The last but two

Well, yesterday's ECB meeting proved to be more Titus Andronicus than Hamlet or Romeo and Juliet, with Draghi performing his usual trick of doing nothing but promising reaallllyyyyy hard to do something really quite impressive if the governing council makes up its mind.

To be fair, opening the possibility of purchasing a broad range of assets could be quite powerful; of course, even if the ECB were "only" to do standard sovereign QE, they would be purchasing a much broader range of assets than the Fed, BOE, or BOJ.  After all, didn't the entire Eurocrisis revolve around the fact that a BTP (or Bono, or GGB, or OAT, etc.) is a completely different animal from a Bund?

Of course, a number of questions remain.   Perhaps the thorniest is what exactly QE in Europe could hope to accomplish.   Draghi trotted out the usual song and dance about lowering risk premia, the portfolio channel effect, etc. etc.  Certainly it seems difficult to credit that the level of sovereign yields is proving an impediment to growth, given that they're at record lows across vast swathes of the Eurozone, erstwhile crisis countries included.

The portfolio channel effect could prove to be a more effective one, but then again, there are reasons to expect it to work less well than in other countries.   The fragmented nature of Eurozone asset markets across national borders make it less likely, it would seem, that certain assets would be seen as acceptable substitutes than in other countries.   If the ECB buys Bunds, are the holders really going to run out and purchase shares in Santander or Intesa?  It seems dubious.  Credit easing is what's really needed, but alas that's much easier said than done.

Draghi's anchoring on the oil price was also curious, insofar as there would appear little that the ECB could do to alter the trajectory of crude;  the prior president of the ECB, a certain M. Trichet, demonstrated how foolhardy it is to chase the in- or de-flationary will-o-the-wisps caused by the oil market.  In this case, perhaps Mario was simply using energy prices to add a little zest to his warnings over lover prices; from Macro Man's perch, however, it weakened rather than strengthened his credibility.

For the time being, market focus may shift back to the dollar side of the equation and the US, what with payrolls and what not today.  Macro Man's model remains relatively upbeat, looking for an out-turn of  257k; he would note, however, that it has tended to be somewhat over-optimistic for the last few months.

With USD/JPY at its highest level since the financial world went 'bang', there must be at least an amber light of caution that a lot of good news is in the price.  Not to beat the same old tired drum, but there looks to be a lot less priced in to EDZ5 than USD/JPY; as such, in his personal trading, Macro Man has kept his option structures in the former while taking profits in the latter this week.

Macro Man cannot help but recall that last December's payroll was a strong one, keying a higher dollar and yields while allowing equities to keep rocking.  Virtually the entire street is probably hoping for a repeat, though much more on the dollar axis than rates these days.

Insofar as the year is drawing swiftly to a close, punters will likely have relatively little tolerance for a drawdown in the event of adverse data.  All the more reason to follow the road less traveled and keep the rates trades rather than the dollar for the time being.

After all, today's figure is the last really important release of the year but two (assuming the Japanese election is a foregone conclusion); other than this, we've got the second TLTRO tender and the Fed, after which the entire macro industry will probably heave a whopping sigh and look forward to the holidays.

Who knows?   If today's number doesn't play ball, that process might start a bit early.
Previous
Next Post »

127 comments

Click here for comments
Nico G
admin
December 5, 2014 at 10:00 AM ×

what the fuck is wrong with deflation anyway?

like one dude blogged today, would you rather live in Japan the last 20 years, or Weimar/Argentina

oh yeah Japanese have had 20 years of deflation. they were filthy rich throughout and travelling the world shooting V photos.

Draghi has lost all (if any) credibility mentioning oil yesterday. Oil like 98% of what is traded today is 98% speculation, 2% funda.

is oil back to 70$ really deflationary. Wait, wasn't oil shooting from 10 to 148$ a little bit inflationish if you reconsider 1998-2008

there is only one issue to fix today. LEVERAGE. You central bankers stop trying to promote inflation at all cost, for what you get is speculation, only

without LEVERAGE oil is stable at 48$ a barrel, spoos are 1400, stoxx50 at 2500, and yields become yields again




Reply
avatar
Nico G
admin
December 5, 2014 at 10:10 AM ×

oil at $12

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Why-Oil-Prices-are-10-Times-More-than-in-1998.html

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 5, 2014 at 10:49 AM ×

nico 10am
absolutely agree mate...while real wages down whats wrong with low inflation...and who says 2%is the magic number anyway
this doesn't end well and compared to 2008 when there was decent liquidity all the way down , this time liquidity is going to be a major issue.
yes , i know music playing etc etc , but i am not involved here-actually haven't been for the last 100 spoo points (ALSO MISSED LAST 500 DAX POINTS!) but is what it is.
if this rallies on i am ok with the call i made

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 5, 2014 at 11:23 AM ×

Here's the thing. Central bankers are not traders.

We're into Round 10 of a 12 Round heavyweight fight. Germany v Draghi. Obama v Putin.

Reply
avatar
CV
admin
December 5, 2014 at 11:35 AM ×

"without LEVERAGE oil is stable at 48$ a barrel, spoos are 1400, stoxx50 at 2500, and yields become yields again"

I tend to agree with this, but what is the play then ... are you betting on a policy mistake at the ECB? If so, fair enough, but otherwise we are back at sliding down them razor blades using your balls as breaks. I think MM had the key point ... the great fear of deflation (which is rational given the enormous amount of debt we have built up) means that CBs will prime the pressos for much much longer.

Oh, incidentally, I agree with the comments on Draghi and oil ... that was a shambles! The ECB is one step away from a huge market revolt, but eventually they will pull the trigger.

The capacity for fiat money systems to create price appreciation in nominally anchored assets is probably THE big macro trend right now. With CPI measured price pressures very, well what do you want? It is Goldilocks on speed ... it is insane, but what do you want?

Just remember, keep rotating them sectors! :)

Claus

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 5, 2014 at 11:41 AM ×

Funny how some people here still entertain the illusion that there is anything else than pure pretense at rationality in rate / QE setting decision process in monetary policy.
The world of central bankers is a small and exclusive club where herd instinct is prevalent.

They might veil their ultimate goal with macro / micro / econometrics "analysis" but, in a way, the objective is mostly political.

This type of analysis is disheartening for Macro traders as it introduces an additional element of randomness in the trading process and removes some alpha.

