Ten points on today's ECB meeting

1) There is a virtually universal consensus that an extension of QE will be announced, and the overwhelming expectation is that this will entail a 6 month extension at 80 bio per month, so a total increase of 480 billion.

2) Some adjustment to the current operational protocols will be required to implement such an increase.   A permanent change to the capital key seems unlikely, while opening the option of purchasing sub-depo rate yielding bonds is a possibility, and increasing the per-issue ownership limit provides the most bang for the buck (err....euro.)

3) How to introduce language suggesting the eventual end of the program?  Rather than promising 80 bio per month, the ECB could instead offer to buy "up to 80 bio, as required".  Alternatively, they could jettison the language keeping the door ajar for a further extension down the road.

4)  The 2019 inflation forecast is widely expected to be close to target.   In September's forecast round, 2018 was anticipated to be 1.5%; if this is held constant (or even raised), this would be a good indicator that the ECB thinks that QE may be getting long in the tooth.  Alternatively, it could also be seen as making future disappointments more likely.

5) As discussed yesterday, markets are no longer pricing further rate cuts in Europe.

6) It's interesting to note that CTAs' positions as of last week were considerably smaller than they were at the time of the December 2015 ECB disappointment.


7) It's also worth noting that the euro has seen a very considerable amount of buying in recent days from a wide range of accounts.   Last December, the euro was at a local low on the morning of the ECB announcement and speculative positioning and expectation were high.   This time around, positioning is much smaller and expectations almost certainly are, too.

8) Judging by the SPX at least, Trumpflation ecstasy remains unabated.


9) In sum, expectations and positioning both look quite a bit smaller than this time last year, so looking for another 2-3% squeeze is probably misguided.

10) While it is certainly conceivable that the ECB can surprise dovishly, it seems somewhat unlikely that they will.   A dovish surprise would likely entail more QE buying/no signal of a taper or end to the program/elimination of the capital key/hints of further rate cuts.  Macro Man would suggest that the relative likelihood of these outcomes is in the order listed.  This having been said, given the degree to which punters have vacated the short euro premises, a dovish outcome would likely generate a substantial push to the downside, as this is a trade that the street still embraces philosophically.
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Anonymous
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December 8, 2016 at 8:53 AM ×

Hi - not sure whether you meant to reveal your name in the first picture

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Leftback
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December 8, 2016 at 1:14 PM ×

Tapering to begin in April.

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Macro Man
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December 8, 2016 at 1:19 PM ×

Not really. They have the option of increasing the size and duration, and unlike the Fed haven't indicated a desire to reduce further and end the program.

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Anonymous
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December 8, 2016 at 1:53 PM ×

I'm loving this ECB "tapering", which means more asset purchases and doubling the ECB balance sheet by 2018 (via buying debt). Stocks also love it which is why they are rushing up to new highs.

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Anonymous
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December 8, 2016 at 2:18 PM ×

Another dovish surprise: ECB to remove deposit rate floor when tweaking QE technicals. Paves the way for QE infinity. QE infinity was always the goal.

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Anonymous
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December 8, 2016 at 2:19 PM ×


Draghi - we want to continue to put pressure on markets BUT we don't want to distort them, obviously

Central banks buying = distortion

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Anonymous
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December 8, 2016 at 2:26 PM ×

What a wonderful world...

With yesterday's tally, corp bond issuance has topped 2015's total of $1,666B

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Anonymous
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December 8, 2016 at 2:28 PM ×

Draghi thinks we are all potted plants...

Draghi says countries need to converge, undertake reforms.

Converge...what an interesting word

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Anonymous
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December 8, 2016 at 2:30 PM ×

There it is ...the money quote


Draghi says QE is in a sense open-ended.

You are damn right

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Anonymous
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December 8, 2016 at 2:39 PM ×

Wow that was fast...

German 5yr promptly rallies 5bps & now below ECB deposit rate

My, oh, my.

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Anonymous
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December 8, 2016 at 2:56 PM ×

The Fade Nico trade is better than I thought... EU and US stocks smashing up to new highs, Italian banks (which Nico also warned about) were halted LIMIT UP !!! Couldn't make this up hahaha

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Widow Maker
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December 8, 2016 at 3:02 PM ×

Hey Anon @ 2:56. You sound like a kid trying to their hardest to get the adults attention. People like you detract from the quality of conversation here. Furthermore, from my experience, when someone likes to point out what other people are doing, they are usually really insecure since they bring nothing to the table. So my advice, is put your head down and mind your own business, child.

