Monday morning bullet points

*  The latest Brexit poll shows a slight move towards Remain, as does the betting in the bookies.   The margin of movement in the poll, however (+3% for Remain) is sufficiently small as to be difficult to ascribe much if any significance towards it.   That being said, markets have opened Sunday with the kind of gap movement that you'd expect with an increase probability of Remain.   Here's an hourly cable chart 9disregard the bad print from last week:

* This came out last week, of course, but the St. Louis Fed's latest flip flop might plumb new depths.   A few weeks after flirting with a neo-Fisherian view of the world (implying low interest rates might put downward pressure on inflation), Bullard presented a new "regime-based forecasting model" that now thinks that the real rate on short term government debt should be -137 bps and that the policy rate should sit at 62 bps for the next several years (thus answering the question of the identity of the ultra-low dot plot.)  Whatever merit the new model may have (and the schematic, depicted below, does not inspire confidence), the constant changes of posture- well beyond what any evolution in the data might suggest- has entirely destroyed the market credibility of Mr.  Bullard.   He would do well to recall the aphorism that 'tis better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and remove all doubt.

* So farewell then, Raghuram Rajan, who will be leaving office in September after getting stick from the government for doing the right thing.  While it's not always been smooth sailing in India, Rajan has helped steer the ship into considerably calmer waters than would otherwise have been the case.     Prior to Rajan assuming office, India was a fully paid-up member of the "Fragile Five".   Since he took office, the INR has more than held its own against the dollar, unlike its erstwhile compatriots.   Note to the Modi government:  Be careful what you wish for, because you just might get it.