All this translates into higher correlation of risk assets and lower performance for the macro crowd (readers of this blog excepted, of course)

Did Draghi loose any credibility focussing, as he did yesterday, on oil? I believe not. He is just playing his hand and everyone knows it.

Reply
avatar
Polemic
admin
December 5, 2014 at 1:51 PM ×

Dear lord, did I press the eject button on my german industrials too early. Statement not question.

So the curve of QE expectations has steepened out of sight. front end dropped to zero but jan/ feb seems to be pricing in Abe style tsunamis of free money, if we were to look at what European assets have done this morning.

Oh well, if ECB are considering every type of asset oner than gold I wonder if they'll take a couple of 20 year old cars I have on my drive and a pile of old cds and VHS's, a tangle of wire from old chargers belonging to devices I no longer own and a pile of Good House Keeping magazines that the wife resolutely refuses to throw out. If not perhaps we could wrap all of the above in an ABS and get them to buy that.

Yours a despondent and even less understanding Pol.



Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 5, 2014 at 2:31 PM ×

Does Greenspan read MM?
"Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, who was blamed by some economists for overheating equity and housing prices in the 1990s and 2000s, said that were he in the job today, he would take pre-emptive action to tackle asset bubbles if they were financed by leverage"

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 5, 2014 at 2:32 PM ×

Link to Greenspan:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-04/greenspan-says-he-would-pre-empt-asset-bubbles-financed-by-debt.html

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 5, 2014 at 2:45 PM ×

I would have headed the article with a little provocating headline. Why not:
"Greenspan find new economic virginity in retirement"
Interesting how once they abdicate their craving for crowd adulation, they suddenly think about rewriting history and hope to balance their legacy with a few "honest" comments.

Reply
avatar
Leftback
admin
December 5, 2014 at 3:10 PM ×

Interesting one from the random number generator at BLS, might have guessed they would do that. A quick look reveals the expected flood of part-time hires for the holidays while full-time jobs are actually down. Factory orders down 0.7% which is, you know, actual hard data, not surveys by 12 year olds working for Obama.

Muted market reaction suggests most punters can't decide whether this is too good (hawkish) or the same old sloppy shit (dovish). Bond market suggests a few people were offside but nothing more. FX moves towards the 1,2000 EURUSD and DX 90 levels. Once they have pinned the tail on the donkey perhaps we can get back to reality.

IYR the laggard today, which makes sense at least, looking at rates.

Reply
avatar
Nico G
admin
December 5, 2014 at 3:21 PM ×

Claus,

never trust an Italian

i once lived in Italy for years, i speak the language, have many great Italian friends but as much as i love them i repeat, never trust an Italian

trade on Draghi at your own peril. The Germans are in charge in Europe, not Goldman, not him and you know that Germans never bend rules

Reply
avatar
washedup
admin
December 5, 2014 at 3:32 PM ×

i wish i could figure out what the 'draghi trade' even is - if he turns out to be FOS and fails miserably am i supposed to buy the euro because there won't be a QE, or sell it because the eurozone disappears down the worm hole in a few years - or maybe buy it because russia will soon get resolved because of the economist cover. But wait, sell it because european equities are priced for QE due to foreign buying...
I am raising cash and will be contacting amp's pharmacist soon (where is that wily old curmudgeon anyway - did MM banish him off the board?)

Reply
avatar
Nico G
admin
December 5, 2014 at 4:09 PM ×

i will call Draghi the master bull cheater

meaning, he will deceive bulls in the end, the guys who've followed him blindly since the whatever days

some friends in Italy in our line of business, big macro funds, or family boutiques etc have ultimately resorted to FAITH. They are long Italian banks up to their eyeballs just because 'it will work' they have said goodbye to any form of reasoning/auditing. And i mean, coming from really sharp guys. You just cannot discuss Italian equities with them anymore.

their latest hope this year was Renzi, and that Renzi and Draghi would be best friends and secretly agree to make them rich. then Renzi finally got the full flavor of the top job and the reason why they've had 50 governments in 70 years or so

anyway back to CBs - you could follow the Fed on the actual, effective POMO days, you can follow Abe's folly for he kamikaze executes what he says

but you cannot envisage Europe in the same paradigm (always wanted to use that word. done) i do not know how many of your folks are Europeans, or live in Europe, and/or understand how fragmented Europe is (Europe is NOT a country !!!)

and how difficult the decision process is over there. Draghi saved risky European assets with words only. What he proposed was either unconstitutional thus never existed (OMT) or too lame (the LTROPPOs)

and lately, his antics remind me of the worst i have overheard in Riga discotheques, from Italian players trying to pull gullible six foot blondes

so bulls hear that Draghi will not take you to his mother's place so you can taste her cooking no he did not really mean it when he'd do whatever it takes to make you happy

at the last party sorry, meeting Merkel even heard that famous Italian line 'you must be bruised - since you just fell from heaven' and was almost taken until Weidmann abruptly summoned her back to her senses

Reply
avatar
Leftback
admin
December 5, 2014 at 4:34 PM ×

Nico! Brilliant.

"overheard in Riga discotheques, from Italian players trying to pull gullible six foot blondes"

Quality. Absolute classic. Mangler still carries a torch for Super Mario though, after their tryst in Südtirol.

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 5, 2014 at 4:39 PM ×

On US equity this year, it looks like Dow 18000, SP 2100, and Nasdaq 4800 are within reach in a few days. Would that be a signal to start short this market? Pice is news nowadays and I can see 18100 as a nice entry point if we can get there by the end of the year. Just a thought on a slow Friday.

Reply
avatar
Leftback
admin
December 5, 2014 at 4:41 PM ×

Btw, how about this flattener? 2s up 11 bps on that dodgy, I mean, SUPER STRONG jobs report.

Don't fancy yours, mate. Mind you, we had a fake spike like this early in 2011 and it all came to naught. Not a place you want to be dicking around though, the front end. Like asking a NYPD cop if you can see his night stick.....

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 5, 2014 at 4:41 PM ×

My god, every time I come here people want to short this market. And then they wonder why it grinds higher.

Reply
avatar
Leftback
admin
December 5, 2014 at 4:43 PM ×

Anon, it looks as though we'll have to endure DX 90 before this thing turns around. No point in shorting anything much until FX momentum changes.

Reply
avatar
Polemic
admin
December 5, 2014 at 4:46 PM ×

Why short anything before it starts to go down?
I think we are going to have to invent the reverse maxim of catching falling knives?

