Would you lend money to this man?

Would you lend money to this man?  For 50 years?  At a rate below 2%?  Macro Man wouldn't, but on yesterday's evidence there are plenty of people who would (and did).  France sold 3 billion 50 year OATs at 1.91% (and a further 6 billion 30 years at the princely yield of 1.31%.)

To put that in perspective, the average level of French CPI over the last 50 years was 4.4%.   Now maybe you could argue that much of that occurred when the FRF was free floating (and inflationary); since the advent of the euro, French CPI has averaged 1.44%.  Should that performance be repeated over the next three to five decades, those 30 and 50 year bonds confer real interest rates of -0.13% and 0.47%, respectively.  Colour Macro Man distinctly unenthused.

Although there is no time series for French 50y yields that Macro Man is aware of, there is one for 30y's....and unsurprisingly current levels are near all time lows in both nominal and real terms.
Moreover, 30 year yields are comfortably below nominal GDP, which is an historical anomaly.  Stop me if you've hear that one before....


Finally, much like elsewhere, equities offer a substantially higher yield than long rates; the dividend yield of the CAC is 200 bps higher than what you get from lending to M. Hollande for the next 30 years.   True, in many ways European equities are as attractive as a pile of dog vomit in the middle of an antique Persian rug, and it's a short trip from "value" to "value trap."   One is left to wonder, however, how big the yield gap needs to be to draw in buyers.

It's important to remember, of course, that it's difficult (and generally unprofitable) to look at an asset price in a vacuum and say "that's wrong" and go the other way.   It seems reasonable to posit that the buyers of French '66's at sub 2% think the price is just as crazy as your author does....but if every other bond price is just as crazy, then there's an argument that you just pick the one with the highest yield where you're pretty sure you'll get your money back.

As many readers likely heard, the average yield on the entire spectrum of German government bonds reached zero on Monday before retreating slightly to 5 bps yesterday.  Perhaps it's a coincidence that Wolfgang Schaeuble launched a blistering attack on the ECB over the weekend...but probably not.  (Incidentally, is there much in the way of crowd-funding platforms in the Eurozone these days?   That could be a way of dis-intermediating crippled banks and financial repressimos and getting access to capital and yield to those who need them.)


Taking a step back, there is an ironic aspect to all of this.  Central banks across the developed world are keen to generate inflation (usually defined as a 2% annual rise in some usually-arbitrary index), largely because of the enormous stock of debt that the world has accumulated over the past few decades.  The solution to the problem has been....to dramatically increase the value of the very liabilities that are such a problem in the first place.  Macro Man cannot help but think that economic historians will shake their heads in future centuries when they read about this whole sordid situation.

Meanwhile, central banks can content themselves with the knowledge that they've laid the foundation for the next crisis.  By mispricing the cost of capital, for example, the Fed has encouraged a debt 'n' buyback binge that has left corporate America with the sort of cash flow issues that one normally associates with Greece, as the chart from SocGen below illustrates.

While the end needn't come imminently, by the same token it isn't necessarily far away, either.  Either way, when it comes, M. Hollande won't be the only chap you'll not want to lend money to.


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2and20
admin
April 13, 2016 at 7:30 AM ×

50y OAT at 1.91% almost sounds sensible compared to what's going on in corporate land...Sanofi doing a 3y with a zero coupon, BMW doing a 4y with 0.125% coupon.

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2and20
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April 13, 2016 at 7:30 AM ×

50y OAT at 1.91% almost sounds sensible compared to what's going on in corporate land...Sanofi doing a 3y with a zero coupon, BMW doing a 4y with 0.125% coupon.

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CV
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April 13, 2016 at 7:43 AM ×

Yes, yes, yes MM. I agree with everything here. That chart of U.S. cash flow v buyback/divid is staggering. The usual "defensive" and "bellwether" sectors in the U.S. are dancing on thin ice here I think.

