Gone Skiing





So there will probably be no posts for a week.

Anyone want to guess where SPX, UST10yr, USD/TRY, AUDJPY, Gold, Nikkei and  (just for fun) Spitcoin Bitcoin will be when we get back 24th Feb?
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Anonymous
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February 13, 2014 at 6:52 PM ×

Easy. Wherever Janet wants them to be.

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Leftback
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February 13, 2014 at 7:13 PM ×

DO try not to break anything, double-0-7...

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CV
admin
February 13, 2014 at 9:19 PM ×

+1 LB, try to come back with both kneecaps ... we would not be liable to accept a hiatus on account of slips on the slope ;).

SPX - 1790
US 10y - 2.5
Gold - 1315

No real view on the others. Bitcoin will be $10 million probably or $3, whichever comes first.

Have a great trip!

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Polemic
admin
February 13, 2014 at 10:10 PM ×

LB ...classic. but triggered a debate as to whether it was Q or M who most regularly said that.. thanks guys

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Leftback
admin
February 14, 2014 at 6:03 PM ×

Definitely Q, while explaining the latest exploding gadget to a slightly distracted Bond, who is busy eyeing up Q's lab totty.

But in this case it might be MM himself, in view of his skiing history.

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Leftback
admin
February 14, 2014 at 6:38 PM ×

TMM, the SPX 1740 level was a good buy for sharp traders. but after two days of low volume drift we now think that the buying of US equities is once again being led by tiny punter Mr Richard Head.

Spoos have dissociated from the downward drift of the Carry Monkey (USDJPY), and small caps (IWM) are flat and lagging after a woeful IP report this morning.

3-day Prez Day w/e dead ahead, but global markets are open on Monday, and the Monkey is taking a gander down towards 100, so we are starting to really fancy some cheap protection. "Something for the weekend, Sir?". "Don't mind if I do, Squire". "Watch out for those falling Eeyems, Guv". "Not half, me old china".

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Hotairmail
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February 14, 2014 at 7:15 PM ×

Can you really afford a holiday at a time like this? Think of the money you won't be making!

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theta
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February 16, 2014 at 10:44 PM ×

Regarding predictions for weekly moves: Everything unchanged. I hope you sold some weekly options before you left. Enjoy.

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Leftback
admin
February 17, 2014 at 8:00 PM ×

I like theta's bet for the end of the week, but not without a tiny bit of vol perhaps just for a couple of days? Vol sellers don't win every single trading day but they usually win in the end.

FX carry and spoos slightly out of alignment again the last few days, some mild selling of equities would bring them back into balance.

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amplitudeinthehouse
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February 18, 2014 at 1:34 AM ×

Perusing the charts this morning has put myself into another phase of thinking. When it comes to the fundamentals , something that I haven't really spoke of due to my bias of thought that the market is in a stage of Yennish . So why bother reading inbetween the lines of Alphaville and Zerohedge. Why bother?...but now I have the feeling that a transition is developing within the dichotomy of Good News is great and Bad News is greater. It's a good thing that I enrolled back into school late last year after realizing I was in a market that just wasn't for me..yep, what could a Yennish Market possibly ever teach me!

HERE'S TO EDUCATION

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Anonymous
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February 18, 2014 at 10:41 AM ×

C Says
Same old,same old. The one thing I do see recurring in this period that we have seen before prior to future weakness is that [rice has recovered without the breadth to support it. In other words the price gains are more concentrated/thinner than before.
The above is the US equity market ,I struggle to find the same info in other markets. However, in essence I'm happy to be building a short position in the UK equity at these levels until I have reason not to.

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Anonymous
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February 18, 2014 at 10:44 AM ×

C says,
That isn't short for 5 or 10% either. It's a play for a full correction on this one.

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Nico G
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February 18, 2014 at 4:43 PM ×

+1

can them lazy arses come back from the slopes already so markets resume the jiggling?

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ltl
admin
February 19, 2014 at 7:47 AM ×

its mildly interesting to this punter that $/Y has mostly given back all its gains from yesterdays announcement and the forward calendar of Abe newsflashes will likely be quite light for a while

do equities need to come back a bit to be back in lockstep ? i think so

and if we see $/Y back thru 101 ....

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Anonymous
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February 19, 2014 at 1:50 PM ×

As your favorite topic LB has reared its clever head again.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/january-housing-starts-dive-16-to-880000-rate-2014-02-19-891306

As one commentor has already pointed out, the NE has been hit the worst this year, yet starts are up something like 16%. However weather is the culprit for the decline, according to these magicians.

I live in the Northeast. I cannot help but notice what must be an old real estate trick. I am not familiar with the market or its practises myself. However, I have been looking at Listings vs. Sales of homes in my area. If the home doesn't sell within 1 month of being listed, in a lot of cases its delisted from the MLS, but the for sale sign is left up. I thought for some time, maybe the sale is pending, or it has been sold, but for months now quite a few of them that I have tracked still say "For Sale". When I take a look at the MLS for the area, one would swear that there isn't much to choose from at all, which to me leads to a perception here, that not only are these ridiculous prices justified, but everything desirable on the market is being eaten up by hungry buyers.

Of course this is just an observer's perspective and I may be very wrong.

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Anonymous
admin
February 19, 2014 at 9:25 PM ×

As has probably been discussed before I feel necessary to ask:

are the Feds hands tied in that they just absolutely need to keep up the bond buying program, or else interest rates are chronically trying to drift upwards without any action? Is the debt base now so large that exterior forces (eg. China and other foreigns) don't have the muscle to keep rolling new TSY's (even if they wanted to)?

