Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Dog tired dog days

Can't even string words together. So here is a stream of disconnection.

Trading relative value in these markets must be like running a Lalique glass store on the main street in Pamplona on race day.

5% rally in Nikkei is NOT a massive bounce. Just look at a chart.

What IS your edge in these markets? Does leafing through the physics notes you made as a 14yr old help you any more than just having the fastest fingers on the e-platforms as news breaks?

TMM are getting REALLY pissed off with the blx being spouted by some of the market. Live streaming radiation rates in Tokyo from your friendly broker? At this rate you'd see the world markets fall 10% the moment someone flashes their 1970s luminous watch. Isn't there more radioactivity coming from the Americium in smoke alarms?

2433 lives lost in Chinese coal mines last year. Considered a huge improvement from the 1996-2000 average of 7619.

In light of what happened last time the European powers-that-be performed a stress test, evacuation is highly recommended.

The central banks are still in charge of FX at every level.

Have real money reacted to all this? Naturally laggards, we hear some have (in FX), and yet Equity land seems further behind.

Could Bahrain cede power to Saudi Arabia and solve their problems in a similar way to Ireland's Eurofication undermining the IRA (they never blew up Brussels).

Gaddafi is having a ball. His threats to cut all contracts to the West, apart from Germany, has us wondering what the hell Germany have been doing behind the scenes to curry favour. Tobruk part Zwei?

Sentiment is what is keeping the growth alive. Will the fall in sentiment be sufficiently influenced by recent market moves to turn the positive growth feedback loop into a negative feedback down spiral again?

Why are prestige marque car dealers having record sales in the UK, when TMM and their UK mates are NOT feeling at all flush?

Which Brit would possibly pay £2012 for an as yet unallocated ticket to hopefully watch a 10 second running race in a grim part of London. That's £724.320 per hour and not even TMM's gardener charges that much.


Anonymous said...

Germany has been rather hands-off regarding Libya. Maybe because of their special relationship with Russia?

Anonymous said...

hen discussing the horrible tragedy this afternoon, please, remember to give Gartman credit. Here’s what he wrote in a note today:

Not wishing to suggest that we had told everyone to be concerned about such events, we were laughed at two weeks ago when we wrote of the impending close approach of the moon to the earth this week and next. We have done a bit of reading since, and this shall be one of the closest approaches of the moon to the earth in ages and we feared, along with others, that this close approach and the concomitant larger-than-normal gravitational effect of the moon upon the earth would result in increased earthquakes. If the moon’s effect can be larger and smaller upon tides as the moon approaches and recedes from the earth, it seemed quite reasonable to us… and is proven by geological academic studies… that the effect upon stressed areas of the earth’s surface would also be affected. We warned then of increased quake activity during the next several weeks. We shall warn again of that likelihood.

Anonymous said...

"2433 lives lost in Chinese coal mines last year. Considered a huge improvement from the 1196-2000 average of 7619."

I supposed that you mean 1996-2000, otherwise you really have an amazing set of time series data on China's mining industry.

FX said...

Relax, TMM, the markets busted, among others.

Polemic said...

Re Anon @ 12.59:
Err yes .. Bloomfucius, he say :- he who has data on coal that far back is lying skink.

Corrected, thanks

FX said...

This was out

Anonymous said...

Indeed, contrary to some reports circulating the Internet, perigee Moons do not trigger natural disasters. The "super moon" of March 1983, for instance, passed without incident. And an almost-super Moon in Dec. 2008 also proved harmless.

Anonymous said...

Gartman "moon" ..jeezus ..the only moon he's right about is the none he sees when I dropped my pants.The man's a clown.

Intrinsic Value said...

looks like JPY finally stepped up to the plate.

Anonymous said...

Not surprised you have not posted for a couple of days.Weeks like this there's only time to manage funds.

Still there's plenty of scope now for a renewed macro look at the implications from this week.
Have we just seen a global 'QE3'?

What if anything does it mean for goverment debt in Japan and US from here?

Have they just kept the carry trade alive for another quarter?

Do I have any energy left to lift a coffee cup?

Minty said...

Intervention has not been like the plaza accord. Very token sums. Buy PLNJPY calls the trade for me.

Anonymous said...

Did not mention "Plaza accord" and if 25b is "token" by all means be my guest and trade against it.
Going against one bank can be a workable scenario.All the G7 banks ,I don't think so ,except with the short range they have already drawn to be acceptable.

Anonymous said...

Interesting what the attack on Libya will do to the EUR and JPY, traditionally this will be a safe haven trade , will intervention stand against this, if the yen is not a safe haven currency will the EUR benefit, it hasn't looked that shakey as the nuclear debacle developed.

Anonymous said...

Exactly wat constitutes a safe haven these days ?
It seems to have changed from the expected.