Part of the genesis of this blog is to provide a historical record of trade ideas, and just as important, the justification behind them. And looking back now, it appears I like to talk about CAD, which is strange since I really never traded it all that often.
The loonie has gotten kicked around the past month or so, ending in this brilliant Twitter post:
Every currency should be represented by some kind of animal so we can have more of this.
Then the super-quants chimed in...Jens Nordvig’s Exante Data posted this today:
That got the wheels turning….first, is CAD really underperforming, and if so, is it underperforming because of amorphous residual factors that one could call collective “NAFTA risk” rather than more discernible ones? Let’s go to the facts.
First, if we look at a pack of commodity currencies over the past year, CAD falls nicely in the middle of the range.
On a shorter time scale, the underperformance is more apparent. Since the beginning of the year CAD can’t get out of its own way...but it really started to trade ugly around the end of January. This is where the “NAFTA risk” story breaks down. No chance MXN is at the top of this performance table if the risk of a NAFTA blow up were increasing. Indeed, as I highlighted last week, if anything MXN is arguably pricing in significant political risks as well--leading me to assume there is little if any NAFTA risk priced into either MXN or CAD.
So where does that leave CAD? I can’t compete with the sentient machine learning models at Exante Data, but I can come up with a crude regression model of my own, which is like comparing a Bugatti to a go-cart built with scavenged lawn mower parts.
Borrowing from some inputs and ideas in the JP Morgan model, I modeled up CAD against oil, 1y1y CAD-USD rate spreads, and S&P vol.
The takeaway I get from this is that the blowup in vol and the pullback in equity risk has taken significant air out of the tires for CAD...the model value for CAD rose from 1.24 to 1.32 in a short period of time...and spot was slow to catch up. When it got moving, traders didn’t waste any time in gunning it towards 1.30.
But was it just the equity selloff at work? Turns out the data played a part too--this chart is the Barclays economic data surprise indexes for the US and Canada. The Canadian index craters throughout February, while the US index chops around a more narrow range. When combined with higher equity (and currency) vol and lower stock prices, it’s a clear trigger for traders that had done well holding long CAD positions throughout 2017 to hit the exits.
Similarly, in the rates space, there was some change in pricing the BoC hiking cycle but nothing earth-shattering. On January 25, this is what was priced in. a y/e 2018 rate of 1.84%.
Today that rate is 1.74%.
Does 10bps in the front end equate to a 4-5% underperformance in the currency relative to other commodity currencies? That sounds a bit much to me, but it points to the overall trend that the weakness in the currency is being driven by a reversal in short-term economic indicators rather than the “residual”--NAFTA risk, political risk, or the risk Justin Trudeau is in fact the spawn of Fidel Castro.
Did the Trump tariff news play a role here? Doesn’t look like it to me--the bulk of the underperformance was prior to that, but ya never know. It would be reasonable to use that as the explanatory variable to support underperformance relative to MXN, but the data isn’t there to support that.
Currency trading is about much more than interest rate spreads and current account deficits. At its most basic level, it is about the relative rate of return in different economies….and in this case when the short-vol/equity momentum finally broke down (at least in its previous iteration), it signaled a break in potential growth rates in Canada, and combined with some additional macro-prudential measures to soften the real estate market, it took a good deal of the shine out of CAD.
Bottom line, when you look at a mean-reversion in what had been a very strong run of economic data, the underperformance relative to MXN, and a regression analysis that makes the recent weakness in CAD look more in line with the fundamentals--there isn’t as much to panic about.
What’s next for CAD? It seems like the market is on to something here, and there is good evidence that the business cycle is looking rather tired, despite a strong print from the Ivey PMI earlier this week. That said, my gut says the market seems to have gotten a bit offside here, pushing CAD too much relative to the underlying drivers. Despite the naysayers I think the weak USD trade is intact, so I’m inclined to catch the knife here and sell usd/cad, but just can’t get too excited about it so long as it continues to screen marginally rich on my regression model and the model inputs continue to point towards a weaker currency.