The bamboo torture?

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 5, 2014 at 4:56 PM ×

On words alone...

Germany's Dax closes 2.4% higher at 10087.12 a fresh historic high

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 5, 2014 at 4:58 PM ×

On more words alone...

Spain's 10yr yield hits fresh historic low at 1.80%

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 5, 2014 at 4:58 PM ×

It has never been so easy to become filthy rich.

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 5, 2014 at 5:04 PM ×

"According to information from the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung some advocates of so-called quantitative easing spoke at the two-day meeting on Wednesday and Thursday from a volume of more than 1,000 billion euros. "It was more than a trillion balance sheet expansion, which is not yet public," said an insider of the euro system FAZ"

http://tinyurl.com/kgu9hrf

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 5, 2014 at 5:09 PM ×

Anon @ 4:41 PM

My best trade in the past few weeks was to short AAPL, short XRT short SPY on 11/28, and got out on 12/1.

As far as I can see, the best short term trading idea for a retail trader AFTER US equities reached these levels is to short.

Short multinationals, short retail, short big tech even. And get out quickly.

I remember last year this time, the market seemed to be unstoppable. Everyone was chasing the rotation and every bear had been slaughtered. And then there was the sharp correction at the beginning of 2014. I am having the same feeling again. The catalyst last time was extreme cold and EM risks. I do not know what it is going to be this time, maybe it is the HY default as you all had discussed for several days, maybe it is Europe/China again, or it could be some huge snow storms in NYC next month. I do not think the consumption had picked up given the low gas price so the job gains would likely to lose and inventory is going to be a problem. Then adding strong dollar and less capex from energy sector, I will just bet that market will have a correction there.

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 5, 2014 at 5:20 PM ×

C Says
In essence I think what they are getting from the lower yields is not necessarily anything to do with removing the impediment for credit. Rather I think it is to basically make people desist from hoarding cash. The latter get's squeezed out in myriad ways into the economy. For example, as cash is so unproductive I threw a £1k across the counter today to buy LB a USD swatter.Now I probably would not do that if more productive possibilities were calling to me.

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 5, 2014 at 5:20 PM ×

C Says
In essence I think what they are getting from the lower yields is not necessarily anything to do with removing the impediment for credit. Rather I think it is to basically make people desist from hoarding cash. The latter get's squeezed out in myriad ways into the economy. For example, as cash is so unproductive I threw a £1k across the counter today to buy LB a USD swatter.Now I probably would not do that if more productive possibilities were calling to me.

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 5, 2014 at 5:40 PM ×

@Anon at 4:58, that may very well be true, but somehow I am managing to eff it up!

- Whammer

Reply
avatar
Mr. T
admin
December 5, 2014 at 6:06 PM ×

@Anon I don't think everyone here wants to short the markets (well maybe ED's), there is actually a pretty good spread of opinions and if there is a consensus its that things are stretched but the forces pushing them have no indication of letting up so you have to join in.

I'm very much out of sync with everything and am basically flat which brings its own perspectives. Long lunches seem much more important than outguessing some fed head. Santa rallies look inevitable in the form of more of what we've seen. Although I've yet to actually put much of anything on piling into the 2s10s flattener seems like a reasonable bet. The 2's at 65 seem a little rich, even assuming a static FFR through next year. Rates are rising in corpFI but it's nothing alarming, even in the energy space. Some of the real levered players there might run into trouble, but its literally years out and if the bet is sub-$65 oil 4 years out thats not scary enough for me to pass up some reasonable yields and prices (say 5.1% on BB+).

Stuffs buyable. It's maybe not the ideal entry, but you are paying up for what looks like a very stable, supportive backdrop.

So my EOY predictions (worth what you are paying for 'um):


US2Y: 70
US10Y: 225 (2s10s@155)
SPX: 2150
NDX: 4400
USDJPY: 125
AUDUSD: .82
EURUSD: 1.25
EDZ5: 99.0
CL1: 62 (XLE @ 85)
JNK: 39


Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 5, 2014 at 6:29 PM ×

Nico! I didnt get much of the macro analogies in your post but this one made me feel smart again!

"overheard in Riga discotheques, from Italian players trying to pull gullible six foot blondes"

Reply
avatar
Leftback
admin
December 5, 2014 at 6:56 PM ×

Mr T:

I just discovered this gem following Shakes/Macro's soliloquy

"you go to war with the market you have, not the one you want."

Truer words were never spoken.

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 5, 2014 at 7:14 PM ×

Standard & Poor's cut Italy's long- and short-term credit rating to a notch above junk status Friday, lowering its rating to BBB-/A-3

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 5, 2014 at 7:27 PM ×

Obama has this policing thing under control:

Obama Calls for Cameras on Police Tanks

Reply
avatar
December 5, 2014 at 7:30 PM ×

@nicog
Maybe some racist words on Italy... I don't Like generalism, in every sauce... i'm italian and i don't like draghi... I'm top really tired of these markets... As many of us probably... But CBs decided to make asset prices and don't pay debts.. They don't care about second effects... Amen...

Reply
avatar
washedup
admin
December 5, 2014 at 7:40 PM ×

im a 6ft tall blond latvian that hangs out at bars in riga - this nico's making me sound really dumb and I i don't like it...

Just kidding - here is a weekend thought experiment for you guys - I believe a possibility for the next decade is a 'capital going home' theme where global trade grows at a fraction of GDP growth as opposed to say, many multiples like the last 3 decades - we are already seeing evidence of this in the last 3 years as many of u know.

So, here is the question - what would the fair value for EUR/USD, USD/RMB, USD/JPY, and AUD/USD be in the extreme event that there was no global trade at all, and all sovereigns were forced to become closed systems. Please feel free to ignore if you have more fun things to do with your time (such as visit Latvia).

Reply
avatar
December 5, 2014 at 7:49 PM ×

Draghi isn't different from kuroda or bernanke... The only small difference is that he's using other' credibility or money... Thanks germany

Reply
avatar
washedup
admin
December 5, 2014 at 8:08 PM ×

when did bernanke and kuroda ever promise their mama's cooking to anyone? c'mon..

draghi is different to the extent that he is, well, more flamboyant, and naturally optimistic, and it comes through in the atmospherics - possibly a good trait for a central banker as long as people actually want him to be right and believe the goods he is selling to be useful.