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Purple Haz
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December 8, 2016 at 3:11 PM ×

I would second Widow Maker @ 15.02. As a regular visitor to this site and very, very occasional commenter, the value of named contributors setting out their views is infinitesimally greater than the hahahas from various anons. Even if Nico were wrong every time (which he has certainly NOT been), it would still be useful to read the logic behind his trades. Same goes for the other regular contributors, as well as MM, whose commentaries certainly help me get a better understanding of these tricky markets.

I'm not sure what gloating or laughing at others from behind a computer screen achieves, and it certainly doesn't add anything to this forum!

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Anonymous
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December 8, 2016 at 3:19 PM ×

Jd says,
True that anon 3.02 ...let me add... the real good stuff about those anons celebrating every tick up is the mental image of a bigger and bigger crowd getting sucked in this rally, that will rush to the exit when the tide goes... all the better for your position when the time comes. As for my bit of projection, i think we could see the spoos in the 2300 area by trump' coronation, which would pave the way for a long and painful three months of correction till the 2160/2200 level... see you all in 2017. And thx again macro man, quality as ever!

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Anonymous
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December 8, 2016 at 3:22 PM ×

Like bulls who make calls ahead of time (I am long myself), but these anons who only crow after the fact are noise.

hell they are not even convincing, if fading Nico was such a good signal they would have kept their mouth shut and hope Nico keeps posting here but they instead do the opposite. Trolls who only paper trade would be my guess.

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Macro Man
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December 8, 2016 at 3:34 PM ×

Trolls you're on auto-delete now. Pls go away.

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Anonymous
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December 8, 2016 at 3:41 PM ×

I concur, poor Nico has lost most of his account this past few days, I don't think anyone needs to rub it in any further...

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Anonymous
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December 8, 2016 at 3:46 PM ×

Equity ETFs saw record inflows of $50bn in November. Looks like we're at the start of a massive rotation into equities, should take the SP500 to 2500 or higher in 2017.

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Leftback
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December 8, 2016 at 4:05 PM ×

Looking at the price action in Treasurys, it looks as though the bottom is now in for the US fixed income market. [This could have been predicted by watching the price action in rate-sensitive vehicles that typically don't see HF participation, such as REIT preferreds and munis, for example, which turned within 10 days of the election].

The risks that remain looking forward are the auctions of 10s and 30s next week and Dame Janet, aka the FOMC meeting, statement/press conference. Once we see the latest incarnation of the Dot Plot there should be no more Known Unknowns hiding under the bed, and we will start 2017 by calmly reviewing inflation and GDP data that may be a little less hot than the reflation trade is pricing in.

The correlation breakdowns between spoos and DX over the last few days suggest that the rally in equities is now a classic FOMO trade with participation increasingly led by algorithmic trading and followed by small traders, 12 y-o hedge fund managers and other leveraged players. We can expect an increase in shrill and un-funny bear baiting commentary in falsetto as the rally builds to a crescendo.

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Anonymous
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December 8, 2016 at 4:09 PM ×

US Steel CEO talking about bringing thousands of jobs back... hmmm

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CV
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December 8, 2016 at 5:43 PM ×

For the record, I think this was a very, very dovish ECB meeting. Basically, ask yourself this question. What would it take for Draghi to completely shelve QE, i.e. actually taper like the Fed did. Once you have answered that question, you know what I mean. Sure, they might reduce the pace, but exit completely? I doubt it ... not in the short run at least.

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Polemic
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December 8, 2016 at 5:52 PM ×

I used to think Schauble and Weidmann were draconian isolationists. I now think they are the only ones in the EU system speaking sense. ECB has shifted to behind the curve on the way down to behind the curve on the way up. Yet still none of the underlying issues that have caused all this nonsense have been addressed. Bring me more morphine nurse.

Anyway, Politic watching is the new CB watching. Who cares about the odd bp in yield curves when the populations are about to change the rules.

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Unknown
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December 8, 2016 at 5:55 PM ×

Today was hawkish with draghi doing his best to convince markets "this is not the taper you are looking for" when it clearly was. Draghi didn't want to cut at all but he was with overruled by the majority. He is one mode central banker and doesn't want to reverse course until he is certain he is on to a hiking cycle so the message today is him doing all he can to keep the support there despite having been overruled. Clearly it cannot last and as inflation ticks up on base effects, us rates go long up, the pressure from Germany will grow. Monetary policy will be made on the fly and we are in for a 12 month bear market in bunds as we price in the next hiking cycle which is almost missing from the curve.