48 comments
Click here for commentsNice, Shawn. I model CAD on 3Y govie spread and 33rd WTI contract (Dec '20). On that basis, USDCAD is looking too low here, which is surprising given the NAFTA risk, recent data disappointments, decent # of hikes priced, and lagged import deflation from last year's FX appreciation. Oh, and then there's housing. And the crude grade differential that has blown out. I'm certainly not a buyer of CAD here ...
ReplyWhile there's no catalyst, I shorted some EURSEK overnight. Everyone hates SEK. There's so much bad news out. On my (revised) model, SEK looks quite cheap. And big picture, this is a currency where 2Y and 5Y swap rates are almost on top of euro's, despite a more advanced cycle. Maybe that means they can't go against you much more. As for housing, I think it's a Stockholm temporary over-build, not something wider that's going to blow up imminently. Anyway, counter-trend without catalyst is a tough trade to put on ... very tactical.
Brainard speech was very interesting. She's gone hawkish.
By "interesting," I mean potentially USD-bullish. In fact, I took down my strategic USD short overlay a notch when I read that. A more proactive Fed than before ... we'll see how things go under Powell, but Brainard has always been the weathervane for Fed staff.
ReplyHappy 9-year anniversary of the 2009 market bottom. It seems like only yesterday the S&P was at 666, and yet here we are at 2766.
ReplyFebruary nonfarm payrolls increased by 313,000. January nonfarm payrolls revised to 239,000 from 200,000 and December nonfarm payrolls revised to 175,000 from 160,000.
ReplyOver the last 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen 2.6%.
Fairly muted market response to the "Blockbuster" headline number. As suggested by others, hourly wages seems to have become the critical data point, and that one missed expectations.
ReplyWe had a long UUP trade going last week, but as soon as Trump mentioned tariffs that one went down the crapper, and today's number didn't revive it. It's proving quite difficult to trade FX in the Trump era, b/c Trump (or Munchkin) keeps opening his mouth and generally sinking the USD.
The market bottom on an intra-day basis was 666.79 and that was on March 6, 2009 - not March 9. Note that the yields on the 10y and 30y had already soared from the lows by the time this happened, as credit markets priced in QE1 long before equities.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHbYitWqmho
NFP and AHE maybe two sides of same coin. If there are 313k net people available to hire in a month, you're hardly at full employment. If we're late cycle, we're very early in that late cycle. Makes sense that stocks like this. Bear markets don't start earlier than 13 months before recession, historically.
ReplyTook off half -EURSEK profitably. Took off half PLNHUF earlier today on disappointing follow-through from Wednesday. Nervously watching USDIDR to see intervention ceiling holds. So far, yes. EURCHF hangs in pretty well, given EUR was for sale yesterday. Did an option trade in USDCAD, betting on it going higher .. I'd probably go long outright closer to 1.275. With all the NAFTA tape bombs, it's got to be really, really compelling to play delta one.
@johno, while the indices may power ahead some more (getting narrower by the day), there is some doubt here. Some sectors which should be celebrating today's NFP and higher participation rate (albeit peanuts in realm) are not really that jubilant. I think some players will look at this jobs report as a sell good news opportunity. Why are the retailers, homebuilders and automakers stuck today? Is consumer as healthy as one would think with the jobs report this strong? Is this as good as it gets? I am betting on the latter on some sectors. Home sales are down. Auto sales are down. Discounters are having tough time, earnings misses galore. Obviously the cult lives on and tech is not the one to sell here (at new highs), but so many consumer related sectors are lagging, and not just today.
ReplyHey IPA, I hear you, but ... low inflation and a job market additions signalling we're not at full employment take pressure off Fed to hike faster, which is the event that eventually terminates the cycle (with some delay) and the bull market. All the data points you mention, I think, the market will interpret as slower growth, not the beginning of a decline into recession. The other thing the market has going for it right now is buybacks. The repatriation has led to a surge in announcements .. 2x last year's rate at this time. This has been absorbing all the selling this year.
