Wednesday, May 26, 2010
Due to the restrictions of a monster hangover and the ability to only be able to focus by closing one eye, this is being rationed to bullet points.
Reasons to be cheerful 1, 2, 3...
- Libor destressing - EDM0 has bounced, Whites-Reds steepening, EURUSD basis sharply tighter.
- $5.4bn taken in ECB's USD FX Swap lines, by just three bidders. Clearly yesterday's rumours about a certain Mediterranean bank were untrue.
- Hammer in candlestick on US stocks (compare with 5th feb low) and failure to breach and hold the year's lows.
- 89% of stocks in the S&P500 being more than one standard deviation below their 50day moving average.
- Island reversal in Eurostoxx against the May 7th lows.
- Even Marc Faber saying its a buy.
- EURNOK falling.
- USDSEK soothsayer technical sell, GBPJPY soothsayer technical buy.
- Corporates returning to put on long term hedges in non-USDs.
- Relative silence on the European front (Mangler been bound and gagged).
- The US is clearly pissed off with EU policy incompetence.
- Geithner called for a Eurozone bank stress test (swearing on the phone call between Obama & Mangler?!). Important as Fed/Treasury think US Stress Tests were point at which they "won the war" re: market confidence.
- Joint US/German press conference announced for tomorrow - policymaking is finally being internationally coordinated.
- Italy followed Spain, Portugal & Greece in enacting a deeper fiscal austerity plan.
- Barney Frank has killed the Swap Desk provisions in the Financial Regulation Bill.
- Background data continues to be good (although no effect from the recent panic has fed through yet).
- Consumer Expectations component of US Consumer Confidence points to robust growth in PCE(chart below, PCE yoy lagged 6months).
Reasons to be miserable 1, 2, 3...
- The bounces in risky-FX have been tepid.
- Read any recent press piece.
- Europe is still a complete mess.
- Credit/Equity pipeline a potential supply overhang.
- Someone has handed German regulators a loaded machine gun.
- Going to ban people with "fat fingers" next?
- Monster hangover from last night.
- Living in the UK.
Care to add your own reasons to be cheerful or miserable in the comments?