fed policy.   The chart below plots the 5th vs 13th Ed contracts versus both the Fed funds target rate and the rate prescribed by an inertial Taylor rule.  Although the levels do not align perfectly (nor should they, given the disparity in the level of the funds rate over the decades), the trajectory of the ED curve has done a very good job of anticipating or at worst matching shifts in actual and prescribed Fed policy.


The crisis, however, introduced a new set of monetary policy factors into the mix: QE, forward guidance, and the binding constraint of the zero lower bound.  (Which is why your author included a Taylor rule indicator to the chart- to remove that constraint.)  Unsurprisingly, the relationship doesn't look quite as cosy, but the two series have been surprisingly correlated.

To a large degree, this is an accident.   The ED curve flattened even as the Taylor rule prescription moved higher in 2011-2012 not because of an expected policy tightening (the usual implication of a move higher in the Taylor rule), but because the Fed's forward guidance explicitly crushed virtually all expectations of any tightening at all.  Thus, when Bernanke unleashed the Taper Tantrum in may 2013, the curve began to price potential policy action, re-steepening for 18 months or so even as the Taylor rule marched merrily higher, eventually trickling back into positive territory.

It was natural for a curve like the 5/13 to begin flattening at that point because of the expectation that there would be significant policy action already in the bag by the time the 5th contract rolled around.  Of course, in the ensuing period waiting for that policy action has been akin to waiting for Godot.  As a result, the curve has continued to flatten, not because of higher yields in the front leg but because of lower yields in the back leg.

To a degree, this may be rational given the debate over the decline in the long-run equilibrium funds rate.  Nevertheless, it is still problematic.  The market is pricing a little over over one rate move between now and the end of next year and just one rate move between December of next year and December of 2020.  This is very considerably less than that forecast by the blasted dot plots.  More worryingly, the curve has behaved in a manner that generally characterizes an end-of-cycle environment rather than one that is stuttering to start.

The gap between what the Fed has said on a forward looking basis and what it has actually delivered has grown so wide that the market has apparently washed its hands of the whole thing.  At this point one can very reasonably question what it is that the Fed is actually trying to accomplish with its monetary policy.  It's clearly not trying to normalize for the sake of normalization, for such a goal would not require such a pusillanimous approach.  Equally, it seems difficult to credit that the Fed is trying to maintain a steady level of accommodation; the collective progress towards its dual mandate over the past several years would appear to have warranted more than a solitary rate rise, as indeed the Fed itself has anticipated over the course of the SEP dot plots over the years.

This basic question, more than any other one, is what Yellen should tackle in her speech on Friday:  what are you trying to do?
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checkmate
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August 24, 2016 at 7:56 AM ×

Thanks for that. It certainly correlates very well with the action I have been observing in the bond markets in which I participate here in the UK. Calculating the YTM on bonds recently was a worrisome exercise. The future expectation as you now point out appears so different from what even the CB's are projecting that even a couple of small 25bps rises promises to cause some dislocation from what in my mind looks to be outright misallocation brought on by excess liquidity. This looks to me to be more of an issue than equities although the relative spreads between the groups is always going to be an issue if the dislocation is large enough. I know my view is meaningless to policy makers ,but if this is not the time for them to move the bond market away from the trough then I do not know when the time would be better.

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Nico G
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August 24, 2016 at 7:59 AM × This comment has been removed by the author.
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Nico G
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August 24, 2016 at 8:07 AM ×

https://web.facebook.com/federalreservesystem/?hc_ref=SEARCH&fref=nf

looooooooooool

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Anonymous
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August 24, 2016 at 9:57 AM ×

Equities are being bought hand over fist today. Jackson Hole info has already been leaked to the smart money.

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Anonymous
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August 24, 2016 at 10:10 AM ×

Yes, Euro Stoxx50 goes from -0.5% to +0.5% led by banking sector. Dax from-0.5% to +0.25%. FTSE at -0.25%. S&P flat.