ReplyRidiculous to see all these editorials by failed North Korea "experts" admonishing Trump for taking a meeting with Kim. The end game, otherwise, is he gets a warhead delivery system that can strike the US (or we strike first and millions of Koreans die). Then what? At that point, are we really going to press sanctions that lead to collapse of his regime and him pressing the button to take us down with him in his final hour? No. Then we'll recognize him and lift sanctions so we can sleep soundly at night. Better to do it now and get him to denuclearize in the bargain. I'm no fan of Trump, but the "experts" have been worthless on this.
@johno, looks like we are of the same mind on CAD, as you see in the piece, I'm too ambivalent on the risks to really push an outright position but the fundamentals argue for a short cad position at better levels. Would be interesting to look at vol levels relative to mxn to make a ham-handed attempt at isolating nafta risk from mex election risk.
ReplyRe: Korea, totally agree on the "experts". It was interesting listening to the news today--when I drove the kids to school the line was optimism and some cautious praise for Trump's willingness to meet, de-escalate, and potentially find a peaceful solution. By the time I picked the kids up, it was all "he didn't get anything in return", "This is the same thing Republicans criticized Obama for over Iran", and "this shows his foreign policy inexperience". Which is fascinating, since US foreign policy has been a rolling disaster for twenty years. Glad you bozos got the talking points from the DNC. Well done, guys.
Whilst not an 'expert' per se I did think Trump was such an egotistical trainwreck that he would fail to get anything done because of a failure to get consensus. Hey when you're wrong you're wrong.
ReplyAs for Trump and Korea I'm minded of the axiom 'set a thief to catch a thief' except in this case in you want to stalemate an egotistical dictator like 'rocketman' then who better than Donald :)
I think in closeted meeting they could be softly overheard discussing how together they could rule the world , 'you take the West and I'll take the East'.
Was just reading on the constitutional amendment to allow for land expropriation without compensation in South Africa. My knee-jerk reaction is it's a bad thing. But I'm reminded of Joe Studwell's excellent book, How Asia Works, where he points out there were agricultural land re-distributions in the successful Asian tigers (Japan, for sure) that essentially absorbed lots of under-utilized labor, made them productive (when you have lots of idle labor, the best use is to put them to work doing mass-gardening, which is more effective than mechanized industrial farming) and created more local consumer demand. So, putting aside any ideas of justice, maybe this would be a good thing economically? The uncertainty (could take years before effected) maybe not so good, but how big an overhang will it be? Meanwhile, Mantashe is seen as a good pick for negotiating the mining charter ...
ReplyHere's something whacky: Barrons has a chart of labor supply/demand in their lead story. But if you look at US unit labor costs, they're actually low when there are shortages and high when there aren't. Funny, since the point of the article is that wages are likely to go up because of the evolving shortage ...
ReplyThe way I understand the land reform is that it was EFF initiated and ANC had no other choice but vote along to avoid losing face with the electorate. It's unclear what the land audit will show and how much Ramaphosa is willing to water down the implementation. Do they intend to make make it a 50-50 ownership split? Does it apply to total landmass or farmland? Farmland or specifically arable?
ReplyThe gov owns some 20% of land but it varies from 5% to 50% by province. Some further 13% was communal land that was to be handed over to the community. That leaves 67% in private hands with unclear ownership. My best guess is that if they go with 50-50 landmass split and privatize some of state-owned land, there will be little to no need to confiscate the existing possessions.
Bloomberg cited a faulty gov audit that 97% of land is agricultural, but to my knowledge some 81% is agricultural with 69/12 split between grazing/arable. Irrigated land is some 10% of the arable land, so something like 1.2% of total landmass. Arable land costs 10x more per hectare than grazing land and irrigated land a multiple of arable. Confiscating arable/irrigated land will be a huge economic transfer but in terms of ownership percentage it won't move the needle as it's too scarce.
As to the cost of the reform, I'd guess that at 7k ZAR per ha of grazing land, grabbing a third of grazing land would cost the farmers 200b ZAR, 6.4% of GDP.
