Tuesday, January 23, 2007

Putting paid to the preposterous principle that puny petroleum prices prevent....

...oil producers from ramping the foreign exchange market when the mood fits them. Yes, ladies and gentlemen, this morning featured a good old-fashioned screw job from the Voldemort fan club, Moscow branch.

Today's frenzy of euro buying (conveniently a day after Macro Man's euro calls expire worthless) was kicked off by Russia with love, if widespread market intelligence is to be believed. So much for the notion that lower oil prices would force these guys to the sidelines!


The Basel branch of the Voldemort Fan Club reportedly whacked some of the yen crosses but not, naturally, NZD/JPY or GBP/JPY, two of the most overextended and overvalued currency pairs on the planet. Macro Man is naturally pleased that he chose to implement the only one of the three possible G10 carry basket currency pairs (AUD/CHF, NZD/JPY, and GBP/SEK) to be offside since he pulled the trigger. Ever get the feeling it's gonna be one of those months?

Two equity trades were executed for the portfolio yesterday. The second chunk of the beta plus SPY purchase was filled at 142, while the market proved the Diamonds are not, in fact, forever as the short DIA position was finally closed at 125.

It's probably correct to expect a bit more equity volatility over the next few weeks as earnings reports continue to pile in. Macro Man's impression is that earnings have been decent but not spectacular, and it's probably appropriate that the market takes a breather to shake out the weak hands. Macro Man remains 141 bid for the balance of his SPY position, but will also look to lighten up on his alpha futures position on rallies over the next week or two.




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