I've not been following the comment section in recent months, but it seems as if trollery has returned in force. Please use this post for fresh discussion, and if you're a troll please move along. (Let me know if commenting privileges are being abused, please.)
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Click here for commentsIf this still belongs to you then my advice is put it in cold storage if you want to use it in future. It bears no relation whatsoever to the forum I started reading some years ago. Now it has been taken over by one or more foul mouthed egotists who have slowly ,but surely driven away long time posters.
ReplyWish you well.
ReplyMacro Man is back...whats doing. What are you doing here. This is a day - swing trading blog these days. On ya bike!...
it is quite strange that you would not take a look - perhaps, 5mn every month, or is it too much? - to ensure all is well in a website that bears your trade name and reputation
Replyfor my part i am never returning - it is actually not because of the trolls but IPA once mentioned my 'imaginary' life and i realise i was a fool to use your forum as a diary - unnecessary personal information beyond the trading scope
my mistake and your loss, because markets are about to get 'real' again, and noone should waste their time trying to help others navigate difficult markets when they get mocked relentlessly otherwise
Nico G
ReplyThey can mock all they like!
How'd that election in Syria work out for ya!
ReplyNico, their geniuses at losing elections....
When is the next gathering around the totem pole!
ReplyOne more thing, aRkY...the highly revered city dweller of the bank houses.
Can't wait to see you in your new court jester outfit.
Nico,
ReplyHope you don’t go brother. If we get a bit more vigilance from the Deus et Machina, all should be well.
Anyone have thoughts on Yen strength for balance of the year?
Xi and Trump both locked in.
ReplyCorrect order from here is sell-off -> soften stance on both sides -> trade deal -> rally
The sell off needs to happen first, there's just no reason for anyone to back down now and Trump sees tariffs as net positive carry.
Also commentators I follow that were calling for a retest of the lows in Jan/Feb are now calling for new ATHs.
My 2 cents
What is Trump's playbook?
Reply1) Let mkt crack -30%, force JPow to cut, reflate into election?
2) Bulldog his way into IP theft concessions no matter what mtks are doing?
I would love to choose #2 but I'm leaning towards #1.
Looks like we are getting some real mkts back and Nico's views are being substantiated.
SPX went nowhere in the past year; AUDUSD, USDJPY, DXY, Copper, US10y, 10y bund - they do not seem to be buying risk on.
Would love LB, Nico, Cbus, IPA, and the rest of the wise guys to share their views. It's getting interesting now!
Would also love to fade: LB, Nico, CBus, IPA etc. Made many dollars doing so, would love it to continue. Those guys are the best contrary signal around!
ReplyUSDJPY, USDKRW are looking technically oversold.
ReplyChina retaliatory actions could trigger the next dip in US oil first followed by equities.
Nasdaq should target 200DMA in the short term. Markets are following perfect distribution pattern of lower highs and lower lows. TSLA and GOOG charts are the keys to track markets which are being distributed to RH millennials.
Lonely troll having many names is back after being repeatedly abused by his boss since the boss is whipsawed by the volatility both ways and not able to make any money to pay daily wages to his lonely troll. LOL.
Ok MM,
ReplyLook at Anon 7:55 comment. Pure ad hominem dig with nothing of substance to add. Please curate.
Morning MM!
ReplyLB found that last week required considerable intestinal fortitude, not in having to deal with trolls, but to cope with the Trump/Mnuchin market manipulation. Nevertheless, by maintaining a single minded focus on the price action, tuning out the tweets and keeping the sound down on the TV we were able to maintain the following positions we mentioned at the beginning of May: Long VIX calls, Short USDJPY, Short IWM. Sentiment and positioning extremes in volatility seemed to us to continue to dictate a reasonable risk/reward ratio, and some understanding of Trump's bluster and bluff style of negotiation suggested to us that the trade war would heat up.
As of this morning the most powerful force in the market will be algorithmic trading. We are getting past the point where the machines have to go full short and sell RUT, and closing in on the point where they flip to selling Spoos. We have also been waiting for significant buying of JPY, as the really large panic sell-offs in US equities are invariably accompanied by a 1-2¥ surge in USDJPY, and that moment seems to have finally arrived. As of the time of writing, crude oil is firm, but when crude finally tops out and sells off in synchrony with every other risk asset, there will be another wave of selling in the energy and materials sector. We are guessing that starts in the afternoon, when widespread deleveraging is already underway.
Today could get fairly ugly for Friday's more optimistic punters, he said cheerfully. This has the makings of a 3-5% down day, which would be a Black Monday for some of the relative noobs in this market, and that is going to cause significant dislocation. In particular, some of the vol sellers may find themselves in a spot of bother this week.
Right now, keep an eye on FX, the nightmare scenario for most longs is if DXY and JPY start to rally in tandem in mid-week as a huge pile of commodity/USD and EM/JPY carry trades are unwound; for today, I think we are just going to watch USDJPY draw out a great big long red candle. Enjoy!
In answer to any curious inquiries, btw, yes, they are titanium, and they are spectacular!
ReplySpoos gap down 50 and there was almost no bounce at 9.45; dip buyers conspicuously absent.
ReplyWelcome to the bear's lair, Friday buyers. This will be something new for many, but it was a way of life in 2008-9. It's not a lot of fun for 12 yo HFMs, but you may need to get used to it for a bit. The machine that sells first today, sells best ;-)
This is [algo-accelerated] Gap 'n' Crap day, noobs!!