Only as long as, and not a second more - I do not see the mario story at ECB ending well. Read some research recently that had a 'words to action' metric for various central bankers - kuroda scored highest and mario lowest - funnily, if u put japanese and italian math students, auto executives, or movie stars, or chefs, or athletes, or grocery store clerks to that test ud reach similar conclusions atleast statistically.

So, not intended as typecasting, but it would be foolish to presume we aren't products of our culture(s) no matter how much we pretend otherwise..

Reply
avatar
December 5, 2014 at 8:20 PM ×

@washedup: irony isn't only restricted to english people..
Words to action ratio OK for kuroda.... Try with effects/money spent and the ranking will be inverted.... Risk management ratio for CBs...

Reply
avatar
Nico G
admin
December 5, 2014 at 8:25 PM ×

oops oops BBB-/A-3

Draghi is much different than the other two who have already 'done it' and challenge him to go for it. Like smoking the first cigarette with your two summer friends.

and context could not be more different:

the Bernank had a kingdom of fear to justify his 'emergency' action and kickstart the QE machine. Goldman Sachs was about to go bust when he pressed the Q button. Fear works

Kuroda is only the abiding, third money arm of the great man Abe who has an immensely ambitious nationalist, political view about Japan i.e. to shake off a millenium old country mentality and exhort more risk taking

you can't see that in Brussels ever with so many nations involved and the leading one a little bit reluctant to spend its hard earn money on nations who always have had it too good especially a certain one who had to make a living by going around rules

if you want to discuss Italy and Japan similarities it has to be about the epic level of food and excellence in design, about how elegant their ladies are. But you could not have two populations, two psyches more different on this planet


as for market calls here noone is permaanything, if you short you have to trim your timeframe dramatically if you go long you need to remember you ain't the first guy crashing the party and trail accordingly

like the great Jim Jeffreries said about boobs 'it's like golf you play the course you're on'. (Jim Jefferies is the answer to many of our problems)

theBond

this was not racist at all, Italians go crazy lengths to get laid, for the so many Italian friends seen in action a night out has to be FIRST about scoring, and then maybe to have a laugh with their buddies

such was only meant to be an analogy with Draghi determined to get his way no matter what, and then maybe to have to repel his acts in 20 years time when he write his autobio 'Tengo na bazooka tanta'

ti chiedo scusa se te ho offeso

good week end everyone

Reply
avatar
Nico G
admin
December 5, 2014 at 8:31 PM ×

PS: my monster phd Quantanamo model give me 2108 year end on spoos

or whatever is 14% performance for 2014, i could not do the maths

Reply
avatar
December 5, 2014 at 9:04 PM ×

What was the huge fear in qe2 or qe3 in US??
Fear works in europe too... Recession deflation bla bla bla... Only germany can stop Draghi... Do you think that France oppose qe???
@nico... I accept the analogy... Only i don't understand when you tell never trust an italian..
Personally i hope that draghi will be stopped.

Reply
avatar
Polemic
admin
December 6, 2014 at 10:19 AM ×

perhaps.. just perhaps .. someone in the EU may notice that 1% here or there on interest rates.. is really nothing when compared to the tax systems and regulatory systems in most european countries. France s own home grown internal barriers to growth are gargantuan when compared to interest rates.

I think ECB should do nothing and throw it back to the EU and national governments to finally sort out the structural, fiscal and regulatory problems that are really at the core of many of europes problems. I actually feel sorry for the ECB. These problems aren t their making but they are expected to provide cures for the overweight smoking Europe.

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 6, 2014 at 12:15 PM ×

@bond - I think nico meant he'll promise the sun & moon to get what he wants (laid) then not deliver.

Don't we al!

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 6, 2014 at 6:16 PM ×

Here's a potential avenue for the next recession:

http://fortune.com/2014/10/28/global-recession-us-europe-china/

The article is arguing on the basis of Chinese and other EM exports and private sector debt. As EM export growth is drying up, there is a time of local debt de-leveraging coming up, which might hit European (German) exports first and after that the US post-crisis export-oriented growth. Remember that over 30% of the US post-crisis job growth are related to exports.

The US private sector has done a fine job in de-leveraging, but in Europe this process never really even began. The unemployment is still sky-rocketing and the Euro-integrity might be facing some serious shocks in the next recession, if z Germans are not willing to ease up spending, inflation through wage growth etc.

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 7, 2014 at 5:36 PM ×

Capital markets aside, last night's riot at Berkeley is a sign of things to come. Look forward to a summer of rubber bullets and tear gas:

Rubber Bullets

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 7, 2014 at 5:37 PM ×

Another marvelously outdated song:

Wall Street Shuffle

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 7, 2014 at 8:33 PM ×

The system is broken. What else is there to say.

Loan Reserve Multiplier (Total Loans/Cash Assets)
http://imgur.com/jYCJM2e

Velocity of M2 Money Supply
http://imgur.com/PiAgxKB

Reply
avatar
Nico G
admin
December 8, 2014 at 4:40 AM ×

TheBond

Fear for QE1 only. Fear started QE1 and once it was started it was plenty easy to roll over 2 3 4 5

tutti i miei carissimi amici italiani si fanno solo sentire quando hanno bisogno di qualcosa. Forse non e un tratto solo italiano ma fine a ora i campioni paraculi sono loro.

Polemic

you could never write a truer thing - whatever ECB foolishly promises, it is up to governments to do the grueling job at home

only, not one politician in Europe is up to the standard and it must be horrible for Draghi to have to deal with such fuckwits every day

if Hollande was any bright he'd be working at Goldman sachs (haha). Look at our glorious president. What a leader in the making

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2hn46FffnIA

Europe is old and spoilt and broken and Europe's best clients at export all those EM nouveaux riches have problems back home etc etc

i agree with that Fortune article that Europe and EM will drag the US down and not the other way around hence why punting on Europe equities catching up to US performance seems pure folly

bon appétit Francois

Reply
avatar
amplitudeinthehouse
admin
December 8, 2014 at 11:33 AM ×

The closer for the year..
NYC boys..Piss off!




Reply
avatar
amplitudeinthehouse
admin
December 8, 2014 at 11:50 AM ×

And a special closer for the desk down south..
A special Piss off to you!