All the sectors I mentioned above are underperforming today yet again. Ignore this at your peril if you are an equity bull. Also, while I am not advocating to outright short tech here, one cannot be ignorant to the fact that SOX is bumping up against an upper trendline of the broadening formation usually indicative of a top. I am of an opinion that we are nearing the end of this bull run (literally days away from it) if the only sector to make new highs is in a possible last technical phase of running stops and topping out. Non-confirmation of new highs by the other indices (and sectors) should serve as a signal for broader market weakness still yet to come. One is allowed to change his mind, but this is what I see at the moment.
ReplyThank you for the feedback, MPT. Much appreciated!
ReplyQuiet before an eventful week in macro, starting with tomorrow's CPI. Suppose Colombia news was +ve though I don't see the currency having material political risk premium in it to begin with.
FRA-OIS continues to widen. Regressing on WMMFAMNA (prime MMF AUM), CERBTTLL (total Fed liabilities), Treasury General Account deposits plus "other" deposits (like GSE's), and VIX, as I've seen JPM do, doesn't fit the data that well (not enough to feel comfortable fading this here) and shows the 3Mx3M (41bps) being pretty close to fair (37bps) assuming TGA goes back up to $400b. I guess you have to hope some new arbitrage capacity shows up? Maybe wouldn't be a bad bet, but 3M is now out at 48bps! So, you have to figure it could at least stay here, i.e. 7bps loss versus 4bps gain on going back to what some dodgy model says is "fair." Pass on that.
Per our convo last week, I think HFs received FRA/OIS early last week when it looked like spot would stabilize, w/ 1yr fwds moving down to 31. Now eur xccy basis is hustling to a 3yr high indicating--or at least arguing in favor of--a regime change, and fast $$ is running for the hills--2y1y libor/ois went out at 36 yday, which means a lot of long faces in Greenwich.
ReplyIt all leads back to why spot libor/ois continues to blast wider--I haven't updated my data but I'll jump to the conclusion that CP rates are still driving higher, and now xccy is getting into the act, leading to the model-generated fixings at the panel banks printing higher levels. Would be interesting to have a clearer view of where actual short-term bank issuance is printing at this week--there was little sign of stress there when I wrote my post a couple weeks ago.
At to your broader point--the steepener i recommended, some iteration of U8 or Z8 fra/ois vs. 2y1y, hasn't moved at all, which further illustrates the market is re-pricing to a higher assumed "neutral" level.
Hi Shawn, yeah, CP seems to be the driver (and CP is a "Level 1" driver of LIBOR versus something like FX forwards, which are "Level 3"). Wondering why this torrent of CP issuance. Anyone who knows, please speak up!
ReplyAgree with market that FRA/OIS should be finding a new, higher "neutral" level, as you say.
As children thoroughly wet themselves and get taken to the diaper changing station, adults should be looking to do the unthinkable - sell US equities. Outside reversals galore. When the strongest guy becomes the weakest it's time for the end of the game. Look at SOX as your guide in this train wreck. The only way I see it right now.
ReplyJohno/Shawn, excuse my ignorance, but why is CP issuance considered a Level 1 driver of Libor? Is there anywhere on bberg to see/monitor how issuance has increased substantially?
ReplyI remember the JPM guys mentioned that CP maturities in March would be heavy, leading to higher than usual issuance as that paper is rolled over--it was the kind of color I don't *actually* expect to be right, since it is so well foreshadowed. But the move in xccy I think it pointing to the fact that something bigger triggering this last move.
Reply@ Nick Faldo--loved watching you at The Open back in the day, BTW--I don't know who made up the "level" system but the simplest answer is that CP issuance is the most common and cleanest conduit or metaphor for short-term bank funding compared to what LIBOR is supposed to be, the "interbank offered rate". There is a function for issuance prints in bbg, I can't remember what it is--I'm sure your friendly neighborhood bbg rep would track it down for you. It isn't the best because it is only a small portion of the overall market but it does give you a good idea of where new issues are getting done.
Trouble in Paradise. Please note that ES is chewing on 59-point wide channel as I type. A bounce into tomorrow's pivot (and perhaps PP/R1 Mid and YL) should be a good short entry for those who are totally missing this. Plan for the exits accordingly as channels usually extend the full width after they are broken.
ReplyThe yield curve is flattening again, 5s30s 48 bps. Breakevens are inverted. Panic over in the Treasury market.
