20 Questions

In the absence of anything interesting to say as we wait for the second half of the week, how about a game of 20 Questions?

1) Will the ECB cut the depo rate next week?

2) If they do, where will 3 month euribor (currently at 34.4 bps) settle when June futures expire?

3) Will Donetsk be part of Ukraine in 12 months?

4) When will the BOJ next ease policy?

5) Is the recent outperformance of EM the start of a new trend or just a short squeeze?

6) In a similar vein, has the equity rotation story largely run its course?

7) Liverpool, Man City, or Chelski?

8) Which comes first: gold 1200 or 1400?

9) Is the persistent strength in 30 year bonds (now 50 bps below year-end yield levels) telling us something sinister?

10) Will buyers of the new Apple bond deal be any happier than purchasers of the first one?

11) Is FX vol heading backing to its 2007 nadir?

12) Will this winter ever end?

13) Is the next RBA move a cut or a hike?

14) How will Scotland vote?

15) Are there any large consensus positions out there that have yet to be put to the torch?

16) How low do US mortgage rates need to go to rekindle the housing market?

17) Which comes first: 0% Eurozone CPI or 2% US core PCE deflator?

18) How much higher do petrol prices need to go before they put a dent in the US consumer?

19) What will be the high in USD/CNH this year?

20) Which of the following does best for the remainder of the year:  MXN, BRL, ZAR, TRY, INR, PLN?

Bonus question

21) Does anyone else find the new font to be too a bit too light? Further tinkering might be required....

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Click here for comments
April 29, 2014 at 8:48 AM ×

I like the new font, what is it?

April 29, 2014 at 9:14 AM ×

yes - yes - yes - yes - yes - yes - yes - yes - yes - yes - yes - yes - yes - yes - yes - yes - yes - yes - yes - yes and bonus question.... yes.

Homer Simpson

April 29, 2014 at 9:25 AM ×

The questions are rhetoric or you would like to see some answers?
If so....here are mine:
1. No
2. -
3. Yes
4. Never
5. I am inclined to believe that investor's thirst of yields is pushing for the first option
6. Not yet
7. I like Chelsea but I think Manchester City :)
8. Gold 1200 and below
9. Hugh tough question! I hope not
10. Don't think so. Apple needs to re-invent themselves.
11. I don't know
12. ???
13. This year they "promised" to do nothing. Next year - a hike.
14. Using their brains I hope :)
15. Hmmmm...not an easy one
16. I am pretty sure not even Mark Carney has a clear answer to this :)
17. Idem 16 except now the "guilty" is Janet Yellen
18. There is a lot of math to do to answer this
19. It's very much depending on PBOC. USD/CNH is not a free market so is hard to make predictions.
20. hmmm.....not an easy one.

April 29, 2014 at 1:38 PM ×

I just want comment on question 16:
"16) How low do US mortgage rates need to go to rekindle the housing market?"
Answer: Zero

The Low Wage Recovery:

There are now two million fewer jobs in mid- and higher-wage industries:

The economic “recovery” has replaced higher-paying jobs with lower-paying jobs

Since January 2009, hourly wage growth has fallen -42.0% while at the same time two staples for the American consumer, foodstuffs and gasoline, has skyrocketed in price. Regular gasoline prices have risen 128% while foodstuffs have risen 51%.


This man expresses my exact sentiment toward the Greenspan/Bernanke/Yellen cabal:


April 29, 2014 at 3:16 PM ×

1-3 yes
4 August
5 short squeeze
6 yes

8 1400
9 yes
10 no
11 want to know too
12 yes
13 stay
14 stay
15 short CAD
16 3%
17 2% us
18 $120
19 6.5
20 INR

April 29, 2014 at 8:38 PM ×

21) yes, a bit darker would be much better for the eyes used to Bloomberg high contrast & sharpness.

Greeks have found a new way to reduce debt. Taxing 30% the hedge funds that played the Greek bonds. goo.gl/achhEA
Good luck with that one ...

And belated "welcome home".


Nico G
April 29, 2014 at 9:19 PM ×

for those of you folks who like non-nonsense Varoufakis