Hit and run

Hit and run.

On the one hand, it's a cowardly and morally despicable crime that involves high-tailing it away from the scene of a traffic collision, regardless of the severity of the injuries caused by the perpetrator.

On the other hand, it's a strategy occasionally used in baseball in which a runner on first base breaks for second and the batter attempts to direct the ball through the gap left by a fielder who moves to cover a putative throw from the catcher.

On the third hand (if you're an octopus or swim too often in Springfield's river), it seems to be the only way to trade profitably at the moment.  Consider market price action since the payroll number.   The dollar gapped higher and actually held most of its gains through Friday's close.  Since then, however, the euro has more than re-couped its losses...

...and it's not like you can blame it on some nonsensical Greek headlines.   For the first time in while, price action in USD/JPY has turned poor, as it too has given up all its gains (and perhaps the ghost?) since payrolls:

Fixed income has fared a little better in holding on to its moves, though it still looks a little squeezy.  Macro Man posited on twitter last Friday that the whites would give back their losses by Wednesday; although EDM6 is still the first red contract, simply extrapolating the last 30 hours' price action makes the forecast look accurate.

Interestingly, the one market that hasn't shown much sign of any giddyup is equities, where Spooz are currently trading at their lowest levels in a month.  In terms of elegant thematic consistency, this market is sadly lacking.

All of this leaves punters with two choices:  trade for the long haul and try to live through the noise (probably the best  course for maximizing risk-adjusted returns but the worst course for keeping the boss off of your back), or go full-on five minute macro and trade hit and run.   Sadly, this is probably the most realistic option for many punters, which in  many ways renders it a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The trick, of course, is to do it in the baseball sense (looking to score runs in small increments) rather than a vehicular sense, leaving a trail of injuries (including, potentially, your own!) in your wake.