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CV
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December 8, 2016 at 5:58 PM ×

"Anyway, Politic watching is the new CB watching. Who cares about the odd bp in yield curves when the populations are about to change the rules."

Indeed Polemic ... I think this is the key lesson which underpins most of what is going on. And we will find to our chagrin that Le Pen/Grillo watching is a whole lot more nervy than Yellen/Draghi watching ;)

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Leftback
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December 8, 2016 at 7:27 PM ×

LB is of the opinion that today's ECB announcement will be seen as hawkish in time when it is realized that the cupboard is bare after today's extension news - there is nothing left for Euro bears [unless you really believe Dame Janet is going to do four hikes in 2017], there are not going to be any more dovish moves from Draghi, unless EU inflation weakens considerably, which isn't going to happen for a while. EURUSD is going to start climbing again from here.

Dame Janet is going to hike in December, b/c the market now expects it, but FOMC will issue a dovish statement that announces a continued measured pace of interest rate adjustments in the future (read: once a year), due to headwinds for the US economy (read: the dollar and the recent spike in mortgage rates). The USD is going to retreat and continue its fall in Q1 '17, and this is going to surprise a lot of people. US long rates will fall again and the spread with bunds will contract as German yields creep higher. As David Rosenberg said recently, we will see 2% US10y again before we see 3%.

Look, if oil was $100, it would be game over, serious stagflation would already be setting in, and we would already be on the way back to 4% FFR, but that's just not going to happen b/c aggregate demand remains low. The New Normal is not dead, it is alive and well in America and leading us to yet another brave year of 2% GDP growth.

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Celeriac1972
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December 8, 2016 at 7:30 PM ×

I think it is now "electorate watching" more than anything else. As you say, voters are in the process of rewriting the rules - much to the discomfort of those who considered themselves to be the rule makers. Investor attention needs to continue its journey from economics-->central bankers-->politicians-->electorates.

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Anonymous
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December 8, 2016 at 7:40 PM ×

LB, considering your medium/long term unpatriotic view of DXY and Trumpflation trade, whats your view on gold/GDX? Will they revert the drop if/when it comes to general light that sluggish, debt choked fundamentals will remain in place regardless of the assumed Trump deficit spending omnipotency?

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Nico G
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December 8, 2016 at 8:30 PM ×

living in both the US and Europe EURUSD has always been acutely followed. Missed a real estate transaction in the US when the pair was above 1.35 (!!) and kicking myself now since RE in 'that' part of the world could remain at celebrity nose bleed level forever. It is on Chinese radar who are champions at distorting local RE markets where they see fit.

EURUSD seems to want to find a base at 1.05 but beyond PPP, rate expectation differential and other technicalities. i wanted to ask you why EUR should be trading at a premium to USD at all? last time the world was buying all US equities like it does now (99/2000 bubble) it was USD that was trading at a premium to the newly introduced euro, and rightly so: the US were reinventing the world.

my point is this: there will always be more innovation, more risk taking and more success in the US vs. the Kingdom of Brussels that will fight tooth and nail to stay. So as some have said, it has become politics watch rather than CB watch, for only the dismounting of Brussels could have EUR currency maintain such premium. Otherwise we should really trade under parity.

a word about Spoos, we are already in rarefied air especially if you start discounting flows with raising rates (oh wait valuations are so yesterday). This has bad reverse convexity written all over it. EPS are going to implode in the face of the buy back Einsteins. It sure can go higher until nomination and some days beyond, but expect a nasty correction before you can even dream of 2500.

Anyway the more trolls, the more mentions of 2500, the better i personally feel. Regarding the Italian banks recently mentioned, i have said since last July that you can NO longer short them. They are bankrupt, but valuations are compressed at bad EM-like levels, you can buy them at your own peril, they can double and still be pezzi di merda, or they can lose you 30%. You need to understand this is casino at this point. Trade safe.

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Mr. T
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December 8, 2016 at 8:39 PM ×

unpatriotic view of DXY and Trumpflation trade
haha, thats a good one.

