Monday, January 24, 2011
You remember last week TMM were wondering what the motivation for the Soothsayer to break his cover was to go mainstream with his calls? We were wondering if he was going "Taleb" in making himself a public name by putting in a big call. Well, it would appear we were right to be suspicious as today all Bloomberg users have had a message that the so far free Soothsayer service will soon be charged at a price of thousands of dollars per year per user. Now it all makes sense! We bet he was hoping that the equity market would have tanked by now though.
On Friday we mentioned that we still see the picture for Eur/usd and equities to head higher and indeed Eur/Usd put in a new high in early far east time. Call it gut feel rather than proven, but we have always had a feeling that early far east new highs or lows without major news often mark turns. And when we add that to CFTC data back to flattish (well, small long) now, we get the feeling that the market has started to want to JBTFD rather than sell JSTFR. Finally. a soothsayer signal, probably one of the last free ones we are allowed to see, is showing a sell signal maturing on the daily charts today.
TMM have been steadfastly calling Eur/Usd higher but now think there are reasons for it to at least pause. EUR/CHF and EUR/AUD and the trusty XAU/EUR all showing signs of Eur weakness returning.
Whilst we mull over things during an otherwise quiet day, our attention was attracted to the performance of everyone's favourite trade of the year, namely Long Oil. We know that short term corrections in Macro trades are almost a welcome sign of overall health. You only have to look at the bullish palladium calls of last Feb, as an example. May and June looked disastrous, but by year end the macro view prevailed. But the price action in oil over the past few days has us concerned that a move sub 88.10 on the front WTI contract leaves fresh air below, which could well be painful as it's an obvious stop loss level. But our question remains - is anyone out there actually bearish crude? If so, would love to hear from you in the comments section.