Monday, July 21, 2008
While the weekend weather didn't always feel like summer, today's market price action certainly does. What better time, then, to play another round of Macro Man's favourite occasional game, 20 Questions?
1) Should we be using last quarter as a model, wherein the equity market weakness from the end of the previous quarter resolves itself into a painful, vol-crushing seven week drift higher?
2) Or should we be looking at July 2007, when FX carry was remarkably resilient.....until it wasn't?
3) Given the stagflationary dataflow, shouldn't the US yield curve be steeper?
4) After Tiger won the US Open with an bum knee and Padraig Harrington the (British) Open with a dodgy wrist, how many golfers will intentionally injure themselves ahead of next month's PGA Championship?
5) How sad is it that an online poll has Tsar Nicholas II and Stalin running neck and neck for the title of Greatest Russian of All Time? The American equivalent would probably be something like Nixon versus Millard Fillmore.
6) When will EUR/USD break out of this 1.54-1.60 range?
7) What, exactly, was the ECB trying to accomplish by leaking hawkish commentary on a Friday afternoon markets finally showed signs of calming down?
8) Do the folks at Barron's understand the degree to which people view them as a contrary indicator?
9) Will the RBNZ cut rates this week?
10) Does anyone understand what's driving the oil market at the moment?
11) Similarly, can anyone provide a fundamental rationale for the stunning performance of CEE-4 currencies other than "the trend is your friend"?
12) Will Gordon Brown survive until the next election?
13) Are there any macro punters out there who don't love Brazil?
14) What's the next big trade in Asia: long, short, or RV?
15) Did you know that the May-July deterioration in global risk appetite was, according to Macro Man's measure, the largest of the last several years?
16) Will FIFA take the 2010 World Cup away from South Africa? If so, who will get it?
17) Is there a commodity trade to be made around the Beijing Olympics, or is it all a bit of a red herring?
18) Cristiano Ronaldo in 2008-09: Man U or Real Madrid?
19) When will the ECB cut rates?
20) Have you voted in the Banking Dead Pool yet? Lehman currently holds a slim lead over Bradford and Bingley.