Team Macro Man reads the newspaper (again)

Wednesday, June 13, 2012

With apologies to Professor John Allen Paulos's lovely "A Mathematician reads the newspaper" , which TMM think is compulsory reading for all Daily Mail readers, we have been watching headlines glide past and as is usual with these short sound-bites have been guessing what they might really mean. We let you choose.

TSIPRAS SAYS EU WON'T CUT GREEK FUNDS OR EJECT GREECE FROM EURO

a) Oooh, that's nice! Now why didn't we realise it's that easy.
b) Ok, so he has some compromising photos of Mangler and Weidmann enjoying some form of Greek hospitality?
c) Tsipras? Is that the one with the cucumber and mint? Or the chick pea one?
d) Tsipras is a financial Assad - smooth suit, looks sane but is a financial psycho-nutter

DJN-DJ BUNDESBANK STEPS UP INTEREST IN AUS$ ASSETS - SOURCE

a) Well not a great surprise and typical of any institution wanting to diversify risk and pick up some yield
b) Next headline to be DJN-DJ GERMANY ACCEPTS AUD AS PAYMENT FOR ALL GOODS AND SERVICES WITHIN GERMAN BORDERS
c) b) To be followed by DJN-DJ GERMANY SAYS "YOU CAN ALSO PAY OF COURSE WITH THAT EURO THING IF YOU REALLY WANT, BUT DON'T EXPECT ANY CHANGE. YOU SURE YOU HAVE NO AUSSIE DOLLARS ON YOU?"
d) Forget it, no matter what the BUBA do AUD is still toast.

GERMAN 10-YEAR BUNDS STAY LOWER; YIELDS 9 BPS HIGHER AT 1.51%

a) The "get me out of all Europe", including the bund, trade?
b) The "Oh Germany are being sucked in to bail out others so therefore the Bund is not going to be as pure as the driven snow due to possible dilution effects - Sell" trade?
c) A general unwind of the periphery spread trade, or a start of it?
d) Bill Gross talking down bunds, as he looks for an opportunity to scoop them up on the cheap
e) A knock on effect from the Scandies imposing a moratorium so they don't need to buy cart loads of bunds at zip% just to keep the regulator happy, as Euro-refugees led by the SNB drive yields through the floor

SNB - Well there are constant comments about their EURCHF floor

a) SNB have become the Voldermort (see Glossary) of Europe
b) Europe will beg SNB to buy periphery debt
c) Scandinavians will beg the SNB NOT to buy their debt
d) US will accuse the Swiss of currency manipulation and impose sanctions

UKIP leader Nigel Farage's gives his speech in the European Parliament.

a) Hmm, a well balanced argument, even if I pretend he is a joke for intellectual reasons
b) He is the Messiah of Europe! Why do those corpulent Euro-morons around him mock?
c) Phnarf... Zis little man knows nothing about our master plan as he is not part of it, one day he will see the error of his ways
d) What? What do you mean we have no master plan?

From the sports pages - A lovely line doing the rounds in the City today -
GREECE: UNCONFIRMED reports that after losing to Czech Rep yesterday, Greece have applied to borrow 3 points from UEFA.

And finally we had another headline asking us to help out the Roche company "Children's Walk". Whilst it is a good cause, we really think that someone in Roche's corporate communications department might have pointed out that the picture on their page is just plain WRONG! http://www.roche.com/corporate_responsibility/society/community/childrenswalk.htm [16th june update - we see that thanks to one of our readers tweeting this to Roche, they have actually changed the picture used!]

TMM are away travelling for the rest of the week so unfortunately will not be back til post Tsiprageddon.

Posted by Polemic at 4:04 PM  

16 comments:

C says'
"TSIPRAS"
(e) he really really is Wolfie Smith wiv a soot.

Anonymous said...
4:33 PM  

LOL. Chortle. Snort.
Look at the size of my watering can, Mum...!

Leftback said...
4:38 PM  

Greece.
May Have to Czech Out.

Anonymous said...
4:40 PM  

None of the PIIGS have won a game, as yet. Teutonic and Slavic austerity dominant.

Of course that can change...

Leftback said...
5:11 PM  

Not fancying the market today.

Thursdays featuring long bond auctions tend to be negative, and this one comes ahead of the Greek erections. So we reckon that safety trades will be on tomorrow and then if the Friday Fear sets in, it may really be time to FYB.

Anonymous said...
5:14 PM  

Lol. What on earth is that under his skirt?

Hotairmail said...
11:22 PM  

#habbo hotel

Anonymous said...
11:52 PM  

More downgrades. Perfect excuse for another dump of equities tomorrow....

Tin foil hat wearers eagerly awaiting 7% yields again. Might happen...

Leftback said...
3:42 AM  

Twas that the quiet rustle of the leaves blowin in the wind, or was it whispers of QA Quardinated Action?

Corey said...
10:57 PM  

c SAYS,
If not actual "QA" a la BOE/UK then at the very least a bombardment of global central bank 'rumours' of same.The name of the game is confidence and reassurance .but whether at this point anyone listens who knows.
Weekend rate cut from China ?

Anonymous said...
8:48 AM  

Still short the Dow, though, hedged to the gills leading into this weekend.This may seem like a case of jumping on a horse after it has already bolted , but to the eye, the cable has that smooth look about it on its latest journey south, now amps has been wrong before (no kidding)and he recognizes that were in a yennish environment which historically has been bearish for the bucky.

Therefore, he must make a decision on the basis of nothing more than a educated guess, and that is, he'll wait to after BB meeting next week to chase after the cable in BIG STYLE!

Disclosure: this report was garnered with nothing more than gut instinct, any responsibility shall be deflected from amps suit amour which has been knocked in like an openers gray nichols cricket bat ,as its cable or nothing!

Amplitudeinthehouse said...
2:04 PM  

Shorting the Dow here with the promise of unlimited liquidity from the G20 (in response to a sub optimal political outcome this weekend) seems like quite a high risk low reward trade to me.

Anonymous said...
2:18 PM  

Ugh. Lots of people long, on the expectation of a "bad" Greek election outcome, leading to massive co-ordinated liquidity fire-hoses. Lots of people short, on the expectation of a "bad" election outcome leading to TEOTWAWKI.

So how do I trade the "other" outcome? I do have some Greek equities. Short Treasuries might be a clever trade, but I don't think I am going there. Too many clever traders get their d***s chopped off.

Changing topic, Swedes are all very confident and their strikers are dangerous, Larsson hits a great free kick, but I see Olof Mellberg in their back four and I reckon, a bit of old fashioned Route 1 football, a nod on from Carroll and Wellbeck, Gerrard and Young have Olof on toast for pace. Play to your strengths, England...

Leftback said...
3:31 PM  

my bet, on monday S&P does not move more than 1% by the close

abee crombie said...
8:38 PM  

Remarkable that, despite now years of evidence to the contrary, the naive analysis maintains its death grip. No matter wich wot 'oo wins on Sunday (Greek elections, not football) says they are going to do, the odds are that they will not do that.

When everybody makes it back to their assigned posts - long banks/ short real economy.

As for the football tournament that Greece won without actually scoring any goals - have yet to see a team whose strengths can be counted on to overcome their weaknesses in the crunch.

Charles Butler said...
6:36 PM  
Aethel Hard said...
7:29 AM  

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