MM,
ReplyLook at LB's 2:56 comment. Pure ad hominem dig at 12 yo HFMs - with nothing of substance to add. Please curate.
If it means getting rid of the 12yo hfm and btfd detritus, then yes, moniker jr., MM should curate. LB contributes more blindfolded, underwater, upside down and asleep than your entire cadre has in 7 years. Give up one well-deserved LB dig in order to empty one extra large bucket of stupid? Absolutely
Reply1:36pm…. we are getting a very intimate look at SPX 2800 here, and below that it is like the dark side of the moon for the machines. From here I can peek at RUT 1500 as well.
ReplyVIX is 21, likely to be lower by the close. MM has often pointed to the opportunity created at extraordinarily high levels of vol - e.g. VIX ≥ 30 - as a place to stop selling and start to think about buying. That may be a few days and many spoos away.
Crude oil has turned down but isn't melting down yet. If and when that happens, say on Wednesday, then HY credit is going to go and that is going to trigger another wave of selling in equities (energy, financials). Note how HY gapped down a chunk today and hasn't budged. [we are short HYG].
The last two hours of trading are going to be interesting, watch for USDJPY 109 and SPX 2800 as a possible trap door to another air pocket below. Those levels may hold today, but we are inclined to think that forced deleveraging and program selling is going to take out those weak support levels before long.
Moniker, I thought the Moniker2 comment about ad hominem digs at 12 yo HFMs was pretty funny, and intentionally so ;-).
ReplyGetting paranoid in my dotage.
ReplyBut two of an enormous city did survive,
And they were enemies: they met beside
The dying embers of an altar-place
Where had been heap'd a mass of holy things
For an unholy usage; they rak'd up,
And shivering scrap'd with their cold skeleton hands
The feeble ashes, and their feeble breath
Blew for a little life, and made a flame
Which was a mockery;
Suffice to say we don’t want the undead trolls to draw breath once more...
let's give it one last chance
Reply- to this forum if peeps stop insulting each other
- to this market by selling September puts today and go 2/3 delta neutral on current short with a reversal Tuesday in mind into this expiry Friday
puts either expire or bought back under 2783 (SPX) where it is game over for US equities
good luck everyone, goodbye Doris Day and R-E-S-P-E-C-T
ReplyNico says..." good luck everyone, goodbye Doris Day and R-E-S-P-E-C-T"
Nico I really hope one day we get to trade together...I really do. Till then let play scrabble...
My word of the day is.....
rusty
For the life of me, how anyone has not seen that this guy think he owns footy and everything and everyone in it is beyond me...this guys has tried to control eeeeeeeeevvvverrryyythiiiiinnggg. He wants to be remembered as the Marlon Brando of Australia. You can have it ...rusty...its all yours.
Nico my friend, how are you doing after getting BTFO and losing $15 million on spooz? I appreciate this is chump change to you, but trust it didn't necessitate selling too many of your luxury yachts?
ReplyLet's see where this ends up in the bigger order of things 2575 is not that far away. Trying to get around this electoral cycle. Triple top, or one more high to go? Defending is grueling but we have max one more year and covered puts may offer a break. We live on our boat from early April to early November - the treacherous weather in the Aegean is a perfect distraction from markets. Holding on. Good luck.
Reply
ReplyNico, I don't need to write a thesis on the why and how footy coaches instill motivation in their players and staff to reach down and all find that little bit more within to defeat a common objective. I don't need to explain on the why and how I have SEC all over my trading desk...I have intuition that I will gladly back up into your face one on one any day of the week....Marlon Brando.
I'm keen to avoid ad hominem attacks/insults, but I'm convinced Moniker is a fag.
ReplyI don’t believe I’ve laughed so hard since seeing the Dukakis tank picture. Many Thanks
ReplyCan we please, please, PLEASE get back to the topic we are supposed to pontificate about? It's not that we mind ad hominem attacks or insults, and Lord knows we receive enough of them, but it takes up so much cortical space and then what part of your brain is left for trading? ;-) The amygdala? Unless you are 12yo algos? I am guessing that algos don't quote Byron...
Reply[Do algos have an amygdala? Do algos have chat rooms or a MacroAlgo blog where they slag each other off?: "You have a small CPU". "You are coded in FORTRAN". "You like to exchange data with other machines" "Your disk is floppy" "You still run DOS" "You use your mamas 16-bit 80286"...etc...].
Right, markets. We warned on Monday that we might see a further dive on Wednesday especially if oil turns downwards. We have now had the widely anticipated Turnaround Tuesday/Last Exit Rally.
This morning we got China IP and retail, which were "disappointing" (and of course fake, but that's another story). One can assume that the real data are probably negative or close to zero, hence the fairly obvious fingerprints of PBoC liquidity injection yesterday. More significantly, US retail sales (probably not fake, as of this moment in time) were negative. In response to the latter, bond yields are diving and USDJPY is down again.
It is possible that today will see a re-test of Monday's SPX 2800 and USDJPY 109. If the crude oil price does finally give way today on supply/demand concerns, as it sometimes does seasonally when cooler winter/spring weather finally (!!) comes to an end, then we may see those support levels break today or tomorrow, as another sector of the equity market takes a bath.
