We can't believe it

Politics is an evil subject, isn't it? Far too bipolar in the US and it causes all sorts of trouble. That bipolarity is also pretty clear in the market.

1 US - Default yes/no
2 Europe - End of Euro yes/no
3 China - Hard landing yes/no

So there are 8 outcomes ranging from disaster yes/yes/yes to super bullish no/no/no through a nice probability curve reminiscent of those recessive gene charts you did in school biology (well, used to; if the UK education system is anything to judge by, A level biology now probably just involves identifying where the ears are on a rabbit).

With 1) and 2) running on politics and 3) dependent on data we can't trust, it leaves TMM twiddling their thumbs in a grumpy manner. So we have been chewing the fat between ourselves this morning, but all that seems to fall out from it is the feeling that it really isn't worth saying as most of the banter involved a catalogue of "I can't believe"'s. But in the spirit of full disclosure of this morning's I can't believe positions .. TMM

Can't believe that the periphery sell off is much more than models
Can't believe that CME is haircutting USTs
Can't believe that dates have so many calories in them, and did we eat THAT many?
Can't believe that there is no one on the bridge steering the US debt ceiling Titanic
Can't believe that its so lovely in Devon at this time of year.
Can't believe anything out from the UK ONS
Can't believe anything on the balance sheet of Chinese ADRs
Can't believe that the prices the Chinese pay for famous named wine
Can't believe that England might get ranked top in world cricket
Can't believe that Georgie is no longer on the bid (Soros is handing back external investor money)
Cant' believe that Amy Winehouse is dead (there's a warning to you, young Bieber)
Can't believe that Amy Winehouse lived so long
Can't believe Deloitte is still in business in China
Cant believe that the UK will lose its AAA rating before France
Can't believe that Japan could successfully intervene alone
Can't believe that we haven't managed to lose ANY weight ahead of summer hols
Can't believe the Squid is laying folks off before year end without getting a full years graft out of them
Can't believe that ducks haven't naturally evolved a crispy aromatic coating to guarantee their survival for as long as man exists
Can't believe how their BLSH (buy low sell high) model has evolved into a BHSL model

Mostly rubbish, but then so are the markets.
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Click here for comments
July 26, 2011 at 1:45 PM ×

can't believe the crony capitalism. Print, if when needed!

July 26, 2011 at 2:34 PM ×

US CDS Term structure just inverted. CDHT , select United States, check 'Today' and plug in 7/22/11 at bottom.
Do same for portugal with dates: 4/16/10 & 4/17/10.
Greece took a bit longer to develop, Ireland also.
Beyond the obvious, any other thoughts on interpretations?
Perhaps one more 'can't believe...'

Can't believe it took this long for CDS term structure to invert. (doesn't have quite the ring as the others)

July 26, 2011 at 2:40 PM ×

Can't believe that was a whole box of all butter Belgian dark chocolate coated stem ginger cookies.

July 26, 2011 at 2:55 PM ×

Can't believe China ever expected to build high-speed trains externally

July 26, 2011 at 2:59 PM ×

sell vol on cadmxn

July 26, 2011 at 4:51 PM ×

Can't believe TMM going to greece for hols, Oh!thats right you said FX is a second derivative,be sure to expel your thoughts to the locals as your knocking back the ouzo.