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Nico G
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April 13, 2016 at 8:06 AM ×

Aggressive central bank monetary policies have created artificial demand for corporate debt which we think companies are exploiting by issuing debt they do not actually need. The proceeds of this debt raising are then largely reinvested back into the equity market via M&A or share buybacks in an attempt to boost share prices in the absence of actual demand. The effect on US non-financial balance sheets is now starting to look devastating. We’re not the only ones to be worried. The Office of Financial Research (OFR), a body whose function is to assess financial stability for the US Treasury, highlights corporate debt issuance as their primary threat to financial stability going forward.

SocGen's Andrew Lapthorne

yesterday at Christies London i saw the the poorest quality Picasso and the ugliest Renoir on record both estimated around $16m for upcoming sales.

there has NEVER been a better time to sell your shit.

Sell your art sell your wine sell your condo in Vancouver buy a basket of 30 currencies and wait ten years.

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Anonymous
admin
April 13, 2016 at 8:08 AM ×

Well Nikkei and EU equities up strongly since yesterday. Looks like the anons yesterday were right with their calls.

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Anonymous
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April 13, 2016 at 8:42 AM ×

As is a broken clock twice a day

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Anonymous
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April 13, 2016 at 8:50 AM × This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
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Anonymous
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April 13, 2016 at 9:02 AM ×

Nico - I agree with your thesis of Europe being an economic (and social) mess. However, your (and Macromans) SPX trade is underwater, and your previously winning Eurostoxx trade has reversed back to your entry zone. As we speak US, EZ and JP equities are surging higher. Do you not think you are undergoing a permabear bias? I'm not trying to be rude, just point out that the market price action disagrees with your thesis. So either you are wrong or the market is wrong. Interested in your views.

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Anonymous
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April 13, 2016 at 9:04 AM ×

Re buy-backs, let me repost what I linked in a previous comment
http://blog.gavekalcapital.com/?p=10739

I can't really comment on the gap between what Edwards used and the above, whether it's really the difference between cash spent on buy-back and overall cash expenses or something more subtle.

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Anonymous
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April 13, 2016 at 9:06 AM ×

Im not sure i saw the Anons of yesterday mention Opex apart from the lad who was covering long term short in advance of the move.

Selling late Friday or Monday morning after Opex, Doha & IMF gathering looks ideal.

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Anonymous
admin
April 13, 2016 at 9:16 AM ×

The state of French p2p sme lending.....Lendix, one of the 60 companies who joined the fray of crowdlending platforms in 2015 has quickly taken the leadership position by designing a marketplace that meets the needs of institutional investors.

Marketplace lending to small and medium size enterprise (SMEs) is taking off in France. Hardly a year after the French crowdfunding regulation came into force, more than 60 companies are officially registered as crowdlending platforms (Interm√©diaire en financement France Arc du Triomphe Parisparticipatif, IFP). According to the statistics compiled by crowdlending.fr, the 10 leaders who represent more than 90% of the market lent €31.5 million euros to SMEs in 2015.

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Nico G
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April 13, 2016 at 9:42 AM ×

anon 9:02

you poor fuck

i am trying to be rude.

you have no idea how much money i am making. enjoy opex week - unofficially the anons masturbation week where they mentally multiply the size of their paper trade by one hundred

keep on ruining this website, and my mistake for returning.

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Anonymous
admin
April 13, 2016 at 9:51 AM ×

Nico mate ignore the trolls - its the downside of MM's blog becoming more famous :D

Even though I am currently long (hello AUD) I find these twats annoying enough that I almost wish for risk off to shut them up (they go away when market falls).

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anon 9:02
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April 13, 2016 at 10:01 AM × This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
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cink
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April 13, 2016 at 10:16 AM ×

Right on spot anon9:02...

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anon 9:02
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April 13, 2016 at 10:22 AM × This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
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Macro Man
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April 13, 2016 at 11:00 AM ×

Various anons: I have made it clear that I am not interested in an obsession with other people's micro term P/L. The key word here is "macro". You're not wanted. Go away.

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Cityhunter
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April 13, 2016 at 11:06 AM ×

commodities driving risk rally before Chinese data release... well the trade data must have been leaked. GDP on Friday.

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Skr
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April 13, 2016 at 12:02 PM ×

@MM

For clarity reasons, could you please define your timescale of "macro"?
Thanks.

S.