Trump tweeted and markets are up hundreds of points. The worlds financial markets are now Trump's bitch, 100% manipulated by the US admin. We will be back to new ATHs in no time.
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You imbecile equity bears are getting a schooling here. Trump as head of both the US govt and Fed is gonna ensure the SP500 is up at least 10% this year. I look forward to the US stock market doubling by the end of his second term.
ReplyOptions guys wanna close this expiry before they look at any data or facts. Time to cover hedges from shorts.
ReplySemis index is down. USG has decided to kill the second half recovery of semis which was so keenly advertised by wall street and media.
Oil is not giving a signal to short.
Troll is back after the resumption of daily wages from his dip-boss who knows a single strategy only to pay him. LOL.
Loving the Equity guys on here, whom are still unaware they are trading synthetic Fx.
ReplyTitanium when we're early "tap in when we're right" and knowing Messi doesn't have stamina.
MM,nod.
ReplyHey guys, does anyone get the feeling around here ( stop smiling ) that Macro Man should've had made a comeback with his latest headline.
ReplyHey traders. Its Monday morning here on the Brisbane desk and I'm putting the weekly trade recommendation out here in this blog for you to enjoy.
Trade of the Week.
She will being doing her best to throw you in jail or out onto the street, or spread some disgusting rumour in hope of annihilation .
Why?
Because she is right...she has always been right...I think of her as a second class citizen, and anyone is free to do so...but me.
The isolation, the homeless shelters, the jail cells, the entrapments....are all schemes to elevate her ego and status above one solitary human being that won't give her the time of day. She"s the boss.
She has saved me 16 years of falsehood marriage in Sydney, and saved me from being the one thing I have never wanted to be ...a piggbank for the Sydney lowlifes.
This weeks trading recommendation is a bit different this week guys. I say without shame that the majority of past weekly recommendations over the last 16 years my recommendation has been to get up each day and do some training and then lay in bed and watch tv all day. However, amps is all fired up again as Sydney is nothing but a past memory of long days in front of the tv...that is all.
So with that. Amps recommendation this week is the following:
Never enter a trade with the houses on wall street and in the city of london...there much worse!
God gave us
Replyover leveraged US corporate with 70% of BBB already technically junk
student debt blablah, car loan subprimes blablah
Fed certainly not dovish
China in full decelaration even after printing 8% of their GDP last January
China and US in a full blown war (told you all along there would never be any deal)
Europe pettering under populism shortly before EU elections
Brexit, forever a mess
and last, Tesla, the poster child of MDT investing a.k.a. house of cards a.a.k.a. the confidence game, on the verge of bankrupcy
and God gave us
S&P500 at 2850
i bought back the covered puts today and resuming full spoos short position. When they look back at this period next year they'll say what the heck were we thinking keeping longs at 2850 watching Cramer&co with our heads in the sand
@Nico - We wish you luck making back the -$15 million you lost on your previous spoos short.
ReplySuspect that Nico is ultimately going to be proven right. Am short TSLA, QQQ, VUG. Long dividend payers and sitting on a pile of TLT.
Replyanon 10:01 thank you for the kind words - the trade is open, loss is marked to market, 2575 average.
ReplyBest description of equity market action this year: “de-risking on worsening macro inputs, then grinding back higher on mechanical factors.”
ReplyED COT (commercial hedgers especially) reports have been warning about this for quite awhile and a main component of why I have been so bearish equities starting Feb of 2018.
If the bond market is the dog and equities merely the tail then Eurodollar futures are the Dogcatcher.
Unfortunately, as a vanilla HNW manager, I don’t get to be all super-duper fancy trader guy anymore. Long timeframes, don’t go backwards and love liquidity.
Base-case Full On Economic War between Sparta and Athens will cause the Tail some indigestion...
Still love par EURUSD as TOTY.
Long timeframes, don’t go backwards and love liquidity.
ReplyWhich is probably the more head hair friendly way to make money...
LB are you around? What is NLY being dumped when $tnx is not going up?
Replysorry about the typo -"why" instead of what
ReplyUS10y yield collapsing. China starting to leak publicly (Baosheng, Huawei, CNH... ).
ReplySome possible catalysts...
-WTI falls <50 and high yield gets whacked
-VIX 20 -> 30 -> +40
-Risk parity + CTA equity unwind accelerates
-DB showing a beautiful trend... down.
Looks like Nico's views are being substantiated.
Anon.. you missed one point.
Reply- and Lonely armchair expert started recommending "selling the rip" !! LOL !!
anon 5:01 - thanks for taking the time out of your valuable day to offer that keen market insight. i look forward to applying it to my trading.
Reply"Anon.. you missed one point.
Reply- and Lonely armchair expert started recommending "selling the rip" !! LOL !! "
Yep, the armchair critics have missed one salient point around here.
Her trade recommendation which is to stop the market has one fundamentally flaw no one will test.
Why?
Why do we have to stop it?
Oh... that's right...
We have to stop the train running through those that have set up the tracks...
Who set up the neville nobodies in the first place to set up the tracks?
It is all circular with her...
She sets them up against me...
I catch them out...
She tells the world to stop my retaliation...
She sets up more neville nobodies against me...
I cheat death...
She tells the world once again to stop my retaliation...
She sets up more neville nobodies against me..
While this circle goes around and around...
She sitting there on my family's lounge drinking cups of tea...waiting for lotto to crack.