As a true patriot, I'm going to fight the fake news fight and go all-in on NYT? Am I doing this properly?


announces a continued measured pace of interest rate adjustments
CPI/10yr breakevens are a full 50bp over where they were through most of 2016, when the FOMC backed off their schedule. U3 is down from ~4.9 to ~4.6. Clearly financial market spirits are high. I think it'll be a lot harder for the data-driven fed to get away with 1 hike in 2017. WIRP evenly split between 1 & 2.

I'm not short, yet, but am much less optimistic than others about the situation. Global commodity producers in particular seem vulnerable. China continues to be THE driver for consumption, where growth looks to be slowing driven by increasingly anxious policy. Throw in a hiccup from US trade policy changes (or even ambiguity about policy direction) and the odds seem to increase. Selling GLEN & BHP @ 21x an optimistic NFY seems reasonable. I'd also argue that CAT has no business trading at 30x, but wouldn't sell the stock as its a weird cult.

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Anonymous
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December 8, 2016 at 8:45 PM ×

I think US equity levels are justified, and may even be low... Yellen is NOT going to raise rates in any meaningful way. (One FOMC member mentioned this week that they expect only one Fed rate rise between now and the end of 2018). After the ECB's expansion of QE today, I think it's likely the Fed backtrack on any rate rises, and maybe re-launch QE to provide a buyer of last resort for the additional US debt Trump will produce (to fund his infrastructure projects etc). If the US economy slows, then QE is definitely on the table. I also think the BoE will launch QE again the moment the UK experiences the slightest hint of economic slowdown post-Brexit.

So long story short, I expect ZIRP and QE forever, & equity markets worldwide to increase by 50% from current levels in the next few years. I am moving from 50% to 100% net long equities and will leverage to double this on any dips > 5%.

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Anonymous
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December 8, 2016 at 8:51 PM ×

"I am moving from 50% to 100% net long equities and will leverage to double this on any dips > 5%."

Good plan, but first you need a >5% dip. And second, hope you have the gut to buy when the dip actually comes.

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abee crombie
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December 8, 2016 at 9:08 PM ×

Nico, by the same token, why is the CAD or AUD some 30% lower than the USD. Both are much better than 'merica in many ways.

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Anonymous
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December 8, 2016 at 9:33 PM ×

"Good plan, but first you need a >5% dip. And second, hope you have the gut to buy when the dip actually comes."

I don;t care if equities fall 5% or not. If not, I will be 100% long. If they fall I will increase to 200% long then sell that portion when the previous price level is achieved. If we fall again, I will repeat. Thus my outcomes will be:
- Market rises (I make long term gains on 100% net long)
- Market ranges (I don't lose)
- Market fall (I make short-term gains until price recovers)

The only problem is if equities undergo a massive fall and fail to recover. This has never happened and will not happen in the future.

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johno
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December 8, 2016 at 9:41 PM ×

Was on the treadmill and CNBC had up AAII sentiment before and after Trump. 20-something went to 40-something overnight. Positioning surely didn't adjust with sentiment overnight, and that's what we're seeing in markets now. A catchup to where sentiment is, along with rotation from fixed income (over-owned) to equities (under-owned), year-end performance chasing, and a self-reinforcing relationship between all of the above. We all have our views on what equities are worth, but until the re-positioning has run its course, they don't matter. And that's it. The only trade there is to be long, unless you're Nico.

Draghi was a mixed bag. The short-end rallied ... apparently removing the depo floor is judged more important than easing repo tightness. The intermediate part of the curve rallied along with the front-end, and the long-end was down. Considering it was a surprise taper, bonds held in well. EMFX also traded well, considering.

With the fed dots priced in for 2017 and the Fed unlikely to raise them given the tightening in conditions (rates and dollar) versus uncertain stimulus, it's hard to be bullish the dollar this moment. The Fed meeting seems like it'll be a sell-the-news event. Given I'm generally pro-risk, euro (which acts a lot like a funding currency) wouldn't be my favorite expression. After today's rally off the lows in the bund despite the tapering news (suggesting the duration selloff may be over, outside the US), I'm now tempted to sell dollar against EMFX. Turkey could be interesting here, though rate hikes would make for a clearer catalyst than moral suasion.

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Polemic
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December 8, 2016 at 9:54 PM ×

Johno. Turkey has been a pet trade of mine since the coup and though it is yielding and has gone a long way with the transfer of allegiance having shifted to Russia from the West and where it geographically sits in the world I would still have it last in my shopping list of yielders. Rate moves there do little to compensate for a trade deficit needing funding by FDI and a really messy situation.

