Wednesday, June 06, 2012

Holiday wishes

What a week to have booked as holiday all those months ago when tagging 3 days on the end of double bank holidays looked so easy. Having tamed the TMM positions and taken them off to the kennels for a week we are determined not to have the UK jubilee week upset by thinking about the markets. So despite all the ECB noise (ok we had a peek through the curtains) and despite the British summer monsoon TMM are doing their best to enjoy their week off and will not be roused from their traditional UK holiday.

With that we return to our rain covered window gazing, jigsaw puzzles, novels, sudoku's, magazines, old dvds, takeaway fish and chips and NO research.

Back on Monday... maybe.


Leftback said...

Rain, jigsaw puzzles, fish and chips, the very best kind, in wet newspaper with the ink running and smelling of vinegar and oil?

This can only mean one thing. TMM are on their summer holidays in England, possibly at Clacton-on-Sea or Weston-super-mare.

This means a two day vacuum in Macro blogging. Nature abhors a vacuum, so perhaps TMM's New York correspondent will attempt to fill the void, or at least to reflect the results of tomorrow's Spanish debt auction and associated amusements.

Have a good one, lads.

Anonymous said...

Remember - Work is for wimps

Polemic said...

anon. Couldn't t agree more.. The US I.B. Indoctrination of the opposite is almost criminal to the point of slavery.

LB .. Go for it.. Keep it clean ..both the language and the punch ups!


abee crombie said...

well I guess no news out of the ECB is good news.

Enjoy the vay-kay

Leftback said...

What A Difference A Day Makes....

Here are your macro headlines.

- Spain Sells Debt, 10y Rates Closer to 6% than 7%.
- The Swerve Stands Pat.
- Voldemort Cuts Rates By 25 bps.
- US Declines To Label Voldy A Currency Manipulator

LB has been doing little but watching the gyrations of the markets with some amusement. After all, it is raining at Edgbaston, and the footy doesn't kick off until Friday. Yesterday's big rally started in Europe with the anticipation of a ECB rate cut, which then failed to materialize. This tempted Mr Shorty back into the fray, only to be unceremoniously rear-ended by a second wave of buyers paying closer attention to the tea leaves in the wake of Draghi's comments. A late attempt to re-establish short positions in the US was also met with a little spike at the end of the day that is quite familiar to all of us who have been on the receiving end....

Nevertheless, eager Shorties were at it again this morning trying to fade the early move upwards in European markets following what has to be considered a successful auction of Spanish debt. With the Swerve passing up the opportunity to stoke Mervynflation, and deciding not to intervene, Mr Shorty was eager to press his advantage, when all of a sudden, out of nowhere, Voldemort dropped a 25 basis point rate cut !!! We have to admit that we were rolling around laughing at this point and almost choked on our toast as Spoos shot up about 10 handles in 20 nanoseconds, and Mr Shorty made yet another unscheduled visit to the proctologist.

Eventually we feel that Mr Shorty will tire of these internal examinations, and may retreat for a few weeks. What we may well see in the immediate future is a SMUDEFT market. (Slow Melt Up During European Football Tournament). Not that we can't have a jolly good panic one day b/c SYRIZA ("the commies") are leading the opinion polls and this means a brief outbreak of TEOTWAWKI. But you can basically expect that will dominate markets only when one of the less widely anticipated matches is on, like Fredonia v Vatican City, for example, or you know, anyone against Greece.

A few days ago, the P/L of European equity longs did indeed resemble the deck of a Japanese whaler, but by yesterday afternoon, things had already improved to match the contents of a bottle of Provence rosé, and as of this morning, a few patches of Kelly green have appeared across the screens....

The Bernank wil grace the screens later. He will wave at extending Operation Twist, announce no immediate QE3 but hold out the potential for using it should the US economy weaken further. After all, there is no need for any intervention on rates here, as the panic birds who bought Treasuries at ridiculously low yields last week have already obliged the Chairman in this respect. The same logic also applies to The Swerve's non-decision today.

Great weather here and we fancy a round of golf. Nobody out there likes this rally, which probably ensures that it will run on quietly for a few days or even weeks.

...and with that, LB wishes all a delightful day.

Anonymous said...

have to say, LB filled up quite nicely in TMM absence

Anonymous said...

C says'
Given the expression "tailrisk" is in vogue what about same being that rover came woof and no meat was produced? Well ok, a very small bowl of noodles if you want to be picky about it.

At this point I've seen nothing of note that I wasn't expecting to see this month. Big May crunch going oversold followed by banking profits as central bank meetings approach..blah blah. Late shorties bleed a bit etc etc. So now we have tighter range of activity to whippy over going into Quad options expiry. All about as exciting as a wet weekend in Whitby.Just another good reason to sit and enjoy summer and let the HFT's kick the shit out of each other.

Anonymous said...

Crude, gold both highly equity correlated and seem to be melting DOWN post China, Beard. Ruh-roh!

Anonymous said...

Last months consumer credit number got revised down to $12.4 billion from $21.4 billion. And we make fun of China's counting methods...

Leftback said...

Bit of a non-event today, as we suspected. The Bernank was never going to say "I live solely to degrade the US dollar at every waking moment", was he? Not in front of all the Republicans anyway.... it was actually quite interesting that the market didn't plummet on the revelation that the Wizard's hat was completely devoid of rabbits today...

We continue to be interested in the health of only one trade, the Compressor. Long dodgy peripheral debt / short Schatz/bunds. As yields go, so will go all other measures of risk. Cheers!

Amplitudeinthehouse said...

Worthy NY correspondent, PBOC move today after a decent climb yesterday shouldn't have been expected to lift the roof off the stadium but, Golds movement today was telling....the status quo won't cut it!.This is from a technical perspective.( or should I say Pavlov perspective)

Anonymous said...