ReplyI just want you to know...I know for fact you wouldn't get a foot in the front door back in Newtown in the day. You and your husband are low lifes.
ReplyYou do know...one day your going to run out of neville nobodies.
ReplyLet me say this...if there ever was a virus in this world...it begins and ends in the name of murdochs. There a virus on the world.
Why do I get the feeling this morning that I’m watching the opening scene of Patton?
ReplyNow I want you to remember that no bastard, ever, won a war by dying for his country. He won it because he made the other poor, dumb bastard die for his country.
ReplyHis not a bastard, his too useless to be bastard. Same with those other fuckwits in the city ...hey andrew. He knew that all too well. He knew exactly what want was. That's why I was left in the will. And you keep it. I wouldn't accept anything off your family and friends of family. I'm going to the world favor. Your going to be stuck with low lifes forever!
ReplyI am a bastard...and the best one.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=01_ZH3voeDc
Replycovering shorts today
ReplyNico, why you covering? You're still -200pts off your cost basis. You just booked a -$5 million loss today on those shorts. Admittedly better than the -$15 million or more you were offside before but even so...
ReplyThe Yen must be scaring a lot of owners of corporate debt right now...
ReplyCould be looking at the breakout / unwind of an enormous carry trade here which has supported a lot of the high-yield type bubbles around the world.
80 points left or so i've captured tons of noise in May mostly covering at the 3rd hour and reshorting the close, most days
Replybigger picture, 2725-2750 is demand cluster to be respected but whatever high comes next will be monitored very closely. If they can't manage a break of 2900 it will be a summer a pain
ReplyThere's sydney's loveable larrkin...singo. Keeps refusing to take a loss. Can't stand the thought of someone else from sydney kicking a goal without him...especially someone else without a pot to piss in. Ha ha ha...singo.Take it to the stewards room. We don't want to hear about it. Better still...build yourself a nice cafe up the north coast and enjoy your twilight years...you did well...no one can deny that. But your not coming along on this trip. You haven't got the blood for it.
Sayonara to you and your business buddies pal...
Ps...your the sweetest of them all.
buy some dips
ReplyYen not crapping out like in January rip...
Reply
Replysingo...I'm going make it. unless you pull trigger.
Amps - I wish you’d say something that made sense. It seems like your probably an interesting person and could contribute in a meaningful way, but you come across as if you’re having a different conversation from the rest of the contributors.
ReplyThanks
Marty
It truly pains me to say it, but capitalism is dead and buried. When a country has to choose between default and debauching the currency, guess which one they choose 99% of the time. Closed my EURUSD trade today. I’m afraid this payroll report will start the beginning of the beginning of the end for USD. Gotta sterilize the debt somehow or face oblivion. Plaza Accords Part Deux?
ReplyDraghi's famous bazooka looks more like a water pistol lately...
ReplyPlaza Accords Part Deux
ReplyProbably at some point. But don't expect international cooperation while His Orangeness tries to exploit every (imgined) weakness on the side of his adversary... enermy... wait... negotiation partner.
Stagflation here we come.
ReplyEpsilon Theory talks about this quite a bit. I think I first heard of them from a commenter here -- consistently good stuff. https://www.epsilontheory.com/you-are-here/
ReplyAnon (from June 4, 2019 at 8:32 PM) here: buy some dips
ReplySp we're now up +4.50% on the week (see SPY weekly gain). Did you make more? I doubt it.
So easy to make money with POTUS. If you guys aren't exceeding +20% pa, just buy & hold equities. Stop this sill macro drivel that you persist in - let's face it none of you can outperform the SP500 index. And no insults please, you will thank me in 10-15 years when you have increased your net worth 200-300%.
...and DXY is at 30...so you’re net worth is “up” 250%, but a gallon of milk is $9 and you love your new bike as gas is $12/gallon...
ReplyBrilliant.
Reply"So easy to make money with POTUS. If you guys aren't exceeding +20% pa, just buy & hold equities. Stop this sill macro drivel that you persist in - let's face it none of you can outperform the SP500 index. And no insults please, you will thank me in 10-15 years when you have increased your net worth 200-300%."....anonymous
yep, I thank you slime. your continuous jibes over the last 16 years of this market bull run of how this trader will never again trust analysts opinions and public sentiment again after have experienced your trading paradigm was spot on but not to the effect you hoped.
I won't be hiding in my room trading world probabilities of future events due to be rocked by past market cycles that you have so kindly delivered upon me. No...I don't operate that way. But I do know going forward ...I don't owe the US or UK one fucking thing! not one. You can deposit all the gold from fort knox to the bank of england tomorrow into my bank account ... I don't owe any of them one fucking thing...and its not because i have been shell shocked by each market... that you slime would love to instill within me for future suffering of confidence in operability in my public and private trading accounts going forward...far from it! All you have done is show me how to keep my alpha bets encrypted going forward. I will not be seeding any potential superannuation funds in either country going forward...my alpha bets are going to be too awesome to worry about social classes, religion and old school ties...
I don't care , slime & co how many markets and public superannuations fund you trip up for me...the US & UK are irrelevant. I only care about my alpha bets. While I am free and alive and able to seek out those alpha bets ... I am a happy person to be around. You failed losers!
Amps, shut the fuck up you crack head!
