Two observations

1) July pending home sales collapse, but August vehicle sales surge in the US. Could it be that erstwhile purchasers have decided to buy Winnebagos instead?

2) Macro Man is an idiot, as he did not get filled on the S&P futures sale. Learn from his mistakes, boys and girls, and just execute when you see a good setup. Greed, to contradict Gordon Gekko, is not always good!
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mOOm
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September 5, 2007 at 5:53 PM ×

"as he did not get filled on the S&P futures sale. Learn from his mistakes, boys and girls, and just execute when you see a good setup. Greed, to contradict Gordon Gekko, is not always good!"

Yes that happens so often... and sometimes there isn't a good setup but it is obviously correct to put on the trade.

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vinny
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September 5, 2007 at 6:53 PM ×

Ouch on S&P - your timing was beautiful

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Anonymous
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September 5, 2007 at 9:34 PM ×

Macro Man,

I am plagued by a tendency to worry, recently manifested in a particular concern, and was hoping you could provide the rational salve to ameliorate my unfortunate condition. For the past several years (more than I’d care to admit) I have been deeply troubled by the very long trend in TNX and have been harboring a nagging suspicion that all will not be well if the gently slopped mega lambda were to morph into something else. Specifically, as it pertains to your recent poll, I worry about a rather large M for SPX, one extending from say 1995 to 2010. I am troubled by the possibility that the monetary aberrations of several decades past were not in fact aberrant, but rather systemic and recurrent perhaps in long and complex cycles.

I am sure that my fear is unfounded, that all will be well and that I should simply sip my ale and return to regularly scheduled programming. However, I have thus far failed in achieving this serene state. Save me.

JS

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Macro Man
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September 6, 2007 at 11:16 AM ×

JS,

Consider that the vast improvements in world health have substantially increased the average global lifespan nad, by extension, wealth and trend growth.

Add in the vast amounts of liquidity generated by the BRICs, and the fundamental long-term outlook for risk assets looks pretty rosy, even if US equities look like a pretty good bet to underperform the ROTW over a sustained (20-year) period of time.

If that fails to provide a crumb of comfort, let me recommend a strong whiskey every night before going to bed.

And if that doesn't work, consider putting all of your financial wealth in whiskey; you can buy barrels of freshly-distilled single malt from a nubmer of distilleries, and the payoffs are exponential with the passage of time! (Disclaimer: I own two ten-year old barrels, so I have a vested interest in whiskey prices going up....)

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Agustin
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September 6, 2007 at 3:36 PM ×

Are we looking at the same data? August 29: custody holdings (treasuries + agencies) $1979,353.- August 1: $2009,950.- In other words, a $30.6bn decline. Not bad!

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Anonymous
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September 7, 2007 at 1:11 AM ×

Macro Man,

Thank you for the reply. That crumb of comfort did help some in assuaging my darkest macro fears.

I am a whiskey enthusiast as well, but of late have been attempting to temper that enthusiasm. Perhaps temperance is not suitable for the life of the mind.

JS

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