Nervous

A short post today, as Macro Man is tied up with various errands this morning. Suffice to say that markets feel nervous in a way that's been largely absent during the past couple of weeks' rally.

Maybe it's the volatility that always lurks on triple-witching days. Maybe it's the late-session swoon taken by Shanghai- though contrary to Macro Man's expectations of a few weeks ago, developed markets seem to have shrugged off eyeing Chinese stocks for short-term guidance. Maybe it's negative headlines on Lloyd's...it seems like the first time in a while that we've seen negative news on banks get serious airplay. Or maybe it's next week's autumn equinox, which is getting some attention as a possible source of hocus-pocus to derail the risk asset rally. (Paging the sky dog....)

In any event, after such a sharp rally in recent days/weeks/months, the market feels overdue for another look at the downside...even such a look once again fails.


So really...Macro Man can't blame markets (or himself) for feeling just a little bit nervous...
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September 18, 2009 at 9:26 AM ×

FX leading the charge for now. HK is ignoring the Shanghai price action but I don't think for that long. The China derivatives pi$$ing contest rolls on.....

http://english.caijing.com.cn/2009-09-17/110253266.html

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Crisis Management
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September 18, 2009 at 9:52 AM ×

Looks like someone woke up in London and sold on the IMF gold rumor. Risk/reward between here and 1033 seems unfavorable.

Meanwhile Japan CDS widended from 155 a few days ago to 210 at one point earlier today on a bad debt story. Bad news in UK as well, as well as talk of parity with EUR.

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Macro Monkey
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September 18, 2009 at 12:21 PM ×

Finally feels like some profit-taking is in front of us. But fellow primates are by now hard-wired to buy the dip. Arm-wrestling likely in store.

I am not and have not been a bear, but I have let go of a fair number of bananas in the last 24hrs and will see if I get a chance to re-load.

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September 18, 2009 at 12:32 PM ×

Before FOMC this is likely to just be a bunch of Monkey's throwing faeces and not much getting done. I don't see anything to really read into here.

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Anonymous
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September 18, 2009 at 12:33 PM ×

it is churn. i had my hopes up at 8am but there is little follow through

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September 18, 2009 at 12:41 PM ×

Anon, on that point I have but one thing to say:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZEKTSO1scaI

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Anonymous
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September 18, 2009 at 1:55 PM ×

Nemo 12.32
The smartest post of the day.

"feels", "nervous" ..lol

Try what is price doing ?

For a big witching event ...nothing much.

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PPM
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September 18, 2009 at 2:10 PM ×

What is the IMF gold rumor?

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leftback
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September 18, 2009 at 2:25 PM ×

Shanghai led world markets up, what is it doing now? S&P futures up but out of alignment with the dollar. Could be a 5 minute rally today.

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Anonymous
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September 18, 2009 at 2:25 PM ×

Nemo 12:41

great advice

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Anonymous
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September 18, 2009 at 3:38 PM ×

Don't look now, MM, but sterling is being.. pounded.
Boom, boom.

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Macro Man
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September 18, 2009 at 3:42 PM ×

Yes, it's looking rather tarnished.....

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John
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September 18, 2009 at 4:41 PM ×

What is the chart posted this AM om MM's post VG DEC 09 ?

Anyone. Thanks ahead of time.

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Anonymous
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September 18, 2009 at 4:49 PM ×

http://www.efgfp.com/Search/Mini-Future

on the EuroStoxx

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Nic
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September 18, 2009 at 4:51 PM ×

Baltic Dry Index is not too happy either ...

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Anon @ 4:49
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September 18, 2009 at 4:51 PM ×

NB: The Bearish contract

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Anonymous
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September 18, 2009 at 5:01 PM ×

Sterling is going down now. I think it is a trend worth pursuing. Damn if you have a lot of sterling capital, thanks to the govt and the "independent" central bank, it is now being trashed even further. And you wonder why gold is bid!

Cable is an interesting looking H&S, right time frame, everything is setting up for a break in the pair. Any hint of general dollar bullishness...ouch!

Liking some of the setups I am seeing now. Copper, crude, who knows what way they turn, but at least we now have some definition.