ReplyOpEx looms ahead of us - with the ever-present danger of a squeeze, but technicals do seem to be weakening for US equities.
@LB, the s/t damage to charts has been done and may not be repaired this soon for OpEx squeeze to matter. SPX may rally on OpEx shenanigans after Fri open but not significantly, imho. Here is what I see in ES (E-mini S&P500 Futures) from the time of this comment (all times are EST):
Reply1. Bottoms at around midnight to 1am (a few hrs after this comment is posted) @ 2758-59.
2. Rallies into tomorrow's open and stalls around 9:30-10am @ 2780-84.
3. Sells off hard for two sessions into Fri open with targets of 2690-2700.
4. Rallies shortly after Fri open into the end of the session on short covering but stalls at around 2720.
My crystall ball is muddied after that (to be revisited after weekend news vacuum or a bang, you never know these days with POTUS), but I say this time it will take more than a few exemptions on steel tariffs to rejuvenate the animal sprits. Pick your poison, Apprentice - The White House Edition, trade war with China, EU or God knows who else, further slowdown in consumer spending (the real story and a total head scratcher for players who thought employment would drive it higher) reflected in main drivers of the economy: housing, autos, retail (watch the sales at 8:30am tomorrow to be weak). I am not seeing anything that makes me believe SPX is capable of taking out 2872 any time soon. We trade this tape two ways and enjoy the volatility while it lasts, but my bias is to the downside at the moment for sure.
Trouble in Paradise. Please note that ES is chewing on 59-point wide channel as I type.
Replytechnicals do seem to be weakening for US equities.
The dip in US equities is being furiously bought during today's European session. A bear trap for beginner traders who lack experience. If any of you had learnt anything this past 8 years you'd have bought this dip and been up 0.5% in the past 2 hours... instead you're once again offside. Will you ever learn?
Hey, Lefty. I'm too busy writing a another paper on the influence of social media on the markets to worry about the US markets. Oh...don't worry, the US market is doing its best to provoke me....
ReplyPS...life's good https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ox8YCZvG-m4
Hey, Tlefty, if you want be to throw a wobbly and take on the ((FED)) ....let me know. I don't think it will be any trouble putting together a team for a future research note on the forecasting of "hillbilly on the hill" while we're recovering on the beaches on Bloemendaal aan Zee.
Replyhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RqtDTy-Eypc
Welcome to the cuckoo's nest.
ReplyThose who are paying attention (and I have to say it is getting harder and harder here) please read my notes on ES/SPX above. If you took the trades, congrats! If you did not, it's ok, there will be plenty more. Draw a trendline from YH. Short the touches. Don't forget to scale out frequently ;)
Clue , intraday is in itself usually not worth a comment UNLESS you are daytrading ,because longer timeframes are dominant. Second clue, The US equity market will determine the significant moneyflow for risk markets and the European market like all others will follow it's lead hence again don't bet on the tail wagging the dog. So, if the US market is risk off ,but the earlier European market as been buying then typically the squeeze will end up in the European action. It's basic stuff.
ReplyWith all the rumblings of an upcoming trade war with China, I would like to point out an ugly head and shoulders on BA with a 54-point distance and a neckline @ 317. There is also a 65-point channel with lower trendline @ 320-ish on a 2-week decline trajectory. Not gonna be a straight line, so plan accordingly, imho. Targets: 299 (a bear from ATH) and 267 (if wings completely fall off). Been down three days in a row with a bear flag pole distance virtually completed, need to wait for a retrace to the trendline from ATH in order to get a better entry and cheaper puts. The stock was up 160% at ATH from the election day. Plenty folks to part with this one still, I bet. A stampede yet to come?
Replythanks Shawn...now that I have extra time on my hands away from the Tour, I am thinking about dabbling in the rates space. more interesting than the tv booth!
ReplyJust a thought, looks to me like DJIA and SPX are set to rise further tomorrow and possibly hit their resistance levels to possibly complete bearish formations. If this happens, I'm worried about Monday being quite black, partially due to what I just mentioned, but also due to share buybacks entering into a blackout period.
