A few things we've learned this week

1) The ECB does not wish to become a sausage factory

2) Russian banks can still access ECB liquidity, but only if they bring a note from their mother, two box-tops from Cheerios, and promise really hard not to use the money to circumvent sanctions

3) Actually, given the Russian counter-sanctions and their devastating impact upon the Norwegian lutefisk industry, scratch the Cheerios requirement

4) ECB rates may stay low til the end of the decade...rumours abound that another Dutch candidate
 will succeed Draghi

5) As one commenter noted, the days of + Sharpe lazy longs in credit are over....roll on the days of 5+ Sharpe lazy longs in Bunds!

6) The 4-week average in initial jobless claims has hit eight-and-a-half year lows.   Based on Macro Man's assessment of the current environment, roughly half of the claimants are macro punters

7) In a change from the last 2,000 years, the Middle East is a disaster

8) Although the top may well be in for credit, we're not quite at the point where it goes down in a straight line
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Anonymous
admin
August 8, 2014 at 3:13 PM ×

C Says
In terms of Russian sanctions. Does this mean it is going to be harder to find a Russian blonde hanging out in your Helsinki hotel ?
If so the Fins are definitely taking one for the team.

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Polemic
admin
August 8, 2014 at 4:15 PM ×

Well C I have had some thoughts on sanctions in that respect..

http://polemics-pains.blogspot.co.uk/2014/07/russian-sanctions-part-ii.html

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Anonymous
admin
August 8, 2014 at 7:00 PM ×

Here comes the buying-spooz part of 'shock and awe - 2014' - all part of a successful military campaign in an era where the market is used as a barometer of policy soundness.

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Leftback
admin
August 8, 2014 at 9:10 PM ×

Today's bounce was overdue. As Zebedee used to say at the end of Magic Roundabout:

"BOING"

Boing

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Anonymous
admin
August 9, 2014 at 4:51 AM ×

Had CDS on Banco Espirito Santo? You won't get paid.

http://dc.isda.org/documents/2014/08/emea-dc-decision-08082014-bes-succession-event-final.pdf

Yes, we sold the protection but we have multiple ways of getting around paying you. We get away with this all the time. Screw you.

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Anonymous
admin
August 9, 2014 at 4:57 AM ×

"Hungary’s central bank has bought an 18th century palatial residence for its employees to use as a rural refuge, it said Thursday."

http://blogs.wsj.com/emergingeurope/2014/08/07/hungarys-central-bank-buys-rural-palace-for-employee-holiday-resort/

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Anonymous
admin
August 9, 2014 at 1:12 PM ×

Anon 4:51AM

Argie's CLN are triggered (80%hc) and BES Sub CDS's are not

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August 10, 2014 at 2:37 AM ×

If there is one thing we have learnt from ISDA it is that the dealers always win.

Far better to short cash bonds - African Bank comes to mind.

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amplitudeinthehouse
admin
August 10, 2014 at 7:39 AM ×

DON'T BRING IT BACK, WHATEVER YOU DO

www.oxforddictionaries.com/

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amplitudeinthehouse
admin
August 10, 2014 at 11:56 AM ×

Macro Man, before I resume my studies just one last post, don't worry about who's going to take photographer of the year in Macro Mans EOY list of awards for unique performances of human achievements.
That's a bird!

Winner?


Douchebag!

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Polemic
admin
August 10, 2014 at 12:04 PM ×

Middle East a disaster, Cold War is back and Ebola on the rise... It's just soooo 1970s. All we need now is inflation and flares.

Have to ask .. Whats the difference between Tony Blaire as Mid East envoy and a banker?... Blaire gets to keep his job and pay after leaving the place in ruins.

Seriously, why is that guy getting away with such bullshit and lack of performance when anyone employed in finance would have been strung up from a lamp post.

Just pray he isn't moved to envoy to Ukraine and Russia and if he is get yourself a nuke shelter.

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Anonymous
admin
August 10, 2014 at 10:54 PM ×

Junk Bonds go no-bid:

http://wolfstreet.com/2014/08/09/reader-speaks-up-i-tried-to-sell-my-junk-bond/

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Anonymous
admin
August 11, 2014 at 9:16 AM ×

C says
POL,
ON the subject of 'flares'. I still wear my denim flares although they only go out in certain weather not unlike the Jenson Int'.
I was thinking of growing a Mexican style drooping moustache to go with them ,but I have always thought it bad taste when someone wears more hair on their top lip than they do on their pate.
As to Blair ,please do not get me started on my favourite party boor subject. What other man in modern politics has made empty rhetoric go so far in achieving so much for self and so little for others? The man is a blight upon the face of the earth.

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Anonymous
admin
August 11, 2014 at 9:19 AM ×

C Says
LOL , I cannot even spell Jenson correctly anymore than I knew how to look after it. Bottomless pit for the chequebook, but at least one had to drive it not like cars these days that almost seem to drive themselves.

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Polemic
admin
August 11, 2014 at 9:46 AM ×

If you own a Jensen Interceptor then your life must be pretty complete.

My apologies for spelling wanker wrong too. In fit of peak I added an e to the Blair. He reminds me of Salmond. Both peddling selfrighteousness and delusional belief ahead of the bleeding obvious.

Agree with the facial hair. Movember is testiment to your points.

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Anonymous
admin
August 11, 2014 at 10:26 AM ×

C says
Pol,
I've owned two Jensen's over the years. The second came after I had forgotten how expensive the first had been :)
I now own a bike. Pedal bike. I'm not sure what the moral is there ,but there must surely be one.

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abee crombie
admin
August 11, 2014 at 2:10 PM ×

Stan the Man spoke today. Sees labour markets still as cyclical not structural which would have been a major shift in tone.

This is a major question with unemployment at 6.2%. If US keeps adding 200K jobs, and the participation rate stays unchanged, we get low 4s unemployment next year. But even a slight rise in participation can keep the unemployment rate steady and thus give Fed more time

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Anonymous
admin
August 11, 2014 at 7:02 PM ×

"Economists surveyed by Reuters and The Wall Street Journal expect Japan's gross domestic product (GDP) shrunk an annualized 7.1% in the second quarter of this year. However, officials in the government and central bank, as well as many private economists, are quite relaxed about the figure as they say a steep drop was to be expected after the economy expanded 6.7% in the first quarter on an annualised basis. The government will report the figure Wednesday morning Japan time"

Heh, no problem. We got it covered.

https://www.asia-first.com/newsletter/survey-shows-japans-gdp-shrunk-in-q2.html

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Leftback
admin
August 11, 2014 at 7:36 PM ×

Yes, QE working its magic all over the world..... but that data point can't possibly make JPY rally, so for carry trades, who cares?

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Polemic
admin
August 11, 2014 at 8:24 PM ×

Jpy is bi-modal tho. Really really good news and it rallies, really really bad news and it rallies as money comes home ( see Tsunami). Moderate run of the mill not good or not bad and it weakens as foreigners play with it rather than locals and the politicians promise more undeliverables.

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August 16, 2014 at 4:53 AM ×

Find home based jobs of link building, facebook marketing, add marketing, add clicking and much more jobs.
www.jobzcorner.com

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