Thursday, January 17, 2008
Yes, boys and girls, after a wild two weeks it's time for another round of Macro Man's favourite game. And so without further ado....
1) At what level (assuming "orderly" markets) would Japan's MOF intervene in USD/JPY?
2) If the answer to #1 is >100 (or >150 EUR/JPY), how would the US and Europe respond to their G7 colleague's descent into mercantilism?
3) How bad will today's Merrill earnings announcement be?
4) Do Newcastle United fans really expect Kevin Keegan to repeat his mid-90's magic?
5) When will the ECB next cut interest rates?
6) How much will the Bank of England cut interest rates in 2008?
7) How glad is Macro Man that he has nothing in the Icelandic krona? (Remember, kids: you can't spell "risk" without "ISK".)
9) Since Halloween, the Hang Seng is down by 21%. Is this the beginning of the end of the Great Chinese Melt-Up?
10) How long will Beijing allow the RMB to appreciate at a 20% annualized rate against the dollar?
11) Will London property prices crash, or will they remain supported by lack of supply and the execrable transport infrastructure?
12) How many US homebuilders will go bust in 2008?
13) How seriously should we be taking the collapse in the Baltic Dry Index?
14) Has the leveraged community added or taken profits on risky asset shorts in 2008?
15) How quick and how large will the US fiscal response be?
16) Will it take the form of tax cuts, spending programs, or an RTC-style slush fund to buy up all the non-performing credit turds?
17) 1 and 2 year inflation breakevens in the US are around 2%. How is that not a do?
18) Who will win: Red Ken or Boris?
19) Who will win: Barack or Billary?
20) Who will win the White House: Dems or GOP?
Bonus question: Who will last longer- Keegan at Newcastle or Rafa Benitez at Liverpool?