Thursday, March 12, 2009

Not Happy

"Not Happy."

Such was the ortho's description of Macro Man's knee this morning, much to his chagrin. He still cannot fully straighten his left leg, nor can he walk normally; both are preconditions for an ACL reconstruction from Macro Man's surgeon.

"Not happy" might also be an apt description of some macro punters out there. Macro Man has noted the possibilities of a March position squeeze, and thought that fixed income was a likely source of the pain. It seems as if he has missed his guess.

Foreign exchange is one market that has suddenly become bloody difficult, as it seems that it has been the locus of a lot of position squeezing this month. EUR/JPY is the latest cross to suffer a correction this week, following on the heels of EUR/USD (back and forth and back again!), USD/Asia, and EUR/CEE4. Not pleasant.Gold longs have been feeling the "joy" of position liquidation for a couple of weeks; a chart of the past thirty trading days resembles one of the Alpine peaks near Switzerland's many gold vaults.
And of course, the recent equity bounce has brought a steep correction (in percentage terms, at least) to the financials; the SKF double-short ETF has had a 40% peak-to-trough decline in just 4 days. Double-ouch!
Obviously, thre are some markets and strategies where the shake-out has been non-existent; Gilts, for example, are close to their highs and didn't move much after yesterday's reverse BOE auction.

Just about everyone goes through these periods where you have one thing go moderately wrong and a bunch of things go slightly wrong. It's frustrating and unpleasant, but it's part of doing business. Eventually, this too shall pass, as the saying goes; in the meantime, Macro Man's got his nose to the grindstone, trying to ensure that happy days come again......the sooner, the better.


John said...

A few general things. I enjoy your posting very much. Your style engenders a familiarity with your readers. With that in mind best of luck with your knee.

dblwyo said...

MM - ouch for lots of reasons, starting with your knee. Sorry the potential for a continuing metaphor continues. What can we say ?

But it, sadly, makes for all too good a set of analogies doesn't it ?

Speaking of which if you'll run you XEU:XJY cross back after realities set in and the carry trade led to a cliff-dive in Sept. it looks to me as if it's been oscillating wildly in a range. Tradeable but not investable.

And to your yesterday's post on the "correction" - which I think of as the Pandit Pop (or the "madness of crowds" if you like) it strikes me as just that. And that we're looking for a new short-term trading range equilibrium after the "box" got busted in Feb. Wouldn't be surprised to see 690 soon:
My kitchen sink plus door opener composite dashboard.

Anonymous said...

mm -
... whos next

all before G8/G20 got to love it

Anonymous said...

Your thoughts on the overextended FCX. Copper prices don't appear bullish, not now not in 6 months.
Thanks. Keep up the posts.


Anonymous said...



Diane Macrae said...

Don't worry, your knee will soon be all better. I had an ACL reconstruction in the spring of 2000 (after destroying my ACL in a fall at Vail that sounded exactly as you described yours) and I was back skiing the next season. My ortho had the same precondition yours does. If I recall correctly, it was about a month from injury to surgery.

Forex Watcher said...

MM, I had my left ACL removed in 1962 after a sking accident when I unceremoniously left the course in GS back in collegiate days. Skied until 1981 when I left for the warmer South and took up sailing in Annapolis in its place.

Rehab does wonders even though it can be tedious.