You remind me of Harry Enfield's Loadsamoney character: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ON-7v4qnHP8

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helicongrowth
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August 24, 2016 at 10:26 AM ×

The ED curve is flattened by the UST curve, which is flattened by the ECB, BoE, BoJ buying their debt down to silly yield levels. So foreigners have been buying USTs all the way which is why we had a big USD bull run. However now after ccy hedging there is zero yield pick up from USTs......

Add to this the mkt is losing faith in the Fed ever following through on their words and the mkt is stuck. We went form 2.5 hikes priced in Jan backed up by Fisher then Yellen whacks the hawks over the back of the head in March due to global $$ concerns and then the Jun July debacle......The Fed are stuck between the size of their balance sheet and a strong $ - hence all the flip flopping.....

So stocks melt up, vol and carry are the order of the day, reminds me a lot of 2004-06

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8YTyJzmiHGk

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Nico G
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August 24, 2016 at 11:09 AM ×

to the trend followers out there - where is your stop sell level on UST ? where do the musical chairs get triggered

French banks have sold into the bond rally this year which gave a nice hand job to their quarter results

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washedup
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August 24, 2016 at 11:38 AM ×

@MM "This basic question, more than any other one, is what Yellen should tackle in her speech on Friday: what are you trying to do?"

How would she tackle that question, when the answer involves admitting that they were wrong? These guys aren't traders for whom self examination, while existentially critical, is hard enough - these are academics who take pride in the durability of their ideas because of the years of research and thinking that have supposedly gone into formulating them, not to mention been supposedly borne out by (cherry picked) empirical experiences in the 'real world'.

Most likely they will settle on the least self - flagellating narrative imaginable, namely that they did everything right but the real world was especially conspiratorial in creating one off factors that stymied them (dollar, china etc etc), and then sneakily increase pressure on politicians to move the burden to fiscal policy by creating new buzzwords like 'productivity stimulus' while trying to make a quiet exit stage left.

Ironic that in the end, whether one is an Ivy league PhD in economics or Andy Dufrane's prison-mate in the Shawshank Redemption, the answer to the question 'why are u here' is always the same - 'lord f@3ed me'. Color me cynical, but I expect the fed to go 100% wag the dog - and no, I still don't think they will hike.

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Anonymous
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August 24, 2016 at 11:47 AM ×

I'd say Yellen's answer to your basic question, MM, might well be (for now) "I'm trying to help people not elect Trump, do you mind?" :)

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Rossco
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August 24, 2016 at 11:48 AM ×

Yellen cannot risk policy divergence between the Fed and the ECB, BoE and BoJ. It will give the green light to everyone to go piling into dollars.

What is slightly surprising is how seemingly relaxed she is at seeing the Fed's credibility shot to shit.

The Japanese liquidity trap has gone global

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Rossco
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August 24, 2016 at 11:49 AM × This comment has been removed by the author.
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Anonymous
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August 24, 2016 at 12:18 PM ×

I'm expecting nothing from Jackson Hole. here's why:

Raising rates could crash the bond market since traders are currently buying 30 year bonds with almost no yield after a 35 year bull market. Raising rates will probably kill the equity bull market. It could potentially instigate another 2008 style crisis if the music stops and everyone has to find a chair in a hurry. The longer we go on without raising the more certain this end becomes, if rates were raised in 2010 we would have had a recession and be well out of it by now. If they wait until 2018 to raise rates there is a real probability of global panic meltdown.

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Bruce in Tennessee
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August 24, 2016 at 1:10 PM ×

Why couldn't there be a global equities meltdown in 2016? The problem is that markets have become addicted to ZIRP, and why shouldn't they be? Housing bubbles, stock buybacks by many companies, lack of wage growth, man oh man the list just goes on forever and is global.

But the alternative is ZIRP eternal...it will be messy 2016 or2018...this is what you get when you put in place a bad idea and then think that if I just quit leading and lay low things might get better...they don't.

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Anonymous
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August 24, 2016 at 1:21 PM ×

I am still puzzling over the parade of famous investors/traders warning about the frothiness in equities. Some of them claim they are short. Why bother to tell the sheeple? Are they hoping to roll over markets via talk?