Reply
avatar
amplitudeinthehouse
admin
December 8, 2014 at 12:22 PM ×

Best bet next year?..me never risking my left nut for those #%$%&&**&*( ever again.Done

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 8, 2014 at 1:24 PM ×

Amps, did you take your pills lately ?

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 8, 2014 at 1:36 PM ×

Bond yields...
“Inflation is a non-story, and as long as inflation is a non-story, we’re not going back to those elevated yield levels,” David Robin, an interest-rate strategist at Newedge, an institutional brokerage firm, said in a Dec. 3 telephone interview in New York. “We’re not going back there.”

“Over time, what drives the bond yield is the inflationary expectations,” ( Lacy )Hunt said by telephone on Dec. 2. “If you wring all the inflationary expectations out, you are going down to 2 percent on the long bond over the next several years. That is the path that we are on.”

For David Jones, the former vice chairman at Aubrey G. Lanston & Co. and a 51-year bond veteran, the notion that Treasury yields are too low is being shaped by traders, money managers and economists who began their careers in the wake of runaway inflation surpassing 10 percent in the 1970s and 1980s. With U.S. consumer prices rising at the slowest pace in five decades and economic growth weakening around the world, today’s bond market may now be reverting back to form, he said."

“We have come full circle,” Jones, 76, said by telephone on Dec. 1 from Denver. “Rather than decrying how low interest rates are and expecting them to shoot higher, it may be that we’re in more normal territory than we thought we were.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-08/one-hundred-years-of-bond-history-means-bears-destined-to-lose.html

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 8, 2014 at 1:41 PM ×

Japan third-quarter GDP revised down to annualized 1.9 percent contraction | Reuters http://ow.ly/FvAUC

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 8, 2014 at 3:14 PM ×

The commodity carnage is getting somewhat incredible. Perhaps the Chinese and accommodating EM slow down is more serious than what we might depict from the official numbers.

There are some pretty decent yields being offered in the base metals mining sector. Cash flows will start tanking of course but so should the huge CAPEX's mitigating these effects. These guy's are going to have to start bottoming out somewhere as weaker hand capacity starts going offline.

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 8, 2014 at 3:29 PM ×

Nico, thanks for the Jim Jefferies reference; I had never heard of him. I just watched his gun control bit -- fantastic!

- Whammer

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 8, 2014 at 3:35 PM ×

Lombard St saying warning lights starting to flicker on global leading indicators
Korea and Mexico join #Germany and #Japan as economies where our LI point to worse growth prospects than consensus forecasts.
Consensus is for growth in US to remain robust but slow marginally in early 2015. Our indicators point to slight slowing in 2H 2015
Our Japanese LI did not worsen over the last month
but continues to point to around zero growth heading into 2015.

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 8, 2014 at 3:38 PM ×

DJ ConocoPhillips Cuts 2015 Drilling Budget by 20% --THIS WILL BE THE FIRST OF MANY! These moves will hit 2015 GDP hard.
U.S. domestic energy support 9.8M jobs paying ~600B in total wages, and add up to 1.2T for the US economy

Reply
avatar
amplitudeinthehouse
admin
December 8, 2014 at 3:41 PM ×

anon..1.24
Take them everyday, thanks for asking.
But still I can see through the haze of bullshit..I just want to drop one one of these days and never have any image of these bullshit talkers within my paradigm of existence again. I'd rather be broke and destitute than sit at the desk with a team I have no idea now who they are or what they represent and going from the form I am not willing to find out.
See ya.

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 8, 2014 at 3:45 PM ×

Is Venezuela headed for default? 5yr default probability has jumped to a record 87%. http://cnb.cx/1G5J8fs

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 8, 2014 at 5:27 PM ×

what has just happened?

Reply
avatar
Leftback
admin
December 8, 2014 at 5:27 PM ×

Market looks a little bit illiquid today. Perhaps they realized that with everyone long the same things, one day there might not be a buyer.

Reply
avatar
Price Is News
admin
December 8, 2014 at 5:39 PM ×

"what has just happened?"

Spoos shat ten handles, that's what happened.

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 8, 2014 at 5:56 PM ×

@amps
Good to hear, you sounded a little... indignant.

@anon 3:45
Don't take CDS spreads and implied PDs at face value. There is a lot of noise in there like liquidity, currently impact of new regulation and the like... take it more like an indicator that Chavez faces a few bumps down the road. Sov CDS is not a bet on sovereign default but on the fact that the rules will be applied as you think they will... (think about the mess around Greece for example).

Reply
avatar
Mr. T
admin
December 8, 2014 at 6:20 PM ×

IG energy +3bp on the day, HY +17. Thats +450bp from the summer for HY, +70 for IG.

I just don't see how inflation figures are going to be able to swim upstream against the huge price drops in commodity pricing. And why are SPX EPS guesses still increasing?

Reply
avatar
washedup
admin
December 8, 2014 at 6:32 PM ×

s&p eps guesses are increasing because they are lagging, not leading indicators (if under x conditions these guys were able to make y then imagine with cheaper gasoline etc etc), and for energy companies include hedging gains which will protect things for a quarter or so.
I am actually struck by the same thing LB observed - liquidity, is - HORRENDOUS - these markets are on very very thin ice gents - don't know if its only a 3 week issue or something else is afoot

Reply
avatar
Nico G
admin
December 8, 2014 at 7:06 PM ×

big thing else is afoot

if you thought you could get 30% in 2013 and 14% in 2014 while sleeping at night, think again

oil shows how deep you go when a bubble breaks, usually to the tune of 70%

no Santa this year his basket was so loaded it collapsed through thin Laconian ice

blame leverage and global warming

Reply
avatar
abee crombie
admin
December 8, 2014 at 8:18 PM ×

they are running for the hills in Canadian oil divy names...

Reply
avatar
Polemic
admin
December 8, 2014 at 8:27 PM ×

Everyone ready for a 'that shouldn't have happened' pre christmas dump to catch out the Santa Rallyists just when they could smell the christmas pud?

Waiter ? this rally smells off..

Reply
avatar
Leftback
admin
December 8, 2014 at 8:41 PM ×

"For David Jones, the former vice chairman at Aubrey G. Lanston & Co. and a 51-year bond veteran, the notion that Treasury yields are too low is being shaped by traders, money managers and economists who began their careers in the wake of runaway inflation surpassing 10 percent in the 1970s and 1980s. "

Yes, like the Germans, always fighting the last battle, or a battle from long ago that is deeply burned into the psyche. I grew up in the 70s (some would say that process hasn't yet ended). This isn't the 70s...