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Amplitudeisofftothebettingshop
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April 13, 2016 at 12:05 PM ×

I wouldn't lend him a sand shoe or a schuloser!...have a look at that grin. My buy back call was wrong. What did I learn this year so far...US dollar has played a big part in allocation decisions into the US market this year...and remember its all relative. We may have witness the sweet spot all round for traders that consider a currency a major factor in global markets. If that's right than a blow off is on it's way. What is the butterfly to cause a blow off if there is one. Anyway, Macro Man..don't worry about that, I've secured some Euro stock that has skin in the game and is from a company that is willing to get out there and run amongst them. :)

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Anonymous
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April 13, 2016 at 12:13 PM ×

IMF "Spring" meet at the weekend. With Kuroda's moves after Davos and the rumour at the last big G meeting of currency peace, wonder what might happen in Washington.

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Macro Man
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April 13, 2016 at 12:15 PM ×

@skr generally three months-plus. Or, to think of it another way, market moves of 5%+ in equities/FX etc. Also, cognizance of bigger picture portfolio construction considerations.

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Error404
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April 13, 2016 at 12:28 PM ×

Oh, I don't know....50y OATS look like quite a nice duration shortener inside a portfolio loaded with 100y Mexicans.

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2and20
admin
April 13, 2016 at 12:56 PM ×

actually the 50y OAT has a shorter duration than the 100y Mex if I'm being picky :)

33 cents/bp on that OAT, only needs a ~5bps widening to wipe out a years interest ouch! (the Mex 2115's a safe-as-houses 19.5 duration).

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Bruce in Tennessee
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April 13, 2016 at 1:17 PM ×

http://wolfstreet.com/2016/04/13/negative-interest-rate-absurdity-nirp-reverse-yankees/

A lot of consumers rely on the income from their bond portfolios and savings – whether directly or indirectly, via a pension fund for example. These consumers get trampled by low and negative interest rates. In turn, they cut back their spending. The more rates fall, the more they cut back.

Companies – even junk-rated ones – can pile on cheap debt. This has created unique opportunities for US companies to sell junk bonds at ultra-low yields to the financially repressed investors in Draghi’s Eurozone. By now, “reverse Yankees,” as these bonds are called, dominate issuance in the euro bond market!

...Not familiar with the term "reverse Yankees"...but it sounds like somebody in the near future is going to be holding the bag...and a pretty big bag, too.

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Anonymous
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April 13, 2016 at 1:25 PM ×

After a hectic day at work treat yourself to a yoni pussy massage.

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April 13, 2016 at 1:49 PM ×

And enjoy all that lovely HPV that comes with it hahah..
Anyway, it might surprise some but seven out of ten of our g10 models point to return to or above CB target inflation this year, along with zeroing in on sub trend growth, some entertaining negative YoY. Like it or not DM EQ will not like this environment.

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Bruce in Tennessee
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April 13, 2016 at 1:54 PM ×

and Lefty, I agree with your UUP suggestion...not that that matters to you. But it is near its 52 week low, and I suspect there is a profitable trade there.

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Booger
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April 13, 2016 at 2:05 PM ×

I wonder if this weak retail sales cements Q1 GDP at a low number, around zero or even negative.

Surprisingly, bucky is taking a while to take it in the shorts. I think there is still a bit of juice to be squeezed out of the dollar correction. Around DX 90, UUP would be good value.

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Anonymous
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April 13, 2016 at 2:09 PM ×

Only 7% of the 50y issue went to the French. The rest went to the international insurance/AM/pension community. Also, a small correction: the other tranche of yesterday was 20y, rather than 30y.

In general, a lot of the interest that arises for this ultra long paper is an expression of the attractiveness of convexity. Moreover, let's not forget that the new French 50y offers a pretty large pickup to swaps (6mE + 88bp), especially as a fraction of the outright yield.

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rohini
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April 13, 2016 at 2:11 PM ×

this china @improvemnt@ has too be usd bullish as gets fed back inlay- kep in mind their 2 rate hikes is still more than market expects...
looking to get short ism..still below 200d here and looks a good spot

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Anonymous
admin
April 13, 2016 at 2:13 PM ×

@iwm@

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Macro Man
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April 13, 2016 at 2:17 PM ×

@ Anon 9.09 You are absolutely right, I knew it was a 20y but when it came to write this I somehow conflated that with 30y in my mind. mea culpa, though the larger points still stand.