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amplitudeinthehouse
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August 24, 2016 at 1:29 PM ×

Ahh, forget the mess financial "QE" has left the Federal Reserve chairwoman in. The market cycle since the London Olympic games has come full circle if anyone hasn't noticed! Back then we were at the bottom of the EU crisis before it launched its own QE program and now we have the Brazil Olympic games over and done with we're looking at how the central bankers are going to reenact the thunderbirds as they try and lift off the ZIRP launch platform one by one without sending signals to the market that their actions may affect another country's ZIRP program. Yeah, goodluck with that. Back to the games, and we're retiring from in front of the Olympics game screen, happy to sit on unrealised gains from here on. Chow!

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Nico G
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August 24, 2016 at 1:33 PM ×

i should stop drinking now - if i stop drinking in 2018 there will be a liver melt down

in February 2000 i was in Bora Bora and that French truck driver told me all about his Citrix stocks and IPOs to come etc. In a $1500 a night resort. Since the yield curve was already inverting i took that trucker's $18 beer as the last warning and sold everything. Thank you whoever you are.

this bond bubble will look so obvious in hindsight. But you should not wait for dentists to buy negative yielding bunds, it will be impossible for smart money to stuff retail this time. The absurdity is already too big to ignore.

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Leftback
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August 24, 2016 at 2:36 PM ×

Some thoughts on vol:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/4000582-vix-forward-curve-giving-clues-overbought-equity-market?source=marketwatch

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washedup
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August 24, 2016 at 2:59 PM ×

@Left - I disagree with the idea in the article that the shape of the vix curve is a useful signal anymore - the reason for the contango in VIX is the proliferation of retail long instruments which now need to be rolled forward every maturity, and the market then front runs. If vol rallies in the future (although these days I feel it will never happen again in our lifetimes) people may be disappointed by how little the the shape is impacted. We saw this play out in crude oil numerous times in the 2004-2007 bull phase when joe schmoes were piling into GSCI.

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Anonymous
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August 24, 2016 at 3:07 PM ×

Vix doesn't matter, Libor doesn't matter, bond yields don't matter.

Everything is A OK.

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Anonymous
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August 24, 2016 at 3:44 PM ×

@nico,

Just curious, after those French banks sold their bonds in q2, what did they do with the money? I cannot see a good use of their capital.

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Leftback
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August 24, 2016 at 3:47 PM ×

@washed: The interesting thing about those retail long vol instruments at present is how many punters are shorting them and how many punters are long the XIV (designed to be an inverse VIX ETF). Reflexivity works both ways. The XIV lost half of its value in the August 2015 and January 2016 downturns, which were themselves fairly unexceptional market corrections. Just pointing it out. Someone out there is going to have a very bad day, if and when mean reversion ever revisits the market.

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Leftback
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August 24, 2016 at 3:49 PM ×

"after those French banks sold their bonds in q2, what did they do with the money?"

Looking at what happened since, it's likely they piled into European energy / emerging markets / commodities plays.

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Celeriac1972
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August 24, 2016 at 3:54 PM ×

@Nico - somewhere around that time I was in an airport lounge in Houston half-heartedly watching CNBC as Oracle announced a stock split. A cleaner shook his mop triumphantly above his head with both hands as the stock leapt on the news. I remember my colleague looking at him, then at me and saying "You know, we really should learn something from this."

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checkmate
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August 24, 2016 at 4:06 PM ×

Yes, the stories are right up there with non property pros telling me why property couldn't go down and why it could keep going up at 10%pa even though on questioning these same people admitted their earnings at the time hardly ever increased by more than 3 to 4%pa. That was summer of 2004 and prompted me selling out in 2005 and 06 tax years. Bottomline is greed makes idiots out of many people. Must create some kind of neural blind spot.

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wcw
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August 24, 2016 at 4:18 PM ×

As someone with scars from both the first tech bubble and the housing bubble, I find these anecdotes amusing. Everyone's a genius in the rearview mirror. No genius myself, I remember well how painful it was to be even the slightest bit early for either turn. Ouch.

So, if there is a bond bubble, who here has scars already, and why now and not in a few years?