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Crisis Management
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September 18, 2009 at 5:05 PM ×

GOLD: Newswire reports say the IMF will hold a meeting today to discuss
about diversifying its gold holdings amid plans to sell about 1/8 of its
gold, the equivalent of 12.97 million ounces (Dow Jones).

I recon this didn't help the pound: *DJ BOE Miles: UK May Be Out Of Recession In 6-9 Months: Report

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Anonymous
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September 18, 2009 at 6:36 PM ×

dear gs guy-

ive changed my mind on your trade
you are right
dollar squeeze is coming

mpm

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leftback
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September 18, 2009 at 7:29 PM ×

Dollar squeeze - what a smashing idea.

A modest $ rally could be painful for those who are leveraged longs in the commodity and PM space. There is a distinct possibility that the Chinese pig farmer is beginning to tire of having all that copper in the sties and the pigs in the bedroom. Whenever LB hears of such intense public participation, he smells a turn in the market.

LB's favorite clueless Late to the Party investors have all mentioned DGDF repeatedly this week. Contrarian indicators are rising. Skewed to the short side here - a dollar rally would precipitate an unseemly exit from gold, crude, XLB, and XLE, any more bank problems would result in FTQ and the carry unwind will produce even more dollar buying.

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Anonymous
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September 18, 2009 at 7:35 PM ×

digg it LB!!


lol my word verification for this post was pimpt

as in the inflation bulls are about to get pimpt' (10yr below 3.50 hello washington!!)

mpm

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Anonymous
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September 19, 2009 at 2:59 AM ×

you know what i love
an overbought spx rsi during a deflationary period
and what i love to short with every gun i got

this is a joke

are you going long w the shoeshiners, or short w the bosses

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September 19, 2009 at 8:21 AM ×

This copper slide is v nice.... now, if only it would bust out of that range and punch through 2.70 we might have a real party on our hands.

I'm long Dec gold puts but have been wisely cautioned that if it goes down vols probably go down and I won't make much money anyway. Rats.

Equities? We will see. I never underestimate the Chinese governments capacity to screw the shorts especially if it is politically expedient to do so.

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Crisis Management
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September 19, 2009 at 12:48 PM ×

Nemo, just peered at the LME warehouse stats. There sure is a huge overhang building from a yearly perspective in a number of those metals.

Where did the Chinese get this idea of hoarding nonferrous metals? Did Western bankers sell them on it, or did they come up with it on their own? Almost seems like a central planning ghost from their past.

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September 19, 2009 at 2:39 PM ×

No idea on the hoarding. I guess they looked cheap (they were) and if you get working capital loans which have no collateral requirements or restrictions on use of proceeds why the hell not?

The warehouse build looks big and there is a big weight of hoarding there looking for a bid, this could unwind quickly unless of course the restocking story is correct for the western world or China just pumps in more credit which looks likely given that Xi Jinping seems to have missed his promotion. Check http://chinesepolitics.blogspot.com for the latest on that from Victor Shih.

Trading wise, staying short copper down to 2.70 as per the range then we'll see if there is any catalyst that can take us out of the range.

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September 19, 2009 at 2:39 PM ×

No idea on the hoarding. I guess they looked cheap (they were) and if you get working capital loans which have no collateral requirements or restrictions on use of proceeds why the hell not?

The warehouse build looks big and there is a big weight of hoarding there looking for a bid, this could unwind quickly unless of course the restocking story is correct for the western world or China just pumps in more credit which looks likely given that Xi Jinping seems to have missed his promotion. Check http://chinesepolitics.blogspot.com for the latest on that from Victor Shih.

Trading wise, staying short copper down to 2.70 as per the range then we'll see if there is any catalyst that can take us out of the range.

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Judy
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September 19, 2009 at 3:54 PM ×

Volatility is inevitable since no one wants to pull the plug on the liquidity pool and no one wants to be the one going out with the whirlpool when the plug is pulled. It's a free for all right now. After all the ruckus and pouting bankers bawling over bonuses, maybe some are starting to build their "funds" bases from within their present positions, not pointing at anyone !

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Anonymous
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September 22, 2009 at 12:34 AM ×

who wants to be a kiwi trader.

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