And yes, I understand why people bought it, as I tried to allude to in the post. obviously that doesn't mean it's a great idea in an absolute sense, as the earlier comment re DV01 relative to yield noted.

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washedup
admin
April 13, 2016 at 2:17 PM ×

@Boog yes I think we are looking at flat Q1 GDP - pretty amazing considering where the estimates started from (2.5%) - I guess the global economy can matter to the mighty Younited states.
On the dollar if this is destined to only be a correction then its probably over right here around 93-94 - if the dollar bull market is done then its a different story.
Feels like europe and japan are better shorts than spoos just as long as one can withstand the occasional short squeeze like the one we are experiencing right now. Frankly the biggest bullish argument out there continues to be 'but everyone is so bearish and short' - I get it, but as bill clinton would put it, it depends on which one is everyone. Clearly someone is buying for prices to be challenging all time highs (sorry various anons its not CB's) - if its the CTA/quant types then sure, fundamentals don't matter for a while.
Got the discomforting feeling that you get as a trader when everything you watch tells you to be neutral but instinct tells you something big is about to go down - we will see.

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Polemic
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April 13, 2016 at 2:22 PM ×

Washed.. check the time of yesterdays upswings. 3.30 ldn 10.30 ny. I first noted it here when jbtfd would come on comments. Odd yet specific timing. Still think it smacks of models.but those 3.30 booms normally follow through all day and did again. Odd but real.

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Anonymous
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April 13, 2016 at 2:25 PM ×

re washed- i agree with short these but feels its the us -spx and iwm is what I'm lining up.....europe and japan have got trashed and the elastic can only get stretched so much...i'm underwater on spx shorts 2050 but adding on bounces...have got calls as stops given how low premiums are and how big skew is
price action today will be telling- if opening gap closes i think we head to 2000 in quick time

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Booger
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April 13, 2016 at 2:36 PM ×

Washed- I was thinking DX was bottoming around here, but I am beginning to think it might not bottom out until 90. There is still one rate hike priced in this year and expectations can go down further (to zero hikes this year), particularly if Q1 GDP is weak.

I am thinking, one further rally with an OPEC meeting induced oil bounce this weekend to the mid 40's, then things might fall apart from early May.

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Aethelstan
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April 13, 2016 at 2:40 PM ×

Zero % on Sanofi sounds pretty good compared to loosing $6.5bn on Peabody credit. The value of our liabilities reflects the failure to address overcapacity.

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washedup
admin
April 13, 2016 at 3:01 PM ×

Boog - dollar price action last couple of days is very ST bullish in the context of a sideways wedge formation within a bull trend, which is almost conservative, technically speaking.
Pol - somedays I feel the anon's comments may even be model generated. I was just looking at recent tick charts on spoos and I do see your point, smacks of algo buying for sure.
@Anon 2:25 trust me I am rooting for you - for obvious reasons your profit is positively correlated with the overall quality of comments on this board!

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2and20
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April 13, 2016 at 3:19 PM ×

well if you like that Sanofi 0%, then you should be all over Allianz 4y which has just priced today with a 0% coupon also (though actually issued at 0.11% yield).

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Anonymous
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April 13, 2016 at 3:28 PM ×

BUY THE DIP IN EQUITIES !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Anonymous
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April 13, 2016 at 3:52 PM ×

1) The strong yen is part of a generalized weak dollar move (UUP) triggered by the cancellation of the next seven Federal Reserve interest rate hikes brought on by the January stock crash. The Chinese stock crash poured gasoline of the flames.

Over the long term, interest rate differentials explain all foreign currency moves, and the greenback just gave up its advantage.

2) A lot of hedge funds ended 2015 with large short positions in the yen, making them ripe for a short squeeze.

In fact, the net trader’s position swung from a short of 30,300 futures contracts in December to long 50,000 contracts in January. This is a humongous swing of $9 billion in underlying.