ReplyThis is problematic since the market has been somewhat reliant on further drops and volatility since the initial correction by the super high levels of buybacks. It wasn't a coincidence that the initial drops and corrections occurred during the buyback blackout period back in January.
LB has been sitting on his hands but agrees that tomorrow might mark a good entry point following this week's abrupt reversal and lackluster recovery. Early buying and vol selling are traditional for op ex, but the next rate hike and dot plot lie ahead. We will probably return to IWM, beloved of small punters and the instrument we know best for the time being.
ReplyA shame Larry "King Dollar" Kudlow didn't turn up earlier to save LB's UUP trade, which was blown up by Tariff Talk...
For those of us fortunate enough to already be short US equities as of several days ago, there is nothing else left to do but trail the stop and sit and watch how the show unfolds. This being said, one cannot be ignorant and expect the bulls to roll over and die. Nor can one expect the bears to be brave enough without covering en masse once important levels are reached. I discussed some of those levels above. I would like to introduce one more, but this time it's a pattern that is unfolding and not to be ignored here. SPX inverted head and shoulders is in progress with a 150-point distance, head at 2650, neckline at 2800, and left shoulder at 2700. Working on the right shoulder now.
ReplyBeen busy with arb, which has thrown up some opportunities (I hope).
ReplyFRA-OIS move continues. Thank goodness I got out of my toe-dipping trades there. Funny that xccy basis moves the other way. Still don't have a good story to explain the CP issuance there.
Another funny thing is the divergence between euro-swiss 30Y differential and EURCHF, which was the favorite overlay chart CHF bulls used this year.
Almost all my tactical macro bets are in options now, except for -PLNHUF and -USDIDR. Took off rest of -EURSEK trade. It's still on the high-side of fair, but without a catalyst I'm not pressing that bet further. Do have a bunch of option bets around the pair though. Got lucky with the Polish inflation data. Meanwhile, Indonesian CB continues to defend 13,800. Position has me a bit nervous with Fed coming up and Brainard's comments having me finally believing we'll see 3-4 hikes this year. Also, worry about investment-driven trade balance deterioration driving the currency lower, seeing what happened in Philippines, but don't see anything like the same magnitudes. Seems like you've got carry, valuation, and the central bank all working for you.
As much as I want to diversify away from USD, it's hard to think you're expected value is going to beat carry in many of these curves unless global growth picks up (instead of slowing from Q4's pace, as we've seen).
No view on US stocks. I stick with big picture view which is buybacks don't end until debt markets shutdown, which is next recession, and that's likely >12 months out. I do think we're early part of "late cycle" though and risk-reward to holding for next 2-3 years isn't great. My solution has been to own stuff like AMZN and GOOG but not have a huge allocation to the market generally. I figure if we get some late-stage blow-off top, I make money in that stuff, while not being over-exposed to an asset class I think is mediocre on a longer horizon. Of course, you could argue that stuff may crash more than the market generally, so my effective exposure is the same. Not sure I agree with that. Certainly GOOG isn't much more expensive than broader market. Anyway, these are views on a probably a longer time frame than you guys are trading. I really don't try to trade equities around unless we're seeing very violent moves ...
@johno..."unless we're seeing very violent moves" ...
ReplyBuckle up, it's gonna get dirty for the next week or so
@johno, don't know if this matters for you at all, but there are bearish chart patterns on both AMZN and GOOG. Former is breaking down from the rising wedge (literally as I type) and the latter has a pronounced double top now.
ReplyLB is with IPA on this one. Time for another leg down in credit-sensitive sectors? We're focused on REITs, small caps and high yield into next week's FOMC statement and prognostications. All three categories would seem to be typical pre-recession casualties. Canaries in the coal mine....
ReplyClassic Happy Clappy expiration day, pumping furiously all day - right up until the last five minutes dump!
ReplyHappy weekend all. Fed ahead!!!
Thank you, IPA.
ReplySpoos lower this morning, yields and vol both higher ahead of the Fed.
ReplyA few days watching a re-run of the early February playbook, at least in terms of the "Risk Parity" panic?
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