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Nico G
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August 24, 2016 at 4:29 PM ×

wcw it is not about shorting bonds yet - it is about NOT buying them and/or selling your bond holdings if you've been lucky to ride the gravy train. ECB rate was 4% in 2008 and 0% today, when everyone is trying to tell you that all is fine and negative rates are here to stay it becomes a dangerous fairy tale. Many banks are resisting charging their customers negative rates on their deposits (EUR, CHF) because it is commercially awful to do so. But they will lose more and more money if they don't. SOme folks with common sense still think negative rates are temporaty and normalisation is warranted. Throughout the blogosphere it is starting to sound like a party of very spoilt brats expecting bonds to still go up and up. From here?? come on

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Leftback
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August 24, 2016 at 4:40 PM ×

Commodities are quietly being taken out behind the woodshed today and beaten with the ugly stick. Gold, silver, oil. Some of these big punters who are selling represent a more well-informed group of investors. Can we learn from this price action?

Large moves in markets are sometimes mind-numbingly obvious in retrospect, had we been paying attention to interesting market signals. LB likes to look around for little puffs of smoke above the trees, that might be early indications of a forest fire.

Gold, GDX and the IYR are all trading weakly and have all broken through the 50 dma decisively today. Silver did the same a few days ago. You can stick a fork in them, they are done. We expect crude oil to follow this pattern in short order, followed by the associated FX pairs (CADUSD, NOKUSD, RUBUSD etc..). Reflatus interruptus, my friends, the great Dash For Trash rally of 2016 is coming to a close - it's time to give Bucky a great big hug.

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washedup
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August 24, 2016 at 4:46 PM ×

@wcw I hear you - good timing anecdotes are two a penny and tell us nothing in the here and now - that said, I have a useful checklist to identify whether we at least are in the middle of a bubble, because sometimes people even fail at that first step:

1. Did the start of the rally have very sound structural underpinnings, and has slowly morphed into a stampede?
2. Is wall street research telling you things are a bit overvalued fundamentally while telling you in hushed tones in the after-dinner how they don't see the party ending because of 'flows'?
3. Has a new metric been invented to justify current and future valuation increases?
4. Have people, after having gorged on the asset class in question. moved on and started feasting on related asset classes that are totally separate markets with their own dynamics, but benefit, however mildly, from a continuing rally in the original?
5. Are people confusing the trade's crowdedness and consensus nature with confirmation, leading to an illusion of safety?
6. Are smart people realizing they are in the bubble coming up with excuses (oh it won't end without a blow off top and that'll be my signal to get out) to stay in it?

I would humbly submit that treasuries currently check off all these boxes - I would further submit US equities, especially utilities as exhibit A for 4., but perhaps not a bubble in its own right.

And just remember, I have no clue on timing, just know when I'm in 1.

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checkmate
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August 24, 2016 at 6:20 PM ×

"Everyone's a genius in the rearview mirror." Talk about missing the point. Typically, it's foresight not hindsight and it isn't the stories themselves so much has the confirmation they add to what you already know by virtue of some fundamental analysis. After all that it's actually only a case of getting out of your own way. Neither is this supposed to be a tale of exquisite timing. In terms of the property market I was actually 12 to 18 months in front of any perceptible problems ,but there again the less liquid the market the more time you'd better give yourself to do the business. From my point of view it's always about value or a lack of. In the latter case I'm always gone and I don't care if people want to hang in there for another year or several years. It's immaterial to the decision.

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Panda
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August 24, 2016 at 6:48 PM ×

@LB: Trying to understand the short thesis on IYR. Is it a bet on interest rates going up and hence yield names to go down, along with the bubbly levels of REIT on questionable US economic strength?

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MrBeach
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August 24, 2016 at 7:00 PM ×

@checkmate:

"I know my view is meaningless to policy makers ,but if this is not the time for them to move the bond market away from the trough then I do not know when the time would be better."

Do you have children? Because your advice is the advice of a good, thoughtful parent confronting a selectively-deaf child. After enough warnings, you have to put real consequences on the table. In our family, it is the removal of screen time. Suddenly, rooms get picked up, dinners get finished and teeth are brushed.