C says'
End of week Asian 'tell'. Pavlovian Noodles versus weekend Chinese data equals run for cover is not a fundamentally investor driven market.If they really had conviction they could hold into the weekend.My money is on the usual short term action news/rumour driven mom programs etc.They'll just go with flow of same which means Usain Bolt's fast twitch muscles are a must have.
Personally I can do without the adrenaline when my performance in those markets is flat at best
and at worst fish food .

I think I have the solution for Spain.Pledge it's football team has collateral with the ECB ! I know they are strictly speaking a wasting asset ,but i think the writedown potential should be less than Spanish property.

I don't follow football at all so can anyone tell me does the draw offer any likelihood of a Spain v Germany Final? So symbolic don't you think.

Anonymous said...

ha, Spain v. Germany is my projected final in my pool. Probably the most common one too.

Leftback said...

Predictable pullback underway. A retrace to near term support levels at the 200 DMA or to SPX 1300 seems almost a foregone conclusion. We are happy to sit tight for the time being. The powerful move up from the recent lows, and the somewhat anemic pullback today suggests the balance of power has shifted away from the bears for the time being.

The latest drop in yields might be the last exit rally from 10y Treasuries and bunds....

Enjoy the footy!

Leftback said...

Those fond of game theory will have noted that an IMF report on Spanish banks is out Monday. Do you:

1) Assume that this is a rubber stamp job and buy?
2) Sell Spanish banks and place tin foil hat on head?

Given the interaction between fundamentals and technicals, we would favor 1) here, as the present price action is begging shorts to re-enter, only to find that many of the Spanish banks are deemed to be solvent on Monday.

We would suggest, however, that any screaming rally in Spanish banks should probably be sold. A likely outcome of any recapitalization that may occur would be that the Spanish banks are then going to be encouraged to issue equity or debt, thus diluting current equity holders. This was the US bank playbook and we expect it to be followed.

LB's approach has been to use SAN as a trading vehicle while holding other Spanish equities for eventual stabilization, recovery and dividend yield.

Leftback said...

Another in LB's occasional and by now highly prestigious awards, Knob Of The Day, here is a chap called Vincent Cignarella, talking in the middle of this week about "will the euro zone collapse on Thursday?".

Thursday, gentle reader, was the day of the Spanish bond auction this week. As you will recall it was a complete and utter.... yawn, as market participants (OK, zombie banks) gobbled up the goodies at just north of 6.0%. The World Did Not End.

Anyway, here is Vinnie, who we can only assume was recruited for an interview when he and the interviewer were hangin out "Down The Shore". Tell us all about doze guyz in Yoorp, Vinnie....

Vinnie Predicts Collapse of the Euro Zone Last Thursday

What is remarkable about this interview is not only how hyperbolic, ridiculous and ill-informed this gentleman seems after the fact, but really all of these statements were quite wrong at the time. Furthermore, his comments about Draghi, Greenspan and Bernanke are quite laughable. Greenspan, hawkish? Pshaw...

When will the media learn that big blokes with loud voices are not necessarily experts on complicated stuff that require a bit of, you know, intelligence?

Anonymous said...

C says'
Nice kneejerk stuff from the equity moms and now we actually wait to see exactly what the terms and conditions are going to result in recapitalising Spanish banks. Bondholders throughout Europe wait anxiously for that one.If bail out equals bailed in for them then kneejerk meet wall.

Amplitudeinthehouse said...

Closed out EU\DAX , should've shorted the DAX straight out, oh well.Let's see what happens around the GRE election...this may be the reason for such a dim response to the ESP bailout, can't say I blame them.Amps ADHD medication kicked in yesterday , in style , and is now focused on his one and ONLY(!)favorite currency , stay tuned!

Leftback said...

Whack A Mole economics continues as Italian yields over 6% today....

The Dutch
Out of Touch
Weren't Much
As Such

The Danes
In The Rain
Are a Pain
and A Bane

Anonymous said...

Another glorious nonsense day at Bedlam Home for wayward programs.

Back when music was really music today was lyrically done like this;

I'm gonna tell you how it's gonna be
You're gonna give your dosh to me
I'm gonna screw you night and day
Well dosh is mom and will fade away
Well dosh is mom and will fade away

My dosh bigger than a Cadillac
I try to show it and you're screwed right back
Your dosh for me has got to be real
For you to know just how I feel
Dosh is real but will fade away
Well dosh is real and will fade away

I'm gonna tell you how it's gonna be
You're gonna give your dosh to me
Dosh to last more than one day
Well dosh is mom and will fade away
Well dosh is mom and will fade away
Well dosh is mom and will fade away
Dosh, dosh is mom and will fade away
Will fade away
Will fade away

With apologies to Buddy H

Leftback said...

England with a typically dreary and defensive minded performance in the opening game. France made few chances. Both teams still alive!

A bit like the EU bailout of Spain. Not a roaring success on the first day, but it's a long tournament. I mean, week of trading...

Anonymous said...

Yes a long week to, melt 'up', of course.

Dee Dee Humberside said...

From C's Buddy Holly to the Beatles, paying respect to our resident Scouser LB ...

You never give me your money
You only give me your funny paper
and in the middle of negotiations
you break down

We cheated on my growth numbers
We gave you a fake situation
and in the middle of recession
We broke down

Out of EU, euros spent
See no future, pay no debt
All the money's gone, no more Euros
Any jobber got the sack
Monday morning, turning back
Yellow lorry slow, no more Euros
But oh, that magic feeling, no more Euros
Oh, that magic feeling
No more Euros
No more Euros

Tomorrow we explore the rest of the so call Abbey Road b side, with such great titles as

Infla-Sun King
Mean Mrs Mangler
She Came in Through the Fed Window
Carry that Interest
and of course, The End