tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post1032583675797725998..comments2024-03-29T09:24:42.731+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Non-Predictions for 2012 -RandomMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger32125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-41349210524448205922012-01-30T21:04:10.692+00:002012-01-30T21:04:10.692+00:00US employment will NOT recover rapidly....
SF Fe...US employment will NOT recover rapidly....<br /><br /><a href="http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2012/el2012-03.html" rel="nofollow"> SF Fed on US Employment (Un)Recovery </a>Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-9570652189146425092012-01-30T16:33:33.588+00:002012-01-30T16:33:33.588+00:00On a quiet fri the electronic order book apparentl...On a quiet fri the electronic order book apparently shows 5-10bn bid @ 1.20. Vol too cheap to make sense selling it but can't get too excited about owning calls either as isn't realising at implied and chances of re-peg higher or discussion thereof seem pretty slim imo thus hard to see us back at 1.23-4 region anytime soon. <br /><br />Think if you believe the peg will hold then bidding in the 1.2020-30 region with the intention of jobbing out at 1.21ish the best of an unappetising array.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-82190594187009102012012-01-30T09:30:58.393+00:002012-01-30T09:30:58.393+00:00I still remember a few month a go when Swiss Centr...I still remember a few month a go when Swiss Central Bank said that they will take an unlimited intervence if Euro CHF take 1.2xxx level.Will they prove what they are said lets wait and seeFundamental Loverhttp://tradingwithfundamental.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-7190201554078319002012-01-30T02:24:49.872+00:002012-01-30T02:24:49.872+00:00As EUR/CHF inches closer to the 1.2 level, would b...As EUR/CHF inches closer to the 1.2 level, would be interesting to read<br />if you have thoughts on any possible<br />play.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-178605532160825022012-01-27T16:02:21.831+00:002012-01-27T16:02:21.831+00:00I'll take another Turnaround Tuesday please, A...I'll take another Turnaround Tuesday please, Alex.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-5695151629499122572012-01-27T12:02:39.218+00:002012-01-27T12:02:39.218+00:00Which depositors were on the run again? The fiscal...Which depositors were on the run again? The fiscally - as if - insured ones? How credible was that explicit fiscal put (not that it wasn't "beneficial" to some of the confused and stessed depositors). <br /><br />Or the phantom ones perhaps, used to scare some delusional dysfunctional politicians with?<br /><br />Deposit is but a book entry, evidencing the dumbness of the depositor (in exact quantity and time). <br /><br />His un-innovation, so to speak. <br /><br />In ways that far exceed socio-economic aspects of this epistemically confused mystery.<br /><br />:)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-36889335226943506672012-01-26T21:36:14.384+00:002012-01-26T21:36:14.384+00:00Anon 6.07... whether or not I would have left thos...Anon 6.07... whether or not I would have left those guys fail as a citizen and taxpayer is irrelevant. You are mistakenly taking my viewpoint as saying it was not the right thing to do... I am just saying that the fact that it was done is the primary difference between Wall St and the Valley.<br /><br />Anon 9.05, I would fade that big time. If anything the Socialist dude is even more likely to be a Merkel puppet.Dee Dee Humbersidenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-59865317599953785642012-01-26T21:28:08.470+00:002012-01-26T21:28:08.470+00:00Top Pickers United:
Momentum Indicators and VIX ...Top Pickers United:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-26/-extreme-s-p-500-momentum-vix-signal-stock-pullback-technical-analysis.html" rel="nofollow"> Momentum Indicators and VIX Signal Pulback? </a><br /><br /><a href="http://bit.ly/A1jvZp" rel="nofollow"> Rydex Fund Flows Show Small Investors Bulish </a><br /><br />Portuguese 10y now over 15%.....Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-17570523469276485772012-01-26T21:20:31.564+00:002012-01-26T21:20:31.564+00:00Up Shit Creek, without a paddle.