There is also another class of children and parents. These parents also verbalize consequences for improper behavior. The children, though, instead of returning to the correct path, throw a massive tantrum. Nervous, sleep deprived, busy, etc. parents respond by backing off the consequences. Some even reward tantrums with QE.

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August 24, 2016 at 7:57 PM ×

@Nico - we're fat and happy with the TNX all the way up to 2%; if we get to 2.5% and take out the 2015 high, then we'll have another look - even then only for tactical positioning. Soundly in the deflation camp, waiting for someone to convince us we aren't all going to follow Japan down the hole.

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August 24, 2016 at 8:10 PM ×

BTW, I was just leaving university when Volcker was casting the moneychangers out of the temple. JBTFD in bonds has worked beautifully through my entire investing career, but it took me to long to grasp it. The punishment was taking two ridiculous drawdowns. Lesson learned.

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Anonymous
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August 24, 2016 at 8:31 PM ×

$VIX moving up big this afternoon, currently +9.94%. Last: 13.61

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wcw
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August 24, 2016 at 8:39 PM ×

Thanks for the thoughtful responses, folks, appreciated.

Nico, can't say it makes sense to me to be long Bunds at 0, but someone must be.

LB, what's the obvious message of weak commodities and RE?

washedup, makes sense, but there I get gunshy. Bonds looked expensive last year, too.

checkmate, nothing personal, just practical. Our host might remember the arguments we had back when on homebuilders; his question then was, fine, sell, but when do you buy?

Zorba, isn't a TN move to 2.5% only a 10% cut in the bond? Maybe my math is wrong.

Not to be all short-termy, but ES is as noted suddenly down sharply, while TN is flat.

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Leftback
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August 24, 2016 at 9:00 PM ×

It's interesting how many punters and commenters seem to think that Icahn, Gundlach, Paul Tudor Jones, Soros etc are all Complete Tools and Dinosaurs and that the new Masters of the Universe are 12yoHFM and his vol selling ilk who are Backed By Janet and therefore Cannot Lose Money, because they Simply Know Better. We find the loud high-pitched squawkiness, moral certitude and overwhelming unanimity of such voices to be extremely interesting at this time.

In the interests of full disclosure, we are short the following, fwiw, in varying size and with varying degrees of conviction:

First, and with most certainty, what we view as the canaries in the coal mine (take a look at KOL for that matter):

USO. Fundamentals, seasonals weak. Technicals mixed. RSI has turned down. Target $40 or lower.
GDX. RSI has turned down, 50 dma violated. Gaps at 26 and 23. Target $22.
SLV. RSI has turned down, 50 dma violated. Gaps at 17, 16.5 and 15.5. Target $15.5
IYR. RSI has turned down, 50 dma violated. Gaps at 81 and 79. Target $78.

Next, with moderate certainty, we are looking at three currency pairs that seem ripe for the picking:

CADUSD. RSI has turned down. Target 0.7450
EURUSD. RSI has turned down. Target 1.0800
AUDUSD. RSI has turned down. Target 0.7400

One more waiting in the wings:

GBPUSD. Target 1.2800

Finally, with less certainty (because CBs Will Never Allow Them to Go Down) the main event:

IWM. Gaps at 119, 117, 115, 111 Target 108.
QQQ. Gaps at 116, 110, 109, 105 Target 102.
TLT. Gaps at 139, 137, 135 Target 132.

We are also long UUP (Target 25.50), and long vol (the latter for amusement and to violate 12yoHFM's world view).

Gaps get filled. Mean reversion always occurs, no matter how long the wait.

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Nico G
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August 24, 2016 at 9:08 PM ×

and i am short 150 spoos at 2162 average

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Anonymous
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August 24, 2016 at 9:52 PM ×

Bund at 0% makea sense if you are either worried about having a large some on deposit (bail in) or you think eurozone/euro is gonna bust (Dmark). FBD insurance in Ireland moving out of bank deposits due to low rates and bail in risks. The thing about bailin rules is they can change them anytime they want.