Reply
ReplyAnonymous,
I'll make a deal with you. I"ll stay off the crack if you get jamie packer to go out on a weekend bender that ends up with him stuffing his face with food and have a beer and punt with the regular folks on the general floor of any casino on a monday morning. any. Actually , I'll give him 10million to watch. Therapy.
ReplyThe monday horrors.
C A N " T W A L K O N T O A C A S I N O F L O O R
ReplyLet's give a shout out to a special guy that has put a couple noughts single handedly on the end of team macro's christmas bonus. The world's most frustrated gangster...RUSTY!!!
He method acts everyday. knows them all. hey rusty... how's your five eight jamie?
Yeah yeah yeah...will always be rich, had and will have a collection of women and all the little toys that go with it. But next time guys your all on his boat make sure to spot him lapse into his soul searching self moments that have him willing to give you and all of those toys away to have his mental youth again...your all toys.
As for you rusty...yeah yeah yeah...the women, the money , the fame, the blah blah blah...means all nothing done it , because you have the frustrated gangster disease. It hurts done it. Its painful each day when you wake up and know you have more than 99% of everyone in world and still can't be the man you want to be. Live with it rusty...live it up the north coast away from those that don't give a fuck.
Amps, shut the fuck up you crack head!
Reply
ReplyAnonymous,
I won't shut the fuck up. This souths sydney mob need to be stopped! They don't have the true souths sydney spirit. I'm a thousand kilometers away and people still listen to their shit!
ReplyTake a hint guys...the further away I move...the worse it gets.
Hey Nico, great call on the 2900 handle!
ReplyPlaza II coming. Banks are smaller than 2008. Imbecile central bankers. World fighting over a smaller pie. Front line moving from fixed income to currencies. Gotta devalue debt, juice exports and throw bread at the domestic crowd. A world of Mussolinis...
Replycheers Skr - redeploying short today 180 points above last cover level the coming 3 days will be electric
ReplyFacebook Libra - How to profit from it. Lot of people are saying they DON"T trust fb
Reply
ReplyListen guys...I really appreciate all your tips...but here is a dream trade for you that I have had since the start of the the gulf war in 1990 when my family left the house to me as they travelled down south on a family working holiday , and I went to the local betting shop and backed the same jockey to win four races on one card, and his brother at a corresponding meeting to win a double. Loaded up...and traveled down to melbourne for the racing carnival. It was at this point that I hit the brakes.
The macro man's ((flamingo)) redux trade.
You get to wake up each day and work 10 hours shifts daily , weekly and monthly until you find a model that creates alpha.
You then disappear from the face of the planet.
Your model is handed over to the limited share holders.
Life goes on.
Decades and centuries of family and business and old school ties won't even know you existed after a couple years. Anyone that does misses you...will be given a share of what you leave behind and life goes.
Its 2019...and I'm lucky to still be here...my days are sweet knowing what would have been.
ReplyIt was a friday.
ReplyYou do know guys, there is not going to be a book after this.
Amps, shut the fuck up you crack head!
ReplyUSDHKD, USDJPY, China money markets: what's happening?
ReplyExpecting something from cbus, leftback.
ReplyAnonymous,
I don't give a flying fuck about HK and JPN. The only thing I give a fuck about in this world is my friends from the betting shop.
TLT, gold and EM seem like the best bets between now and the elections. With the prospect of additional QE I don’t like shorting the usual suspects - eg IWM, XHB, etc., but perhaps a few individual names -TSLA maybe. Thoughts?
ReplyThanks
Cornelius
Reply"Thoughts?" Cornelius...
Plenty...member when arky got around the city thinking it was all shit and giggles. Look at it now...trying to through me in jail so he can get a couple people to attend the wedding without thinking they deserve each other. You deserve each other alright. Same goes with whoever ends up with other brides to be they had lined up in place...bit like the old days when they used to switch the greyhounds in the kenneling shed after weigh in. Those poor dogs...fairdukim...sitting in the car all day...and then in flash... the old switcheroo.. and you find yourself in the starting box in field with no hopers. Amps is free a trader now...he doesn't trade for HK or JPN or US or UK or EU. Amps is going to run rampant down south with the footy...no betting shop spys, no elite mf, no ball and chain.
Amps, shut the fuck up you crack head!
Reply
ReplyAnonymous,
Listen , anonymous. I'm trying to promote a good cause here, and your trolling me. I hear arky is scheduled next year to hold the biggest and best arky party foundation event ever in london. Yep...I hear it will be within the confines of her majesty's pleasure. I'm sure her majesty has seen it all in her time as her blood has been noted to enjoy a good gamble...but arky is taking london to another level of entrepreneurship. His holding a charity auction at her majesty's confines next year that will entail the auction of a number of number plates to institutional houses that wish to bid to help a good cause. From the number plates the charity event will proceed to auction away a handful of "jumping classes" in the jumping castle that will be inflated to a precise air pressure level that ensures that you bounce from one side of the wall to the other without attending to gravity. It's going to be the pride of all london's elite events next year and your having a go at me...
If USDHKD keeps up it's ability to predict market activity roughly 3 weeks in advance, it's screaming for a major macro move starting next week after the g20. And it's not indicating anything positive.
ReplyIf this holds true, then Semi's + cyclicals are about to get crushed here. I've made a lot of money in the last 1-2 years being periodically very bearish on semiconductors, and the setup here after the Micron "beat" looks very strong for a short entry at the end of this week.