We have reached deep carnage in E&P stocks. It's not over, but ESV and RIG now trading near to book. I'll get interested eventually.

Counter-trend bounce tomorrow?

Reply
avatar
December 8, 2014 at 8:41 PM ×

@nico. Ora che siamo amici se ho bisogno di qualcosa ti chiamo!!! Ahah ti capisco...

Dangerous markets... No more to add...

Reply
avatar
Leftback
admin
December 8, 2014 at 8:45 PM ×

We have been going in and out of IWM puts and TLT calls for a while now and making some money at it. Out for now. Our adventures in the world of emerging markets have been rather less successful. Having a small pop at short EWJ and long JPY this week, we'll see how that shakes out. Leave the Spoos alone, I say!

Reply
avatar
December 8, 2014 at 8:56 PM ×

Carnage on russian paper... What i can't reconcile is the lack of contagion... For example no widening on oil credit in europe.. Eni paper trade at 0.5 yield

Reply
avatar
December 8, 2014 at 9:11 PM ×

Or at least draghi qe is becoming expensive...

Reply
avatar
Leftback
admin
December 8, 2014 at 9:17 PM ×

One of the most rotten things about a very rotten time in US history is the asymmetric application of the law. For example, we all know that Icahn must be breaking the securities laws every time he opens his mouth, but the SEC never does any enforcement.

Meanwhile, if you sell a few ciggies (or are merely suspected of so doing), it's a capital offence. Here is Matt Taibbi at his polemical best, including a bit on the Broken Windows policy that animates the NYPD:

Police in America

It's all going to go off, he's right. It's unavoidable.

For those who are interested Broken Windows theory was a bastard child of some University of Chicago racist and was embraced by Guiliani and NYPD chief Bratton. As a piece of social science it has been thoroughly debunked, most notably by the Freakonomics guys.

Reply
avatar
CV
admin
December 8, 2014 at 9:31 PM ×

"Everyone ready for a 'that shouldn't have happened' pre christmas dump to catch out the Santa Rallyists just when they could smell the christmas pud?"

He he he, it is starting to feel that way isn't ... ? I am starting to think that this is exactly where we are going. I would rather that it all stayed nice and calm though since I am holding some positions that are just starting to run a little bit. It would be mightily annoying if the bears had their way just before the finishing line ;).

As for the ECB, which has been debated a lot, I have little to add, but still. A policy mistake (i.e a stumble in January) is now a clear risk, but the most likely scenario, in my view, is still a rather "unpleasant" (for the bears) Nirvana of ultra loose monetary policy and a slightly stabilising economy, at least for a while next year. But I am speaking to a wall here ... I know.

Oh and just cap off ... yes, for god's sake ... key your hard earned margin money off of them Spoos!

Claus

Reply
avatar
Nico G
admin
December 9, 2014 at 5:53 AM ×

remember Orval Faubus? the US have always been racist, let's not kid ourselves

and before current idiots only sung about cristal champagne and hos going down in their yachts, there used to be a truly élégiaque form of protest, written by 20th century best

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DXuZBywW4gA

the quality of jazz at the highest of segregation should have been the one reason alone to convince everyone that there is no race but only resolve and opportunity, but it did not (in the US. Europe welcomed American jazzmen with open arms)

shame on you America

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 9, 2014 at 7:20 AM ×

This Chinese 'anything Abe can do, Xi can do better " rally a sweet spot in a EM desert. Contrarians appearing in Europe. Draghi's big bazooka likely to be too little , too late. The ' move along girls. There's nothing to get excited about here ' trade. Start of the reversal from USD ?

Reply
avatar
Rossco
admin
December 9, 2014 at 9:09 AM ×

If %/Y was the silent killer of commodities, then a devaluaing RMB will be the bullet to the head.

Here's looking at you Australia. Lucky you have cheap houses and not much leverage down there...ohh...hang on

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 9, 2014 at 12:26 PM ×

Long term housing cycles (and other types too, for that matter) that are in their late phase are a bit like this superior military doctrine back from WW1. If the attack isn't succeeding, throw in the rest of your reserves to run in a row towards the overlapping zones of machine gun fire:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_wave_attack

Ie. everyone and their dogs screaming that collateral and lending requirements need to be eased and first-time buyers need to be given more state subsidies, as the number of first time buyers has crashed. Happening in an untitled northern European country right now....

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 9, 2014 at 1:13 PM ×

Anon 12:26

Happening in the U.S. right now:

"Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on Monday spelled out the terms under which they will accept mortgages with down payments of as low as 3 percent from first-time buyers, but it may take time to see how many lenders will sign on to the initiative.

The change in policy, broadly announced in October, is designed to entice millennials as well as low- and moderate-income consumers, to take the plunge and become homeowners, a move many aren't taking, either by choice or because of limited financial means. The absence of young, first-time buyers from the market has weighed heavily on the industry's comeback from the housing crisis."

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-fannie-freddie-down-payments-1209-biz-20141208-story.html

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 9, 2014 at 1:34 PM ×

Nico G

Nothing like painting an entire nation with one brush

Louis Armstrong
“Believe it — the White Folks did everything that’s decent for me...”

An estimated 620,000 men, lost their lives in the the Civil War in America.

116,000 in World War 1

405,000 in World War 2

You would have wished America never existed? Where would you be?

Most of my entire family has served in the U.S. military

I have nothing to be ashamed of.


Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 9, 2014 at 1:49 PM ×

RT: NAB changes call on Australian interest rates, sees two cuts of 25 bps in march and august

Q4 bottom-up EPS estimate (aggregate for all companies in Energy sector) has dropped by 20.5% (to $9.49 from $11.94) since September 30.

Shanghai slides 5%

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 9, 2014 at 2:35 PM ×

Shanghai market's losses could've been worse: 66 of the Composite's components fell 10% - limit down. We'll see what happens tomorrow.

Trading volume on the Shanghai Composite just hit $120bn, more than 6x the 2014 average

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 9, 2014 at 3:28 PM ×

Informative how the meme on lower oil went from ‘like a tax cut’ to ‘deflationary’ in the span of a week

Reply
avatar
Polemic
admin
December 9, 2014 at 3:34 PM ×

Just tax oil. kills many birds with one stone.

