As expressing short term views doesn't seem to enamour anyone and as bigger macro ideas require time-consuming research and as TMM have neither the time nor inclination at the moment, TMM have decided to have a week off.
Back soon
As expressing short term views doesn't seem to enamour anyone and as bigger macro ideas require time-consuming research and as TMM have neither the time nor inclination at the moment, TMM have decided to have a week off.
43 comments
Click here for commentsWell deserved break and your efforts really are appreciated.
ReplySee you soon TMM.
Shit yeah!
ReplyThanks as always. **** the haters.
Reply"As expressing short term views doesn't seem to enamour anyone and as bigger macro ideas"
ReplyA view held only by the minority of your readers!!!!
This is the most insightful and amusing read in my daily digest so I will protest in Tahrir square, if need be, that it is kept up with the same spirit!!!
besides you know what they say about people who boast about the length of their "macro".....
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_eFzemeXkU_A/TLzibjYse-I/AAAAAAAABH4/9lhrPdXZqeE/s1600/haters-1.gif
Replydont quit!
Please don't let a few monkeys color your perceptions! I would bet a farm that 99% of your readership finds your daily extremely useful. I think this would be a good time to run one of your informal polls :) On the other hand if you are using it as an excuse to get some rest, then by all means, well deserved and thank you for your fantastic efforts. One of the best blogs on the net!!!
ReplyI'm sure there are many, like me, who have never posted before but for whom this blog is an integral part of their daily reading and learning process.
ReplyShort term/long term, macro/micro I appreciate your efforts, and enjoy the spirit of your posts that have greatly built my knowledge base and critical thinking awareness of what the heck is going on.
If that is a direct response to my post the other day then you might thank me. Your account will look better for not trying to catch every would be signal that hits your screen. Moreover I suspet you know that.
ReplyEnjoy your break ,or just post for fun,nothing the matter with that to fill in the gaps.
Enjoy the Research break and come back stronger. This is THE best blog around
ReplyIs that TMM pictured at the beach in Sharm El-Sheikh? Seriously, this blog is the best. Without it I would be forced to brave the perpetual madness over at Zerohedge... Thanks TMM!
ReplyGood move, TMM, save your strength and inspiration for those bigger game macro ideas. I subscribe to what the guys above just said - it is great of you to share these things with us. People pay serious money for stuff that is nowhere near as good. Now I know I haven't yet contributed to your charity, and that's only because I am lazy. I will :) Hell, I'll even pay a subscription fee. Just don't give up!
Replyyou are The Man!
Replyhave a good break, a holiday reading follows:
http://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/1680.html
Second all the support. Thank you for your contributions.
Replynothing beats chart reading as an expression of "short term views... and as bigger macro ideas"
Replyneedless to say i like readig this blog time to time but charts says it all....:-)
for example, eurcad down as weekly inverz flag has been builiding
the humour alone is worth the price of entry...please don't leave me bereft of my daily chuckle...you can only make a macro with lots of little micros
ReplyHey TMM I agree with all the above, I reckon that your readership is far bigger than you would know from the comments and the vast majority appreciate your time and thoughts whether LT or ST.
ReplyI have never thanked you for your excellent efforts.
ReplyEven though being a small account day trader and not really have the knowledge to grasp everything you write, this is still my favorite read.
TMM this is still the most entertaining and original commentary on the markets and still at the same remarkable price. In the spirit of giving a little back have you considered selling advertising and passing the money on, eg to GOSH? I'd be very much in favour of anything that motivates you to keep up the great work.
Replyehmmmmmmm shame...... one of the goto sites for me. Reasonable refection on markets though, it is quiet although I suspect we might see a tad more vol in the coming days. Enjoy the break!
Replymaybe the comment space needs to go back to registered users only?
ReplyThis is one of the few blogs I read religiously.
ReplyThank you.
Another comment of support here. Your blog has provided great insight and helped me learn new things. I check it out every day.
ReplyThank you all for your kind words of encouragement, it's heart-warming indeed. But please don't worry, we will be back next week.
ReplyIn case you were worried that our absence is in response to anything specific, we are seldom influenced in how we structure our posts by individuals, but we do read every comment. Perhaps it should be remembered why we do this - it's for increased clarity of our own thought process and to have some FUN, rather than trying to provide a free perfect-money-making-machine for others, as we know there is no such thing. It's the comments area where we look to get some reward for it all, as we hope it will fire up a lively, friendly and hopefully humorous debate that will challenge or corroborate our own thoughts - which it often does with some very talented people out there kindly offering some astute insight. Please keep it up.
As for track records, consistency of thought, measurements of performance etc., we get quite enough of that in our day jobs, thank you, to ever make us worry about that of the blog, I am afraid.
So TMM will be back next week but in the meantime keep the comments coming whilst we work out which is more tempting - reading research or relaxation with another bottle of red.
Thanks again
Your friends at TMM
Only more excited, thanks TMM.
ReplyI vote for the bottle of red, this week. TMM. Nothing of any great significance is likely to occur. The following week's anticipation of the Irish elections will spice things up, no doubt...
ReplyEnjoy the week off.
This is a truly excellent blog and I have learned a tremendous amount through following it every day. Thank you.
ReplyPlease do have a rest if it suits you, but don't think that your efforts are not appreciated. I concur with zen who says,"...most insightful and amusing read".
ReplyKeep it up - your efforts and insights are top notch and are well appreciated here.
Many thanks!
