Wednesday, January 25, 2012
But first the markets - Someone threw an Apple into the works last night that delayed our expected roll over, but it looks as though it is underway and having had that failed test higher we are more confident of our call. As for Apple (So THAT's where all the QE ended up) TMM are still amazed at the awe within which its results are held. Imagine the outcry if that was a bank, BP or your local utility company - Vince Cable and his baying mob would explode in a cloud of hyperbole.
But as nothing else has changed. We are still pretty bored but will fill in with some more non-predictions for 2012 . Here are the random ones
Ed Miliband will NOT be leader of the UK Labour party by the end of the year. A rollover bet. the theme of him being pretty useless has not changed but Blair's changes to leader selection during his term has made it pretty hard to push incumbents but we think the pressure will increase for him to go.. Interestingly it was the BBC and Guardian who were the ones earlier this week shouting most about the increasing Tory lead. TMM might be over suspicious but perhaps they are embarking upon a push for change.
And talking of the BBC, they will NOT stop linking any injustice anywhere in the world to UK Government spending cuts and they will NOT stop generalising anyone working in a bank as evil but will manage NOT to generalise all journalists as phone tapping, family destroying, moral bankrupts.
Consultants will NOT find life easy. Shareholder backlash to senior management pay will NOT leave middle management untouched. A crackdown in inefficiency will lead to more focus on the production of the final product and less spent on the luxuries of "corporate awareness" and all the associated "consultants". And as for financial Head Hunters ..
However IT and HR departments will NOT lose any of the control they have over the business lines they are meant to serve. Their cancer is too far progressed to cure.
Obama will NOT lose the US elections. Whilst massive amounts of airtime are being poured into the upcoming US elections TMM really aren't that bothered. OK, if the Republicans get in they will most probably tighten fiscal policy and so growth would be lower but with Romney's tax rate at 15% and Gingrich's general divisiveness we think it very unlikely that either make it the whole way. In general TMM feel that politicians globally are losing their grip as opinion formers and are having to scrabble more and more to catch up with populous opinions forming and swelling through social media rather than main stream press. Whoever gets in as US president will be subject to the same under-pressures and unlikely to be able to drive their own agendas much further than out of the garage.
The Olympics in London will NOT be the disaster many expect yet during them manned flight to Mars will NOT be harder than getting to Canary Wharf. However the Olympic tradition of the host nation losing money on the whole event will NOT be broken.
Greece will NOT stop taking the piss with pricing in tourist restaurants. As shown by their inability to change their macro economy there is little chance of micro Greek economic theory changing.
Kate Middleton, Duchess of Cambridge will NOT announce that she is expecting a baby. Sentiment indices are far too high on this.
The Mayan predicated end of the world will NOT occur in 2012. - TMM are offering believers immediate delivery of ayuverdic tea and Himalayan pink salt lamps against Dec 22nd delivery of all their worldly goods (excepting their tea, lamps, wind chimes, tin foil beanies and Peruvian woolly hats)