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 9, 2014 at 3:41 PM ×

Now +160 on 2-10yr ...new 19mo flat . 5-30yr curve now at new 5 1/2yr flat of +124 ...back to March 2009 crisis levels


Russell 2000 index back in red for 2014

Reply
avatar
Leftback
admin
December 9, 2014 at 4:08 PM ×

"Just tax oil."

Exactly. Go British, America!

Q. What goes "ha ha ha, bonk"?
A. A bloke who has been long yen since last week.

Now THAT was a reversal. We were just talking here about what happens when every last dickhead in the market is long all the same things...

Media and sell side wankers on the media still giving it the old "higher rates coming, stronger dollar trade" meme, but once that lot really start squawking about a trade, you know it's almost over.

Reply
avatar
CV
admin
December 9, 2014 at 4:13 PM ×

Ay LB, it seems that the carry monkeys thought they could hide in long USD positions because you know the USD always goes up when other stuff goes down ... oh, what is it we say about "hedges" at this place ;) ...

This market action is mental ..but refreshing ...

Claus

Reply
avatar
Mr. T
admin
December 9, 2014 at 4:25 PM ×

So are we supposed to think that this time is somehow different and the various CB's are going to let this roll over? I'm taking the other side of that bet and buying the dip.

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 9, 2014 at 4:26 PM ×

Well, I thought I could short this market once they passd 18000. I still see 18000 touched and broken by EOY. Now just need to find out the sector that is going to carry Dow for the next 3 weeks.

Reply
avatar
washedup
admin
December 9, 2014 at 4:32 PM ×

the USD could easily go down to 87.50-88 and still be in a very impressive bullish trend - what I find weird still is how long USD continues to mean 'risk - on' - to me, things won't really make sense till the global gong show manifests in a US 10y rally to sub 2 while US equities do something more than a 1.5% tap dance -
have to say some good calls on the crowdedness of the USD trade on this board (LB/Pol)

Reply
avatar
Polemic
admin
December 9, 2014 at 4:46 PM ×

I'm with you mr T but there is further room for this to fall first in run up to christmas. Santa rally complacency being given a shake down.

http://polemics-pains.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/twas-night-before-christmas-markets.html

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 9, 2014 at 4:53 PM ×

@ washedup,

I agree with you/LB/pol. But I just read MS's 2015 outlook on FX. They put a nice chart on long term dollar trend and it seemed that the argument they made on the reversal of long term Dollar bear trend is persuasive from a chartist point of view.

Reply
avatar
Polemic
admin
December 9, 2014 at 4:56 PM ×

washed up,

Love MS's Hans Redeker and Ian Stannard as I do, I really wouldn't be too swayed by their views.

Reply
avatar
Leftback
admin
December 9, 2014 at 5:02 PM ×

Yes, it was quiet. Too quiet.

This is nothing much today, not really. A quick shake down here, and then as Polemic's poem suggests, CBs will ride to the rescue to ensure Santa's safe arrival, and cheer up all those retail punters whose hard earned cash has to be slurped into equity MuFus in Jan. A few days of this and Dame Janet will be saying A Considerable Period for a considerable period.

After the New Year's fund flows, though, this market is going to be a COMPLETELY different story. Our friend is quite right when he points out that USD being RISK-ON is really very odd indeed, and MM had made that point in The Impossible Trinity (equities, bonds, USD). That's a dynamic that will have to resolve at some point, but first there are going to be a fair amount of (long SPY, short JPY) trades to unwind.

Reply
avatar
Leftback
admin
December 9, 2014 at 5:06 PM ×

Greek markets down >10% on the day, not that it matters to most of us these days.

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 9, 2014 at 5:26 PM ×

bingo:

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2014/12/monetary-policy?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/ed/thefedpreparestomakeamistake

Reply
avatar
Mr. T
admin
December 9, 2014 at 6:04 PM ×

ECB head:

“Supply shocks can morph into demand shocks via second-round effects. In these conditions monetary policy needs to react to what initially appeared to be a supply shock, so as to prevent a destabilization of inflation expectations”

“Extending our outright asset purchases towards other asset classes could be one option if we were to judge that the economy was in need of further stimulus”

So I read this as "ECB is going to be buying oil because they don't like the price and see it as disinflationary".

Where to begin with this perverse logic. It's great that these guys have it all figured out.

Reply
avatar
Leftback
admin
December 9, 2014 at 6:25 PM ×

Anon (from the Economist article):

"Rushing to raise rates while inflation is low is the best way to make sure the Fed stays in the zero rate business for years to come. That was the lesson of the 1930s and of the Japanese experience. It has been the lesson of this recovery. The European Central Bank and the Swedish Riksbank have already made this error. So has the Fed, in its way; several times the Fed sought to end asset purchases before the economy was ready, then had to restart purchases to get recovery back on track. Its impatient rushes toward the exits led to more purchases and a bigger balance sheet.

And the worst part is: the risk to waiting to tighten is so comparatively small. That's the worst bit. In a year or two people will find themselves wondering why the Fed made this particular error, and there simply will not be good answers to give."

Readers will be aware that LB thinks that they will in the end NOT raise rates next year. We'll see how it turns out. Got popcorn?

Reply
avatar
Leftback
admin
December 9, 2014 at 6:28 PM ×

@washed:

The DX 5 day chart now has a series of lower lows and lower highs. Might be wrong but I think Bucky's cooked his goose this time.

Reply
avatar
Bruce in Tennessee
admin
December 9, 2014 at 6:44 PM ×

I don't think they will raise next year either, LB...the oil patch I suspect they didn't see coming..

Reply
avatar
CV
admin
December 9, 2014 at 6:49 PM ×

Ah yes, the the US short end is the altar at which we must all make our sacrifices next year. For the record, I think the data will just about bully Yellen into a poke or two, cue inverted yield curve and general nastiness all around. Meanwhile, in Europe and Japan the carry trade flows can keep things going for a while ... remember 2006 when everyone was on the BOJ's back to raise rates ... I think we need to get to a similar point before the "cycle" ends ... as a result this leads me into the uncomfortable position of seeing one last ugly POMO push into the stratosphere ... I am happy to be proved wrong any time, but there ... I have said it.

Claus

Reply
avatar
Mr. T
admin
December 9, 2014 at 7:16 PM ×

If we are prognosticating on 2015 rates, I'm in the "no move" camp for the fed. Once again they will move the goalposts from employment back to inflation, the dataset that will allow them to stay lower for longer. Also the fed composition will be losing at least one "hawk". Inflation expectations are also going to continue dropping, with 2s10s approaching 100bp. Fed ain't gonna let it invert.