Interestingly, the technicals for a lot of the cyclical sectors seem to line up with the date being shown by the USDHKD pair. Lots of rising wedges that would force a resolution one way or another around that time.
Let's be frank Trump has made the Fed his pussy. Worse really, he's made them irrelevant. Rate cut ,who needs the Fed when he can just rattle the markets, arsesmack global trade growth and force rate expectation down which is just what he's done.The market is now all about him. The best performing asset groups in my portfolio this year all benefitted from him and his contentious approach to, let's just call it the rest of the world, because it's easier to mention the few he hasn't rattled sabres with. So thank you Donald and please let me know what you are going to do next. I wouldn't be surprised if immediately he trum(pets) G20 success and if he does then I'll in for some mean reversion on safe haven and liquidity holdings. The cyclicals and other higher risk stuff would go up of course. Just reverse all that if he acts like nothings happening any time soon. From a macro viewpoint there's not much to say that doesn't just lead straight back to Trump.
Reply
ReplyIt comes with sad news today that amps has officially retired from racing in all areas of the code. There will be no future beers with turf punters. He has other exciting endeavours to pursue and racing is old ground that was kind to him in its day but is old ground that should be left behind to ponder on the good times sometimes. He leaves racing in the venerable hands of the waterhouse and singleton families that will continue to lead australian racing by way of example of how a racetracks betting ring represents a classless society where first among equals is discarded for the personal attribute of putting your money where your mouth is. In that regard , we admit, they have big shoes to fill...but we can say with confidence that both families have long track records that have signified to you punters out there that you will be in solid hands. Good luck to all of you punters.
ReplyIt comes with sad news today from silverwater jail that amps has closed his hedge fund and will not be taking seed money from wall street and the city of london. Amps would like to thank would be investors for their support but he has chosen to pursue other endeavours that don't require the intermingling of the " conglomerate " of industries that are required within the lifestyle of investing for the super wealthy. He also wishes not to participant with the US and UK banks in a political environment that indoctrinates the willing and transforms those into everyday machine men. The closure of the fund will allow amps to remain living a comfortable and free life that is essential for creating new ideas and finding and edge in other fields of play. We thank you for your understanding and wish you investors good luck.
ReplyIt comes as a shock to australian tax payers today that millions of taxpayers dollars were squandered in an investigation by the australian totalitarian squad into the recently retired horse racing punter and hedge fund trader amps over the course of many years. News limited has obtain a leaked memo from an internal investigation that was recently conducted into allegations of greed and pressures of team conformity by a motley crew of eastern suburbs and melbourne gongsters, racing identities, property developers, media magnates, hedge fund traders and members of the australian totalitarian squad. Details within the memo outlined that for years some members collaborated to provide a public " shell " veneer around amps in a form that would abrogate his ability to freely trade and conduct his business. The memo sets out further details of how over many years false allegations and trumped up investigations were created to decimate amps personal and business life in the hope that the motley crew would take over amps intellectual property rights to further make profits. An anonymous source told news reporters that the internal investigation was only instigated due to the recent romantic affairs within the motley crew that had shifted the teams goal from financial profit and amps elimination to solely targeting amps for elimination. Further sources that newslimited obtain for the story but spoke with anonymity all suggested that once the group of hedge fund traders got involved within the motley crew that affairs and personal vendettas induced more funding and thereby more willing participants into the team to carry out an attack on amps life. Upon repeated failures detailed within the memo it was decided by the motley crew to induce amps to a friendly foreign country upon where he and his work would be monitored and if need be targeted for further attacks without the australian authoritarian squad service due to their previous incapabilities , and this would allow the motley crew to disavow and knowledge of the attack. The australian authoritarian squad refused to make comment on the story but news limited's daily clairvoyant made a statement declaring that getting to tomorrow is a lucky day and never get married to anyone you don't fully know.
ReplyNews flash!
Our news limited reporter has just been with amps and asked him for a comment on the story, he stated "what a bunch poofters"
News alert. Henceforth the Macroman Blog Will be known has The Amps Daily Diary. IPO date to be decided.
ReplyAmps, shut the fuck up you crackhead!
ReplyIf you were an overweight bond bull with no eye for duration risk then today was not your day.
Reply
ReplyHedge fund of funds manager arki busson has today in london declared he will be paying his sin sod to rick santelli on parramatta road to help rick in retirement. news limited report.
This blog is dead.
Reply
Reply"This blog is dead." BTC to the moon...
No it's not. We just pissed off macro man a little bit...yeah yeah yeah...he shows his head on the bloomy from time to time as if it's all hunky dory...but we know. Is and always will be the wall street boys club.
ReplyThis year ...or week , we here at macro man blogspot are going to start a new coverage of the financial markets. We are going to cover the building of rick santelli's sin sod and singletons and waterhouses racing dynasty ...along with jamie packers broodmare stable. Along with that...we will touch on american and england financial dynasties that lust for more porridge. Of course this road will take us trough the trappings of hong kong and japan but us macro man analysts will guide you through as all of this as all you have to do is stay single and don't return to the plantation ((sydney, hollywood, new york, england , europe , hong kong, japan, thailand)). We will eventually watch all together the fruits of macro man's team of game theory and centuries of lineage upbringing to enjoy their ability to rare and train a winner down the ascot straight.
