Guys, can I request that we take the sophomoric insults and leave them in the Yahoo message boards. This forum should be used to discuss markets, ideally from a macro perspective, in a civil manner. The occasional reminder that this is a tactical market is fine, but I must admit that I find repetitive posts of "JBTFD RULZ! Shorts are FULZ!' to be fairly grating and contrary to the spirit of the blog. So, too, are personal insults: if you feel compelled to attack another post, attack the idea, not the proponent. Thanks you.
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17 comments
Click here for commentsI'm in the market every day. You might class me as a day trader. I swing short & long, take oitrights and spread multiple legs. A jack of all trades. I see what FM says (and trade that way at times) but view markets the way Nico does. This is probably the cleanest place for discussion. Temps raise with vol but isn't that to be expected? I love vol
ReplyTo add; FM & Nico. You both see the market almost the same way. One is playing the short term impacts of the CB's while the other is playing the fall out. You both realise the true impacts. Two stags playing touch willy.
ReplyPeople read the comments? Cant have too much insightful bloggery without drawing out the sycophants. Congratulations, youve officially made it to the blogosphere.
ReplyBut more seriously on the programming note more hockey analogies and less futbol.
the gene pool always benefits from a little chlorine from time to time
ReplyMM sry u had to resort to writing that programming note - that said, I'm confident that its a critical mass of serious posters that matters in the long run, and we have that.
ReplyChange of subject.
Anybody care for Volkswagen here? too early? too late?
For perspective, BP is trading around 20% higher than where it was after the GOM oil spill - this is after an epic oil price crash, a plethora of other regulatory issues, management changes, and a general hatred of companies that insist on digging underground to find things to sell.
Also interesting move in REITs post Yellen - its as if that market got the memo on bull steepening before financials, and more importantly, the bond market!
So Jim Cramer is 'unsavory' for asking for rate cuts all day and twice on Sundays - we all knew that - could we have a better messenger for the story than Bull Bullard, who was out promising QE generosity as recently as a year ago on a mere 9% drop in equities, but is now out trying to revamp his public image? Sorry, Jim, the average of being a dove and hawk in quick succession does not equal wisdom.
ReplyI think Central bankers will all individually prepare for some kind of an end game (I am not predicting it, just saying their fear is palpable) so they don't get blamed for any major 'volatility' in the next couple of years - expect to see more moonwalking than the early 80's in speeches over the next few months.
It wasn't us, it's the financial media.
Nice try.
30 day TBills at NEGATIVE 2bps , 90 day TBills at NEGATIVE 1bp , & 180 day TBills @ 9bps
ReplyThe power of the wealth creation machine...the Fed...New York City
Reply"Fifty percent of new-development listings were priced at more than $5 million in the three months through June, according to Halstead."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-18/manhattan-luxury-condo-glut-spurs-toll-brothers-to-scale-down
washedup re: volkswagon:
Replyhttp://www.thecarconnection.com/news/1042836_nhtsa-has-no-software-engineers-or-ees-to-analyze-toyotas
http://embeddedgurus.com/barr-code/2013/10/an-update-on-toyota-and-unintended-acceleration/
The us government has been looking the other way over safety issues with on-board firmware for years. Apparently if it is an environmental problem the government actually cares.
Anyway there's definitely a deep well of mischief with respect to the programming of cars, but I kinda doubt anyone really wants to know what's at the bottom of that hole.
Seems more peeps are looking to the ECB to save the day. But, I thought they were suffering from a lack of available assets. Has this changed? Also, wouldn't this end up driving up dollar FX on the margin making life more difficult for EM?
ReplyI think the $18bln fine has a very high possibility of proving out to be bollox for an issue like this. It's not nearly the same as spilling millions of barrels in GOM which was really easy to use as a political whip and had huge popular support and boat loads of private plaintiffs (and frauds as well). This issue on the other hand would most likely have very little relevance in domestic politics. But it's still been continuously falling from March so I don't know.
ReplyIt's more likely that it's part of some kind of bigger political game behind the scene where one side (US) wants the other side (EU/Germany) to do something after which it can be buried silently with a nominal compensation. Otherwise VW will just dilute it over years or even decades like BP. If that was the case I'd guess TTIP although non-relevant.
Re Fed raising rates: I've been in the SF Bay Area for 30+ yrs. My property cost $30K cash; now this "poor" neighborhood has some units well over a million. Not news there, but anyone have any idea how much capital is tied up in realestate that is dependent on low rates? What happens to the average mortgage on a $3 x 10^6 house if retail rates went to 10%? What percent of property at these prices has mortgage paper in SF, Paris, London, NY, HK ... and what happens to institutional players if this happens? Glad not to be on the FED board... to clarify above, i don't mean what happens to holders of fixed term loans, i mean what happens when those holders can't get financing for a new buyer @ the rates that made the original price possible...
Reply@anon 8:58 PM
Reply"...if retail rates went to 10%..." I don't think 30-year mortgage rates will get much past 5% before the housing market will tank.
Ahem,
ReplyCould someone give me the straight dope on this CFTC OCR initiative - I have a bad feeling about this, how is this going to catch me out?
No one who is now alive will ever see retail rates at 10 percent. They just gave the green light to negative rates which will lead to more debt accumulation, larger asset price inflation and the inevitable massive deflationary shock as more and more debt defaults.
ReplyFT: methinks we should see equity lows around the end of this month; there is still a residual amount to be sold by risk parity, a few longs will fear carnage come october and earning season and everyone (except present company, of course) will be surprised by the october rebound...
ReplyHowever, I agree with MM; we could see anything between 50 and 150 points lower on spooz before that.
Though, on a note of caution, maybe too many JBTFD waiting for the last D which won't materialize ?
I guess we need some expert to give us an idea of the mindset of that crowd....
Anonymous Anonymous said...
ReplyFT: methinks we should see equity lows around the end of this month; there is still a residual amount to be sold by risk parity, a few longs will fear carnage come october and earning season and everyone (except present company, of course) will be surprised by the october rebound...
However, I agree with MM; we could see anything between 50 and 150 points lower on spooz before that.
Though, on a note of caution, maybe too many JBTFD waiting for the last D which won't materialize ?
I guess we need some expert to give us an idea of the mindset of that crowd....