So seriously, who comes in for the morning, sees the SPX down 1%+, WEI under lots of pressure, and rushes in to buy biotech? Unreal strength. SHCOMP limit up tomorrow?

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 9, 2014 at 7:53 PM ×

$OIH CDS Idx ↑ 100bps yesterday.Suggests SERIOUS problems for group.

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 9, 2014 at 8:22 PM ×

I would guess that performance chasers are betting on biotech. They must really be desperate.

So, my question to pros here: how soon would these chasers sell their EOY positions after new year?

Reply
avatar
Nico G
admin
December 9, 2014 at 8:26 PM ×

you would be smart the frontrun this idiocy and sell your winners between now and Dec 31st

Reply
avatar
December 9, 2014 at 8:39 PM ×

@mrT: Draghi forgot to tell us that apart gold there was also greece... As i told before the reasoning of ecb goes in the direction to buy oil.... So why not to fix oil price in europe as many emerging mkts do.. It's easier


Guys...theorically agree with a bet on no fed hike BUT my feeling is that USA economy is really strong... So yours is a bet on a dovish fed alone, a weakening economy or both?? In a normal world a better strade could be long 2yrBei... But now???

Reply
avatar
Mr. T
admin
December 9, 2014 at 8:43 PM ×

Nico do you have any real catalysts for your short-equities thesis beyond valuation? If current levels are based on "idiocy" why can't that level get to idiocy^2? I'm not criticizing, I see reasonable arguments for lower and much higher levels as well. Sure seems to me lately though that everything is aligned for much higher prices.

Reply
avatar
December 9, 2014 at 8:54 PM ×

Equity mkts... Well mkts is absolutely realistic with all measurable or easy-to-price assets while continue to reprice wonderfully worlds in without track-record sectors... So until the latest part will be confronted with real world and punished insanity could continue

Reply
avatar
Mr. T
admin
December 9, 2014 at 9:08 PM ×

@TBS - I think it would require incredible (6%+?) amounts of economic growth for the fed to raise based on economic strength alone. Inflation (ex food, energy, and spoos) is very low and appears to be beyond their ability to control. Employment is ebbing and flowing, but never enough to create wage inflation. A raise in rates would create numerous headwinds for further growth, which given their 1937 scenario concern is the last thing they want. Balance sheet size is the new FFR, and if they get all hawkish they might let some bonds roll off in 2015, but thats as far as I'd wager they will go.

Reply
avatar
December 9, 2014 at 9:26 PM ×

Core inflation isn't low and rents are going up... We are at a nairu rate and wages could pick-up... Here's where we disagree... But at the end we alla knows that they'll find an excuse to posticipate

Reply
avatar
December 9, 2014 at 9:53 PM ×

Just read about a 15bln hole in Ukraine...and Schauble asking money to Russia... ahaha they're crazy...
Dear Lagarde...your time is better spent at work than at La Scala...
suddenly a lot of negatives worldwide again... Templeton is deed involved here

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 9, 2014 at 10:23 PM ×

DOUBLELINE CAPITAL'S GUNDLACH SAYS YIELD ON BENCHMARK 10-YEAR TREASURY NOTE COULD FALL TO 1 PERCENT
If oil gets to $40, the 10-year note could get to 1.00% http://bit.ly/1z3xvCw

Reply
avatar
Gus
admin
December 9, 2014 at 11:53 PM ×

Here is Gundlach's 60 slide presentation that was delivered today:

http://www.businessinsider.com/gundlach-webcast-presentation-december-9-2014-12?op=1

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 10, 2014 at 12:07 AM ×

The editor of The Economist, John Micklethwait heading to Bloomberg LP...hope he dumps Tom Keane and his giggling news readers, maybe even do some financial reporting and dump the partisan politics.

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 10, 2014 at 12:12 AM ×

Jeffrey Gundlach “This Time It’s Different” [SLIDES]

http://www.valuewalk.com/2014/12/jeffrey-gundlach-time-different-slides/

Reply
avatar
Nico G
admin
December 10, 2014 at 4:44 AM ×

Mr T.

i just see tons of entrepreneur friends going thru hell in France/Italy/Spain and of course Greece. call it super micro analysis if you will, and of course beta desperados can lift the shitty banks back to moon level, some very astute hedgies are not having a good year so far on such assets it would be tempting to squeeze some valuation at all cost

there can be a great up or a great down volatility has picked up immensely and we have to trade accordingly i hope you make money on the upside i will be punting hard on every correction

Reply
avatar
Nico G
admin
December 10, 2014 at 4:57 AM ×

regarding risks in Europe it is all in here

https://nexus.nordea.com/#/article/16931

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 10, 2014 at 11:04 AM ×

C Says
My sector mean reversion tarde is either still in transition ,or a complete pile of crap...going with the latter I think. Merry xams ,I'm wrapping it for the year from here.

Reply
avatar
amplitudeinthehouse
admin
December 10, 2014 at 12:34 PM ×

Merry Christmas , C...it's been a wonderful year and your input was always a delight to decipher, though the end of year rush for alpha really got messy in the end, but nonetheless, we think the team here manage to escape the year end without any of the Jonahs tentacles latched on to future positions.
Ascot calls out for us next old boy...

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 10, 2014 at 2:36 PM ×

Lombard St: Outstanding intl debt issue by nationality surged to $2.7T, 2x more than 2007 peak. Over 75% is denominated in US $.

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 10, 2014 at 2:39 PM ×

Financial Times
'Greece in the next 6 weeks may prove to be more important for global markets than Russia/Ukraine was in 2014'

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 10, 2014 at 2:42 PM ×

The FT: "In Oct, more than 22 per cent of China’s trade was settled in its own currency...up from almost nothing 2 years ago."

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 10, 2014 at 2:45 PM ×

Iron Ore is down 51% from a year ago . WTI spot is down 37% over same period . Copper is down 12% , Nat gas down 18% .

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 10, 2014 at 3:24 PM ×

JPM: Official sector total exposure to #Greece is around €219bn as of now

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 10, 2014 at 3:29 PM ×

Investors have lost 14% w/ 5yr Greek Bonds that were sold in spectacular auction in April2014.

Reply
avatar