Hello TMM. Never posted a comment before but read your blog regularly. Love the ideas and the humour. Keep up the good work! From a buy-side strategist.
ReplyToo bad you had to take *this* week off. We're probably missing out on a couple of these glorious rants against the Swerve
ReplyI was going to post up the inflation letter in an attempt to bait them
ReplyLet's not overreact. It's just a one-off, temporary absence. I am sure TMM will revert to their favourite target over the medium term.
ReplyBest blog or even website around. The thought process and insights you guys are sharing is worth more than gold (or silver.. ahahah)
ReplyI love the balanced view and trading/risk-management approach.
Way better than what I read from sell-side strategists, pundits, etc...
PS: I had to substitute with ZH. And god! it is a Cuckoo's nest down there
When you get back, perhaps we can review this particular bit of fear-mongering with regard to US bond markets. Still considering the source being Goldman (always playing the other side of the trade they are pushing) and the mouthpiece is the sell-side's ultimate BRIC-shill, perhaps we can dismiss this as just another BRIC in the wall of bullshit.
Replyhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-16/u-s-bonds-may-risk-repeat-of-1994-bear-market-o-neill-says.html
Personally we think that EMs of all flavours will constitute a delicious short all year, as investors will keep crowding back in to buy each dip, only to emerge, like the beloved Knight from Monty Python, with a series of gushing "flesh wounds".
Yes its only a week off and as LB said above.. probably the right one. We'll be back next week but don t expect with the bang of a Michael Jackson return. Actually come to think of it, thats not a good analogy.
ReplyDid someone mention the Swerve? I hope he hasn't done anything silly while we have been off has he? Or we may have something to say about it...
But LB .. do you know anyone long USTs? We know an awful lot who are short up the ying-yangs.
ReplyMaybe too many people are short USTs and USD. Here is a sure sign of an incipient rally in the greenback, every moron is suddenly on TV and the web saying the same thing, "Ze dollahr vill bekom vurthlezz..."
Replyhttp://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/535935/Tips-to-Protect-Yourself-From-a-Worthless-Dollar%3A-Porter-Stansberry
Whether you are short USTs or not rather depends on whether you think we are experiencing a "normal" recovery from a "normal" recession. As you know LB is in the minority on this one, taking the view that balance sheet recessions are not like excess inventory recessions and that ZIRP/QE recoveries are not exactly the same as "the real thing". The price action today in the face of the PPI/CPI combo was instructive, no?
Welcome back in advance, lads!
That video made me think of the newsletter from the folks @ Black Swan Capital about the "Doom & Gloomers"
ReplyTwo Different Camps...News Flow or Noise Irrelevant to Both ---- There are currently two thematic exercises underway in the professional community with respect to Equities. The first are those converting to the view that the recovery is the same (i.e. self-sustaining) from balance sheet or excess inventory recessions. This group continues to move from underweight to neutral and have largely been forced to buy higher prices due to the fact that lower prices have been non-existent. The fact that higher prices are coming only in small increments is only creating the illusion that more meaningful lower prices are forthcoming and provide better location, the end result is minor chasing and major underperformance. The second group are those who began the year with the correct net long exposure and has increased gross accordingly alongside positive US data and stronger DM risk assets, these professionals are back to “business-as-usual”. Point being, beta (Sept-Dec) or sector/factor/fx rotation (Jan) are irrelevant and lower correlations have them moving back to their sweet spot of true long/short and only being interested in single names. Anecdotally, I am seeing this from their requests and the exercises I am going through for many. Conclusion: negative analogs, 3-day weekend and Mid-East concerns, a EM-DM rotation or USD covering, higher yields, corporate margin compression or less Fed money are all falling on deaf ears and not relevant to either of these two camps at the moment.
ReplyRight field makes a number of good points about market momentum, and the fact that markets don't give a damn about the nature of the recovery when there is a river of hot money flowing.
ReplyHowever, one cannot escape the fact that things are coming unglued around the world in terms of food inflation and social unrest, and the politicians and central bankers are all gathered to discuss it.
Are a few terse comments about potential withdrawal of liquidity completely out of the question? Today's market is saying yes.....
Looks like we are about to go into a long weekend with riots, revolts and revolutions in all kinds of dodgy places like Djibouti, Libya, Yemen and um... Wisconsin. If this can't trigger a rally in the dollar, and the return of TMM, then nothing can.
ReplyPretty hard to see TMM returning to the chaos that is enveloping the world at this moment, can't you see, his sitting there under the investigatory eye of his favorite cherry tree with the Ascot formguide in his left hand and a swan lager in the other.....enjoy,TMM.....you know how to pick'em
ReplyFX
Polemic - interesting you ask if we know anyone long treasuries. My main focus is fx and fxo so I may have misunderstood here but I know quite a few traders who are actively paying up EUR and US rates looking for the inflation concerns to start to build...
ReplyIn fact we're (read: my junior) starting to do a lot of work into the concept of "risk" decoupling - so those with high unemployment and inflation without the current account to protect themselves under-perform and everywhere else (read: Poland) outperforms.
This should definitely be the year of the paradigm shift in markets but I don't think it will strictly be a positive one.
Most changes start as a small short term movement, then opinions change and long term trends get established. I am always enamoured by all your views (short term or long term) as short term movements lead to changes in long term opinions.
ReplyYou are underestimating the appreciation of your readers. Come back stronger. In my view, yours is undoubtedly the best blog around.