No worries, thoug...Up Shit Creek, without a paddle.<br />No worries, though, Greek deal "imminent"...!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-72870713282706647852012-01-26T21:05:54.934+00:002012-01-26T21:05:54.934+00:00Looking at the opposition I'm sure Obama is ha...Looking at the opposition I'm sure Obama is happy to let them all get on with it. But isn't the most under priced trade for 2012 alive and well in Europe - the impending French election? It is all very well for Sarkozy to try to be Mitterand, waiting till the last moment to enter the race, but if he looses the whole fabric of Merkozy pact falls apart. Where does that leave the great European experiment?<br />dbAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-32614883386059607432012-01-26T18:21:25.478+00:002012-01-26T18:21:25.478+00:00"It's no coincidence that the bill run in..."It's no coincidence that the bill run in all asset classes from 82-07 coincided with an massive increase in total debt / GDP"<br /><br />and a concomitant decrease in the USD...!!! You can't create growth out of thin air - except with innovation.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-11940024162466636402012-01-26T18:07:03.508+00:002012-01-26T18:07:03.508+00:00Dee dee - LTCM was the fed getting a bunch of bank...Dee dee - LTCM was the fed getting a bunch of banks together to contribute capital to bail out a common counterparty. The cuts were reversed in 99 and there was no taxpayer money involved.<br /><br />If its the fiscal put you were alluding too and not the monetary one ( from which tech benefitted in 01-03), then you have point. But the credit creation and maturity transformation banks engage in do have socioeconomic benefits and raise living standards. It's no coincidence that the bill run in all asset classes from 82-07 coincided with an massive increase in total debt / GDP. If you don't think this is the case, then why does every country bailout it's financial system and banks when depositors are on the run? And if you, as a citizen and taxpayer, would rather have Lehman, AIG, Merrill, and maybe Wachovia all go bust in the space of a week instead of put up some money to back the system, then you'd be principled but dumb.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-22338787521646969892012-01-26T16:56:22.627+00:002012-01-26T16:56:22.627+00:00@ Leftback
Don't get too caught up trying to g...@ Leftback<br />Don't get too caught up trying to guess the Fed. I would argue a) this wasn't urgent, it has been coming for months. b) dispersion of survey results indicate more hawkish undertones than official stmt would lead you to believe.<br /><br />As for random nonpredictions how about Barca will win the Champions league! Sorry EPL fanistas.Coreynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-28109044672385889392012-01-26T15:44:30.864+00:002012-01-26T15:44:30.864+00:00Something around the corner coming our way soon......Something around the corner coming our way soon...yesterday pre Fed action spoke volumes in some places.<br /><br />Sitting and waiting mode for now.Amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-89976221486947171012012-01-26T15:08:01.081+00:002012-01-26T15:08:01.081+00:00Did you guys see the report yesterday that CALPERS...Did you guys see the report yesterday that CALPERS made 1% in 2011? Not that HFs did much better in a lot of cases, but you can always rely on Real Money to underperform b/c of "committee decisions" and "too large footprints" to allow nimble asset allocation.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-71407656833698416712012-01-26T14:56:16.421+00:002012-01-26T14:56:16.421+00:00If you got some of the rally, smile. If you missed...If you got some of the rally, smile. If you missed it, sit tight and don't chase. I am just glad I learned not to trade actively on Fed days. I would rather poke my plonka into a pool of piranhas.<br /><br />What we should be thinking about, in the aftermath, is what is it that the FOMC expects to happen that would require: a) urgent dollar debasement, and b) rates on hold until 2014-2016?<br />(Hint: We guess it is NOT robust US jobs growth, US decoupling or European rebound). <br /><br />Ignore the frothing hyperinflationistas. Bernanke and co. see something coming and it is additional deleveraging, dollar strength and deflationary pressure. Hence the pre-emptive strike.