ECB Open Thread

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Macro Man is likely to be tied up for much of Thursday morning in meetings. Suffice to say that this week's poor equity market price action was not part of the game plan (Macro Man thought we'd see a squeeze up to 1000+ in the SPX by mid-February) and has sent him back to the drawing board. It's hard to believe that he wrote a post entitled "I love risk" little more than a week ago.

The main event for Thursday is, of course, the ECB; readers and punters should feel free to use this post as an open thread over the course of the day. To get the ball rolling, here's another poll on what the ECB will do: Macro Man's own vote is for a boring 50 bps from Kermit and co.




results are here

Posted by Macro Man at 8:02 PM  

16 comments:

"I love risk" isn't the same as the titanic being unsinkable because you might actually like risk but its very similar!

Anonymous said...
8:19 PM  

Also any thoughts on what drove FXPO today? Sentiment generally bearish on mining sector except for iron ore miners in the Ukraine? FXPO seen some decent upside this week. Sorry off the track of ECB rate cutting.

Anonymous said...
8:23 PM  

My only consolation that in the post and, more importantly, in real life, my attitude was "if the market truly ♥ risk, it behooves Macro Man to like it at least a little bit," the key phrase there being " a little bit."

Macro Man said...
8:23 PM  

Re: risk - yeah I know just some banter. UK markets were pretty kind yesterday given the near 7% tank today.

Anonymous said...
8:25 PM  

re FXPO, I don't follow single name stocks, but I gather there was a downgrade.

Re: equities generally, I had switched to running a small short which I (d'oh!) covered yesterday. I find it hard to have much conviction in these markets...it's not been the most obvious start to the year, I must say.

Macro Man said...
8:29 PM  

voted 50 bps ... the conservative call. However as you said in the earlier post MM, the mistakes by the ECB have already been made ... we ARE headed for general price deflation in Europe ... this, I am afraid, is indisputable.

Claus

CV said...
8:35 PM  

Voted raise just because nothing is surprising anymore before I retire to watch bbc2 and the almost certain kicking and tarring of the same brush anyone/everyone in financials will get...

Anonymous said...
8:47 PM  

i go with 100 bps. it's time for a harsh reality for JCT & Co.

prophets said...
10:33 PM  

Like the Master Trader said to his lover, "I love you." She smiles. But he continues in a measured tone, "until the bottom falls out."

I (heart) MM [ahem, but in a manly way].

Mr Risk said...
12:27 AM  

@ prophets - When has JCT ever accepted harsh reality?

Twoand20 said...
3:46 AM  

I voted a 75bp cut cause that's what I would do.
50 is expected and won't send a positive signal and 100 leans towards panic. Take the middle.
Key issue is also that German exports are falling. The rest doesn't really matter.
geert

Anonymous said...
5:49 AM  

Despite the dire European economy, Trichet wouldn't want to lose all it's ammunition. I also voted for a boring 50 points cut (and also wrote about it).

Yohay said...
6:20 AM  

I see 25 only. He'll claim despite pronounced slowdown, impacts of past cuts not yet realized, and substantial fiscal effect in the pipeline. But he'll look good saying it. They meet again in 3 weeks so maybe another 25 then......What he wishes he could say is cuts below 2% have limited if any impact.

Anonymous said...
9:32 AM  

so ECB now deemed hakwish ?
it propelled EURUSD up, but not sure how beyond the pavlovian reaction the ECB's continued stubbornness is actually good for the EUR..

any views ?

spagetti said...
2:06 PM  

Euro is a sale.

Macro Man said...
2:07 PM  

thanks MM

spagetti said...
2:25 PM  

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