Tuesday, January 09, 2007
Macro Man feels like a character in an Edgar Allan Poe story this morning, the exquisitely named Fortunato in The Cask of Amontillado. 1.2972 was the low of the day yesterday in EUR/USD, missing the stop loss level by 2 pips. For once, Voldemort and his cronies appear to have done Macro Man a favour. The stop remains at 1.2970, along with the take profit at 1.3190, though Macro Man reserves the right to lower the latter in the event of a further tepid rally in the euro.
Also meriting the Fortunato sobriquet was the timely sale of EUR/TRY, which is nearly a percent onside already. And of course, the equity bounce has been beneficial to the long SPX futures position.
Less fortunate of, course, is the foray into long oil, which is 60% of the way to its stop loss level already. The trading gods are no doubt enjoying Macro Man’s punishment for violating one of the fundamental axioms of trading, which is to trade what you know and know what you trade. The speculative foray into energy on the basis of the experts’ opinions has thus far been a mistake. Then again, perhaps it is this position that most resembles the Fortunato character in the Poe story. After all, Fortunato ends up being trapped behind a brick wall in Montresor’s cellar, an end almost as grisly as a $2.50 loss in oil in a matter of hours....