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-16323284985278282352012-01-26T14:05:44.467+00:002012-01-26T14:05:44.467+00:00whether the tech industry vs the financial industr...whether the tech industry vs the financial industry has a put or adds more REAL value is debatable, all I was saying is that rich 20 somethings in silicon valley are just as common as iBankers/Traders in NYC and London (regrettably, I am neither )<br /><br />The spoos are relentless, rates low forever (or so the fed would have you think) and the so begins the process of portfolio allocations back into the market<br /><br />For those who missed the US rally (which seems to pull all risk assets with it) what do we buy? EM equities/debt/currencies? Sell the Yen etc. Frontier markets are my playabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84484606313853268192012-01-26T11:19:35.150+00:002012-01-26T11:19:35.150+00:00the big question of 2012 : will the short Japan tr...the big question of 2012 : will the short Japan trade finally pay off? It has been the widowmaker for almost 20 years now, so are we finally due?Tradebotnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-20042398587450038602012-01-26T11:17:53.413+00:002012-01-26T11:17:53.413+00:00TMM is wrong on the Milibandwagon...it will keep r...TMM is wrong on the Milibandwagon...it will keep rolling all the way to 2015. Getting rid of the leaders is old traditional hobby of the Tory party and even the cuddly sandal wearing brigade of Lib Dims can do it, but it is NOT in the Labour party DNA. They will stick with the LOSER until the bitter end + more. Look at Foot in '83, Kinnock in '87 and '82 and Brown in '10. Actually it doesn't matter who is the Labour leader, the party is ideologically bankrupt - hence all the bollox the reforming capitalism etc. <br /><br />You only can laugh : they can't name a single cut they would do but they are planning just to overhaul the entire economic system.Tradebotnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-1120518889610306412012-01-26T09:56:43.734+00:002012-01-26T09:56:43.734+00:00Didn't I just highlight *fiscal* put?
Again I...Didn't I just highlight *fiscal* put?<br /><br />Again I agree with the overall sentiment wrt the lazy thought process behind the pitchforks, but if you are really arguing that tech is collecting the same put payoff as financials, I don't know what to tell you. <br /><br />Nothing self righteous about that, if we can avoid the name calling (for all the linkage between the housing and the tech bubble, one can always raise those between tech and LTCM right?)<br /><br />Now, the auto industry ...Dee Dee Humbersidenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-75570079716769068862012-01-26T01:18:22.612+00:002012-01-26T01:18:22.612+00:00+1 on the BBC jab
The greenspan put exercise in 2...+1 on the BBC jab<br /><br />The greenspan put exercise in 2001-03, which arguably fed and stoked the leverage and credit boom at the height of the bubble, was a result of the tech bust and the recession that followed. So don't give us the self righteous crap because technology definitely benefitted from the put.<br /><br />How about: US rates trading will NOT be a growth sector the next 2 years? Yes I know going out on a limb thereAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84109443823959774532012-01-26T00:08:01.105+00:002012-01-26T00:08:01.105+00:00i thought this is meant to be the land of the FREE...i thought this is meant to be the land of the FREE, <br /><br />Dont think so, not with these idiots running the country. <br /><br />We are screwed people. <br /><br />Go listen to http://www.forecastfortomorrow.com he has some eery predictions coming true.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-9726377905162936992012-01-25T23:36:54.495+00:002012-01-25T23:36:54.495+00:00Leftback,
That 6 Fed governors are opposed to rat...Leftback,<br /><br />That 6 Fed governors are opposed to rate rises until 2015 says it all. That's 7 years post-crisis. That's Japan. <br /><br />The knee jerk commodity rally is some kind of resurgence in DGDF thinking. Not this time: whither inflation? As for the promise of QE3, you better be hoping for some more demand destruction. But this time there won't be corporate profitibility growth through gouging for margin. <br /><br />This ain't March '09. <br /><br />AlexAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-90590996488038655552012-01-25T21:00:34.772+00:002012-01-25T21:00:34.772+00:00Anon 5.09, I was obviously referring to the fiscal...Anon 5.09, I was obviously referring to the <b>fiscal</b> put. Tech can be retarded at times, but it's not like they went AIG on us either.Dee Dee Humbersidenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-80131577872774983862012-01-25T20:10:45.472+00:002012-01-25T20:10:45.472+00:00Though I enjoyed your random N-Ps and last post on...Though I enjoyed your random N-Ps and last post on short term bull-bear switch, MM, I am eagerly waiting for your N-Ps on equity and fix income in 2012.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com