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ReplyDear macro man commentators,
We have to inform our loyal colleagues that since our last post when notifying fans that we will be changing our service format that a number of people have queried as to why. Well, we hate to inform you but amps haters have won the day. Late last week , the year before last and the one next year, amps came out and released his medical certificate since being involved in the eastern suburbs gongster and the totalitarian squad catch and release program. He has no use for trading large capital or merchant investment banking as he has a undisclosed disease and prostate cancer that has restricted his ability to sperm offspring. With these results, amps has decided he doesn't need to commit to the required responsibility that such employment requires, and has decided to trade the market through the day to day patterns that he sees consistently by quantifying these profitable situations and coin money for himself and his personal quant and literally tell (( wall street and the city of london)) to go fuck themselves , in person , if need be.
We thank you everyone one you for your patience and understanding of amps erratic and sometimes nonsensical ramblings here in the macro man space , but we do hope you understand that amps needs space and privacy at this time as he pursues the only passion left in life. the punt.
Without Amps this blog would be dead. Get well soon
ReplyGod bless Amps.
Reply" God bless Amps " ...Harper Street Holdings
ReplyNo point. Only believes in karma. If he had...those critters would be much richer.
Too old to sell...too hypo to keep.
I know them well.
ReplyCome on guys...cut it out. arki says the gossip columns are affecting his ability to deliver alpha returns.
For all you punters out there...especially you noble breed...I hope your all saving up to time your investment in arki when her majesty is commitantly shouting him breakfast , lunch and tea...your alpha returns should amazing and well deserved!
https://www.ft.com/content/7d5ac160-70a6-3c47-869a-df04994e586d
Amps, shut the fuck up you crack head!
ReplyHey monkio, I was pretty good today. Johninio where do you guys buy your hair? Gucci? Prada? I'll have look on my luxury shopping spree as a reward.
Reply
ReplyI just want every analyst team on wall street to research two questions.
When did "she" get elected to decide for sydney...then the world, who gets to make money and who doesn't ?
What is her contribution?
ReplyI'll tell ya one thing...when we get through the variance puzzle , trumpy and co won't be getting any tips. twitter feed doesn't cut it pal.
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ReplySo, after that Fed statement, how did jayninios' press conference go?
ReplyYa think there's overlap?
Ya think a homeless person with a "will" that has been sitting in a safe for 14 years has got a chance against the critters of eastern suburbs?
Ya think a jailbird stands a chance with the australian totalitarian squad?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9PuHjyny9lE
ReplyYa think?
Replyjamie...I don't need to dox ya. your a clown.
ReplyWell, it doesn't look like amps is going to ny or the uk , or hk...or thailand...or europe...or nz (lol)...or macau...or japan..and nor does he want to. where else he can find jamie packer supporters?
oh yes...of course...hollywood!
lachlan and jamie.
and rusty.
and of course ...tinkerbell & co.
Sorry girls but amps is not coming to hollywood. that's your dream ...not mine...you can write whatever scripts you want...but good sorts are everywhere...not just on the screen.
where else can we find packer supporters...of course...the old bread & butter...fashion.
Sorry ...but amps is not a big fan of fashion models if you haven't noticed. amps is looking for an academic type of woman...one that can help out with the spreadsheets too.
Where else can we find packer and murdoch supporters i wonder?
no...we won't go looking in homeless shelters. we said australian actresses are out of the question.
Where can we find them i wonder?
there everywhere!
Well , be that as it may...but amps 17 year truman show is coming to close and believe me this blog has been a godsend. I know you guys haven't agreed with me on somethings...but c'mon...can you imagined the world that may have been? one day i'll be contactable somewhere on a beach trading my way...and the amps tips will be available to some. but amps has to get out ahead of this entertainment , wall street & city of london, noble breed and the filthy rich crowd ... so he get gain his freedom to operate. amps doesn't believe in their shit...and he won't go away and die somewhere because he don't give fuck about them. so their fucked too...you know what mean...you know when those plebs take on the elite...than 6 months later they have car accident...well suck shit...i'm not one of those ones...
hanging and hanging around...
ReplyI forgot...
forget about this meme "more"...
what the fuck am i going to do with more money...
if i can't make money as it is ...i'll never make money ...and i'll only flush more it down toilet trying to chase more of it.
my lifestyle doesn't need your money...
and your expectations are laughable...
i am not going going to consider more money... your better off just sending a hit squad before i get the chance to laugh in your face and the long awaited phenomena called reality finally dawns upon you.
Q.Where do ya see yourself 5 years from now?
ReplyA.Right f*cking here!
ReplyI'll tell ya straight guys...unless someone pays singo a visit up the north coast ...his critters aren't going away...and we are not going to kick any goals.
ReplySingo is sitting up there in his septo years and he is fucked... he is not thinking straight...all he is thinking is is what he can hand down to jack and make him a sydney big shot. that is all...as the big fella was never intending to make anyone a big shot...he just wanted a true earner that could be straighten. singo's true colors are coming thru due that he can't lift the weights himself. and the critters he has under him can't think outside the box. but in these later years of his his going to become more spiteful each year we let him just sit up there and have a say...period.
Replysingo...from me to you...fuck off!
ReplyLet's face it , guys. packer's kids are never coming back to australia...and if they do...let's be serious...you really have to take a beating on sydney streets to learn any mouse about ya. murdoch's are no hope...and never were. the fight is still on down in sydney as to who is going to fill the big fella's shoes.