Since then, there was been a continuing cycle of traders reestablishing shorts based on poor Japanese fundamentals, then getting stopped out, and repeating the cycle again and again, taking the yen ever higher, and the P&L’s of traders ever lower.

3) April is the beginning of the Japanese fiscal year, and the yen is always strong as Japanese repatriate foreign profits to invest in Japan and avoid local taxes.

4) Despite this massive move in the yen against the long-term economic interests of Japan, the Bank of Japan has not lifted a finger to stop it with more quantitative easing. Negative interest rates only made the yen stronger. As central bank meetings came and went with no effective action, new yen buying waves were triggered.

You really have to ask the question of “How stupid can a government get before they do the right thing?” The answer, to the pain of many forex traders is “A lot more stupid than you think.”

5) The truly amazing thing is that the strong yen continued in the face of a massive capital flight from Japan fleeing the country’s new negative interest rate policy.

According to Japan’s Ministry of Finance, some $3.2 billion left Japan for sunnier climes and higher interest rates in January, followed by $27 billion in February and a staggering $53 billion in March. This enormous outflow will continue for the rest of this year. Notice the hyperbolic increase.

6) Even more amazing is that the yen has continued to appreciate in the face of huge sales of Japanese stocks by foreign investors in Q1, some $63 billion. They are seeking to duck the hit Japanese corporate earnings will take from the strong yen. Some 10% of the total Japanese foreign earnings have vaporized in just three months.

All of this is proof that this is not your father’s trading markets. All asset classes are trading totally differently than they have in the past.

The last time I experienced conditions like this it was in Japan in the early 1990’s, right at the onset of a 20-year financial and economic crash.

Real individual and institutional end investors had totally abandoned the market. All that were left we an odd assortment of hedge funds, bank proprietary books, and spivs.

After the initial six month, 50% crash in the Nikkei Average, nobody made any money. Traders were just batting the same stock back and forth like in a ping-pong match, with little net overall movement.

In other words, it was a trader’s worst nightmare. No one earned even enough to cover their nighttime sushi and Suntory Whiskey bills. And this went on for two decades.

I don’t think this is happening right now in the US. Still, the similarity is unnerving.

So what happens next?

As we approach the second half of 2016, the prospects for a new round of Fed rate raises will return. When that happens, it is back to the penalty box for the yen as its dire fundamentals reassert themselves once more.

I expect it to quickly give up all of its gains for this year and maybe more. One can only hope.

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Anonymous
admin
April 13, 2016 at 4:03 PM ×

Thank you for the discussion on corporate bond world, informative for a tourist here.

I did notice that EMB is approaching to its pre-July 2015 level, that is before China's devaluing and everyone . If anything is going to happen, EM bonds surely will be the first domino to fall, right?

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Hotairmail
admin
April 13, 2016 at 4:13 PM ×

Gav in his FT blog last week likened the Fed actions to something akin to a 'monetary shock' when assessing the Fulcrum models, meagre though it may have seemed at the time.

".....The subsequent recovery was mainly due to one big cause, ie a very large monetary policy shock from the Federal Reserve as the Federal Open Market Committee’s previous determination to “normalise” interest rates in the face of a rising dollar was summarily abandoned...... "

John Authers in another good article today states what many here think; that expectations for this quarter's earnings are so low that they are likely to provide short term impetus in the markets, but questions where profit growth may come from in the medium to long term future for extended valuations (weak dollar and higher commodities maybe?).

Together the two articles put a compellng case for "stronger for longer". Certainly the action is more like a breakout to another leg higher than a 'pop'.

Warning: I've been known to be wrong many times before. Badly. ;-)

(member of the 3-month Macro gang)

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DownWithTheBeanCounters
admin
April 13, 2016 at 5:11 PM ×

CB negative rate enthusiasm isn't universal and some influential European voices (Blanchard) have expressed opposition. Negative rate clearly didn't have the intended effect in Japan and seem to be harmful to loan growth in Europe.

Still, they are thought to be "stimulative" so removing them would be perceived as tightening. Draghi and Kurada might want to eliminate negative rates, but they wouldn't want to tighten or be perceived as tightening. Does anyone have an opinion as to how they might back out of negative rates without out tightening or "tightening"?

