Friday, September 16, 2011
Having spumed out all their funding ire yesterday, Team Macro Man are resting back exhausted. It is time for reflection. So what have we learnt this week?
- Funding disasteristas have had their guns spiked by CB actions, or rather - offer of actions (you know TMM's thoughts on the funding story from yesterday's post).
- TMM are surprised that so many people who should know better don't (on many issues).
- SNB have survived the first week of eur/chf 1.2000 defence despite a crucifiction of everything Euro earlier in the week and a market adamant that it will fail. Looks solid.
- UBS didn't and doesn't. There is a really good reason why you don't promote people from back or middle office to front office: they know the systems well enough to cover their tracks. Better the norm where very few front office people have a clue what happens to a trade once they press "done". Leeson, Kerviel and Adoboli all had this in common. Note to management - if you want to hire a back or middle office guy to do a front office job, hire them from a different bank.
- When traders are in the office past 10pm, something is a foot. Risk managers should have an alert for when traders fail to "beep" out of the office.
- Judging by TMM's inbox Nigerian scammer jokes are easily transposed to Ghanaian scammer jokes.
- TMM are still scratching their heads as to how he managed $2bio, or is this the biggest kitchen sinking ever?
- All European politicians should be fired.
- Timmy G is running european policy.
- Lagarde has bigger balls than the tow hitch on a redneck's pick up.
- Be sceptical when punters declare Asia/NOK/SEK the "new safe haven".
- MXN may be cheap, but some folks seem determined, to TMM chagrin, to make it cheaper.
- Materials inventories are piling up in China and Chinese cement co's are trading really poorly (which makes TMM happy).
- In non-political land Global IP was actually not too bad in August.
- Ringfencing bad european debt would have to involve seas and oceans.
- Banks are to become village post offices.
- Village post offices are to be closed.
- Old fashioned Merchant Banking will respawn with TMM looking forward to names and addresses such as "Wimble, Womble and Phlewwin, Old Dribble Lane, The City" returning to fashion.
- leverage is for pivots.
TMM are now settling back to watch the second half of Greece vs Germany...