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Anonymous
admin
August 24, 2016 at 10:06 PM ×

Yeah, and one more case for Mr. Bund - "Cyprus is NOT a template".

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Anonymous
admin
August 24, 2016 at 10:22 PM ×

http://m.independent.ie/business/irish/bailin-fears-spur-fbds-150m-move-to-bonds-34965247.html

" Insurer FBD switched over €150m of its investments to corporate bonds over the past year because of the low returns offered by banks and the fear that new bail-in rules could see it lose its money......"

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johno
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August 24, 2016 at 10:37 PM ×

"More worryingly, the [ED5/ED13] curve has behaved in a manner that generally characterizes an end-of-cycle environment rather than one that is stuttering to start." Nice observation, MM. And thank you again for your daily posts.

The curve out to ED5 just looks too flat, given where UE is and how far Fed Funds is below the illusory "r-star" (plus inflation). Play via eurodollars or the USD? USD is cheap to rates, but is more muddied by BoJ and ECB considerations.

Like Nico's analysis of bunds, restated today. A negative rate instrument is a greater fool trade, and greater fool trades are susceptible to crashes. What's the catalyst though? Core inflation still quiescent in the EZ ...

I'm no pro when it comes to equities, but some saying Chinese PPI deflation will end later this year (forecasts on Bloomberg still at -0.8% for '17, but off -2.5% low). Chinese H shares are cheap. Didn't Russell Napier write a whole book about that being the time to buy an equity market? I bought some FXI calls today. What the heck.

Do this blog's shrewd AUDNZD traders have a view on the cross here? The "mean reversion monkey" in me is tempted to get long.

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Anonymous
admin
August 24, 2016 at 11:02 PM ×

$MBB back up at $110 ...... just a few pennies from new alltime highs

its the ETF that represents outstanding universe of GSE mbs

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Leftback
admin
August 24, 2016 at 11:09 PM ×

A few of the themes we discussed this week get an eloquent airing here, notably pension funds selling puts and vol of vol.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/4001700-news-tina-land?source=marketwatch

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Anonymous
admin
August 25, 2016 at 12:22 AM ×

Read Dbanks Cryan via Handleslatt, via Zhedge.

At the end of the day, current monetary policy is bonkers and about to suffer the adverse affects.

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Special FX
admin
August 25, 2016 at 7:16 AM ×

I made a few good fx calls as an anon recently : dollar weakness in august, EU at 1.1250 and then 1.1350, long NZDUSD at 0.71 in particular. I'll use that alias from now on.

This end of august is a little murky and things should get clearer in the coming weeks but still here are my thoughts :

EU could made another push higher from 1,12/11 area before really turning lower
GU seems to be making the same post brexit pattern than EU, if result should be the same that would be 1.36.
AU and NU almost reached the areas I had in mind, flat for now but still inclined to buy it on pullback or short from higher levels. 75/7550 first area of interest on AU.

@johno, watching AUDNZD closely around here, as it could be up for a remake of the november/february bottoming process.

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NoE
admin
August 25, 2016 at 7:27 AM ×

@Checkmate - Bottomline is greed makes idiots out of many people. Must create some kind of neural blind spot.
Good read here:
https://www.amazon.com/Hour-Between-Dog-Wolf-Transforms/dp/0143123408
Testosterone is the neural blind spot.

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checkmate
admin
August 25, 2016 at 8:30 AM ×

"checkmate, nothing personal, just practical. Our host might remember the arguments we had back when on homebuilders; his question then was, fine, sell, but when do you buy?"
In answer to your question the majority of my cyclic (multi year hold) buying is what I call distress opportunities which are usually to be found post capitulation when selling is for the most part on the way to being exhausted and valuations are book value cheap NOT simply cheap on a recency basis.
Put away any ideas of timing a bottom per se . Be prepared to be on the wrong side of sentiment for awhile. Do not be afraid of being a bit early. Buy because fundamental analysis tells you the market is once again completely and utterly wrong as to where the value is. The biggest issue here is discipline because opportunities iike this don't tend to sit up and present themselves that often.

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funloanfirm
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August 27, 2016 at 5:15 PM ×


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