Thanks

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Mr. T
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April 13, 2016 at 5:34 PM ×

can someone explain the last cashflow chart to me? What is this - FCF / OCF? Any idea on how this is weighted? Sum across the SPX? Its weird because at least at the universe's I look at in the US the FCF generation is healthy and looks curiously cheap relative to other asset classes.

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Mr. T
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April 13, 2016 at 5:38 PM ×

also just to add a quick EQS on SPX-ex-financials shows TTM OCF of around $1.5T with FCF of about $886B. That is completely at odds with how I look at this plot.

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Anonymous
admin
April 13, 2016 at 5:54 PM ×

Good to see Japanese and European equities shooting higher this week. Definitely looks like the bottom is in, and with the bearish sentiment prevailing we should continue to get lots of short covering. Time for the bears to stay wrong or get long methinks.

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washedup
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April 13, 2016 at 7:11 PM ×

Mr T - best I can tell, you are focused on the absolute level of FCF which is in fact quite healthy, but that cash is shown the door quickly for share buybacks resulting in a large negative balance - I don't see an issue - that's consistent with what we know about the torrid pace of buybacks last few years.
FWIW its not clear to me this is as 'unsustainable' as its made out to be by the doomsdayers, unless of course either rates rise or spreads widen to the point where debt fueled buybacks become infeasible. If we were already past that point equities would be a lot lower than they are, so we clearly are not.

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Anonymous
admin
April 13, 2016 at 7:35 PM ×

Up to 775,000 $VIX calls now...wIth this steep board as the banks start breaking out. insane. What am I missing?

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Anonymous
admin
April 13, 2016 at 7:41 PM ×

MM: "Macro Man cannot help but think that economic historians will shake their heads in future centuries when they read about this whole sordid situation....While the end needn't come imminently, by the same token it isn't necessarily far away, either."

Anyone legitimate person out there pushing back?

How will we know the end is near? What should we be focused on?

Can I protect my families wealth?

How catastrophic will the end be?

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Troll
admin
April 13, 2016 at 8:08 PM ×

Anon 7:41

There is no "end". No need to be focused on fear-mongering.

You can protect your wealth by getting long equities in size as they break out into new highs and later by hedging against inevitable inflation.

The only catastrophe will be for those selling equities as central banks go to extreme lengths to inflate asset prices to hitherto unforeseen levels.

You're welcome.

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Anonymous
admin
April 13, 2016 at 9:31 PM ×

Motorcycle license plate outside GS offices today - SLLVOL

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Anonymous
admin
April 13, 2016 at 10:35 PM ×

Lots of crazy anon comments the last few days, followed by large moves higher in equities. Nikkei and Eurostoxx up over 3% today alone. Interesting.

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Anonymous
admin
April 13, 2016 at 10:45 PM ×

The S&P went from red for 2016 to new 2016 highs in 2 days. WTF??? What is everyone missing???

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abee crombie
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April 13, 2016 at 11:42 PM ×

Thanks for the japan comments anon 3:52, I agree mostly.

Its kinda funny when we talk about LT being 3 months. anyways, if that is the time frame the market focuses on, which I think is correct, then maybe we should look at the data which in most places has clearly gone from "oh shit, were are freefalling" to "greenshoots" Guess what, that is the time you make the most money in the markets, bc of short covering and deep value bounce backs. PMI's are slowly improving, shit even China PPI stopped going down. THIS IS WHAT THE MARKET CARES ABOUT. expectations were getting so low, now they are still low, data is still crap but not WORSE than expectations. get it?

XME still powering higher. Not an expert there, but do think we have way too much capacity and this is a good LT short, but then again so does everyone else. Look at price action, as long as it goes higher, play from the long side, IMO. That along with Oil, HYG and EM FX stable is a good risk on sign. I dont know how long it lasts, but for me, its what I am looking at.

I didnt dig into the bank #'s but at first glance this is really good news for markets

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Anonymous
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April 14, 2016 at 12:13 AM × This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
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Macro Man
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April 14, 2016 at 1:14 AM ×

Any version of SPX RULZ, SHORTZ ARE FULZ is an autodelete

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