If so, could that condition be considered as a some kind of an "end game"? Interest rates up -> game over for housing and other markets that depend on borrowing. I guess 2014 is the year we see what really happens, as we watch the Tapir grow towards full maturity.

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Nico G
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February 20, 2014 at 10:49 AM ×

excuse my French but that whatsapp deal i mean, fucking really?

i know most of today's techies are incredibly young but hell... it really smells like February 2000 again

FB shares must be worse than bit coins if they are being used like this - does anyone else equipped from memory feel uneasy here?

i hope so, the market is riped for a very hard tank now you see all that PE IPOs lined up? those pigs might now cash in on time

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Anonymous
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February 20, 2014 at 4:11 PM ×

I'll admit I had to look up wtf 'whatsapp' even was.

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Anonymous
admin
February 20, 2014 at 5:47 PM ×

Nico, with ~0,5 bn users paying 1$ a year for a superiour service to what the telecoms today charge 10-100x that for... I think its not that difficult to see where the future lies. But if you want to be negative on something, go after the telecoms, they have no future at all in this world other than as a partly government regulated utility company. They will lose top line year after year and this deal just confirms who owns the future - the content providers.

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Anonymous
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February 20, 2014 at 8:58 PM ×

C says
I thought this chap had a reasonable view on the issue.

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Anonymous
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February 20, 2014 at 9:00 PM ×

Apologies...the linhttp://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.co.uk/2014/02/facebook-buys-whatsapp-for-19-billion.htmlk

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Nico G
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February 20, 2014 at 9:06 PM ×

don't get me wrong - i am just old fashioned - value/market caps that took 4 generations to create are now made in 5 years

i still think FB value is overhyped so yeah, they might as well swap their overhyped stocks with whateva they find cool

buy IPOs, close you eyes, et voila

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Mike
admin
February 21, 2014 at 2:18 PM ×

Agreed Nico. I love how the talking heads scrambled to explain this one as a brilliant move on Zuker part. Yes, Whatsupp is a great app, sure they got .5B subscribers, and yes the future is in mobile. But, the service is free and us such no one knows what the numbers will be when it's converted to $$$. Will the .5B stay or go to another free app that shows up in the future. But somehow the valuations are all legit and 15B in cash and stock is a great deal for a pipe dream. Try to short it and you'll get a msg. on your mobile via Whatsupp that your account got closed. The whole thing does smell like the heydays of Nasdaq, be it storage, fiber or any other high flying sector back then. It did take a while for the bubble to pop though, and to me the risk appetite is there and this will go for a long time or at least as long as VC 50 M investments return Billions in a year or two.

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Anonymous
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February 21, 2014 at 3:39 PM ×

Wassup is not free. They charge 99c per year. If we assume 0.5bn users this means a whopping 38x revenue being paid. Not bad for 55 guys in a garage.

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Saul Bollox
admin
February 24, 2014 at 8:26 PM ×

Piers Morgan going off the air on CNN. All kinds of explanations here about his opposition to gun control, involvement in phone hacking and other theories:

Piers Morgan Schadenfreude

But that's not it, is it? The real reason is that Piers is a complete c**t. Innit.

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Anonymous
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February 26, 2014 at 8:27 AM ×

C Says
Bitcoin is fascinating to anyone interested in human behaviour . It is right up there with the issue of weight loss if you only take the latest untested capsule.

I read ,"I Have $285,000 Stuck On Mt. Gox". Now there is nothing wrong with that per se as long as the individual in question has $285,000,000 lodged somewhere else. Of course that will not be the case and theirin lies the perennial problem.

Fascinating stuff though thank the Lord that saves me from such worrisome levels of conviction.

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Anonymous
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February 26, 2014 at 7:45 PM ×

not mine but I think this sums up February very nicely:

2wks of ATHs in indices w/ small-cap outeperformace while interest rates firm-up and VIX refuses to bear flatten qualifies as "fuckedupness"

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amplitudeinthehouse
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February 27, 2014 at 12:08 PM ×

Perusing some of these charts had be thinking, there really does seem to be a "Breaking Bad" tattoo stamp superimposed on enough single name charts to say that maybe Ben did get the show after all.
It wasn't just about his ego in the realm of Professionalism..noooooooo
It was about your desire for something that eventually evolves into a necessity (market higher) can condition you to think your acting morally for the greater good and be damn with moral hazard. No can escape the reality that people will get hurt.
Breaking Bad..Guesser!

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Anonymous
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February 28, 2014 at 3:31 PM ×

How can I miss the USDCNY bloodbath? What next to come?

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Anonymous
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February 28, 2014 at 3:32 PM ×

How can I miss the USDCNY bloodbath? What next to come?

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Leftback
admin
February 28, 2014 at 6:25 PM ×

Mianus was frozen over again today, TMM. Byram, an' all....

Bucky really fell out of bed with a thud after that GDP "shocker". Now what's happened to that "strong US recovery, strong USD, rising rates" meme?

This might even signal a halt to the floggings in the humble shantytown of Eeyems....

Meanwhile the movements of spoos have become the strangest of circus tricks, like watching the guy on the unicycle on a high wire over Niagara Falls. It's fun to watch but you really wouldn't want a piece of that action...

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