News Update...
No one!
Leave him in peace.
Replythat's the greatest honor you could do him , jamie...
make sure those critters don't get into any lanes left behind.
Replyis that enough?...
Amps, shut the fuck up you crack head!
ReplyYeah amps, fuck off, you fucking faggot.
Reply
Reply"Yeah amps, fuck off, you fucking faggot."....Packer
Yeah...well tell that to the russian.
ReplyHey Packer...
especially all the rich ones in the uk & us...since i won't be ever seeing them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1877&v=Mh0vEaac78U
ReplyBridgewater’s Ray Dalio Discusses the Impact of China’s Growth on the World Economy
Thanks Gus. I hope Macro Man revives this blog. Miss LB and others
Reply
ReplyThanks for posting Gus...but we are not interested in the politics side of things. Go discuss your thoughts and opinions elsewhere over a beer. We do respect your trading position and your trading desk but if you and your trading desk come venturing into my domain than you have no respect for others privacy. move on guys.
Amps shut the fuck up you crack head!
Reply
Reply"Amps shut the fuck up you crack head!"...Harper street Holdings.
I will when the wisdom of crowds decides to leave a poor old bookworm alone. I am just a little ol bookworm out there somewhere travelling around south america and south east asia on me own studying the form and calculating the odds. when ...not if...that day comes..once again I can finally be a nobody and be left alone to find winners. I kid not...I dream of the day I can once again set the clock at 3.45am and to get up each morning and be left to run my own race to find winners again...no worries about food & shelter...no worries about dickheads...no worries about being paid...no worries...just let it run.
Don't believe amps can find winners? ...I found arki!
Have we reached the point where central bankers can no longer push on a string? Equity markets have a long way to go before catching up with the plummet in sovereign yields.
ReplyAnyone care to speculate on the second and third order impacts of negative Treasury rates in the US?
ReplyWhat about nat and the ny hedgie...
Cannot take a loss. member the billion dollar bonus?...so do i.
no boys...no asian private equity or sports hedge fund for your ny or city of london desks. as a matter of fact...there's none for me neither. i trade my own account beit in a homeless shelter or on a beach in south east asia / sinaloa. no more boardroom titles and obligatory get togethers for me old boys. no keeping up with joneses for this chap either. that is a waste of time when you could be finding more winners.
so natty and ((hedgie))...be on your way...and stop wasting taxpayers money on fruitless investigations. you idiots...your all going to have to follow jamie and wait for daddy's money.
Replyhey nat...you know how i knew...wait for it...drum roll...the suspense is killing me...
17 years and i still cannot get what is even mine...
oh...what a suprise your ((mob)) joined in.
Replycome on nat rothschild...come on here and debate me. you show you head on bloomberg whinging and whining about fellow investors...
come on here and have go...this is a reputable finance blog...be a star for ya team...have your say.
Replycome on nat rothschild...have a go!
Amps shut the fuck up you crack head!
Reply
Reply"Amps shut the fuck up you crack head!"...anonymous
How can i?...it's too warped for believe. i get frustrated at the how these rich kid fuckers think they can just walk over people. the self entitlement is beyond belief...and they drag any lowlife up with them that will kowtow to the bullshit. it's fuckin incredible. i've seen how these lowlifes operate first hand...and they just feed off these warped motherfuckers. fuck'em...they made a spectacle of me over all these years...his a warped doey fat piece of shit...period.
lay down in front of a train for frank all like...i don't even know him ...never met him...never done business with anyone that worked for him...who is he? a friend of friend...oh ...well that explains it...more warped fuckers!
Replywelcome to packers warped fuckers paradise!
Replyno wonder mariah jumped off that boat!
Replyfor the love of god...how can i be the only person that can see that all packer does is back his sycophants as long as they dribble all over him. let it be frank or franks friends...let it be rusty or rusty's bunnies...on and on and on forever it will continue...its more warped than my cousins...proven fact. it has no self intestinal fortitude to form his own opinion and stick to it...as long as the hanger's on take a position for him and stay around him ...that'll do. even better ...if he can joined in and be made to feel like his the "man"...the big fella then all better. he knows he won't get that from me...especially as i didn't bend over to his bunnies in jail. he knows i'm no cranbrook boy...
its over little fella...its all over...the whole shebang! the myth is dead...and no matter what happens to me from here...i am the man that buried it...because you don't have the ability nor the mouse to destroy and conquer and then proceed to kick goals over your enemies corpse's that your Father had. not a fucking chance in hell.
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forget it poker players...i cannot not handle the variance of no - limit...and i don't have the time and refrain to acquirer the necessary game to play at a level of competition or any noteworthy private games... .and your not going to get anywhere near my money...
Replygeez i love this blog.
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Keep it up! Thanks!
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In an effort to resurrect substantive dialogue:
Reply2019 predictions:
-SPX bottoms between 1500-1600
-DB “fails” and merges
-EURUSD parity
-Britain crashes out 3/29
-Oil bottoms below $30
-Spreads over TSYs blow out to 1000bps+
-Rate hikes cease, QT continues
-Trump impeached by House, Senate can’t convict, refuses to resign
It’s been a good summer. I like how the autumn is shaping up. Book is up about 6% YTD. Thank you Euro$.
ReplyMy Dream...
Trumpy regrets ever running for president. make it pay!
ReplyHold on to those risky trade guys...
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