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Nico G
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December 8, 2016 at 10:07 PM ×

- Market rises (I make long term gains on 100% net long)
- Market ranges (I don't lose)
- Market fall (I make short-term gains until price recovers)

you should pitch that brilliant strategy raise $4000bn AUM and live off your management fee

and since we're at it, put a name on that strategy, choose a name for yourself so we can monitor your promising success.

Abee, i really like that non-metric take on cross currencies. You remember how shocked i was to see a loonie at 1.4 visiting Canada last Christmas and i traded accordingly. Within the same culture and continent such discrepancy was quite shocking in BUT the US will always attract more talent than Canada + Canada is a much more conservative, prudent society so i stand by what i said regarding innovation and risk taking. It favours the US vs. Europe and vs. Canada (strangely California has more appeal to scientists, than -35c Canadian winters). You could argue that Australia could never match the US in innovation and risk + it is so far from everything from any trading route the 'isolation' discount on currency is warranted

johno you need to specify your timeframe. Long only, long blindly until when, who will ring the bell for you at the top? FOMC is coming just before a monster quarterly expiry next week, i would argue that the only (swing) trade here is to be short, unless you're johno with a much longer timeframe. I trade in days or max, in weeks and when short i have to cover quick or wait that on the famous day it corrects, i still have a clip in the game.

innovation and risk taking also support American equity markets on the very long run, vs. anywhere else BUT they always take it to bubble levels, it is never orderly, you always have 1987, 2000 or 2007 to reset the game lower and give multi-year entries.

Did we get a multi-year entry on Trump election day? With interest rates rising and the potential end of a 30 year old bond market? Please. The argument that people get out of bonds and enter equities at those ridiculous valuations is moronic. Again, they are too many peeps chasing the same market so again, you end up with a bubble. Bull markets always end on euphoria, and after a year of sideways, i am afraid it is happening now, monitoring a blow off top. I ain't saying you get years of bear market after that. I am just waiting for a correction to buy a few great stocks for the kids.

i wish i could have posted here first quarter of 2009 to make a point. I was buying the market with all the leverage i had while Roubini and co were calling Spoos at 400. My point is i ain't a permabear, mark my words, i am convinced that the Spoos will give you a great entry level further down the road. Whether you want to ride a few % up after a 8 years rally is up to you, vs. a 25% correction sorry, the risk/reward is abysmal, everyone and his drone is bullish now and noone will ring the bell at the top.

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Anonymous
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December 8, 2016 at 10:12 PM ×

I am pretty bullish on Turkey for the next 3-4 months period. Geopolitical situation in that region is due to cool down since the new US administration and Russia are both friendly toward Turkey so far. EU is a mixed bag but then the worst case is priced in Turkey's asset prices already.

So I believe that there would be a string of good news for Turkey assets soon.

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Polemic
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December 8, 2016 at 10:18 PM ×

Anon. . fair points but I think it will be hard to turn major corporates or long term proper FDI back on to investing there. Many had their fingers burnt and it will be hard to persuade old fashioned risk-averse boards to go back after they feel betrayed by the last advice. But yes, yield speculators may go back in looking for a bounce and news may improve .. but...

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Anonymous
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December 8, 2016 at 10:26 PM ×

@Polemic

You are right about the impact of all those politic risks on real economy, i.e. FDI which takes years to make a difference on GDP. I am only talk about portfolio investment i.e yield chasers and FX speculators.

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Anonymous
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December 8, 2016 at 10:40 PM ×

LB: "The USD is going to retreat and continue its fall in Q1 '17..."

Mark Mobius must be following you :)

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Nico G
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December 8, 2016 at 10:54 PM ×

anon 9:33 fyi

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-07/bofa-warns-trumpflation-might-break-buy-dip-trade

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johno
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December 8, 2016 at 11:19 PM ×

Nico, I was thinking weeks/months. Whether the Trump trade in equities has legs beyond that, I'm skeptical. You see a short-term reversal trade; I don't. That's fine. You may well be right. Meant no disrespect by my remark.

Pol, I hear you on Turkey. But the fact that it's the last on the list of yielders is part of what appeals to me. Top-of-the-list EM currencies have already been bought, especially versus G-10. I agree with Anon at 10:12pm on the geopolitics too. I think Syria is going to get sorted soon. The currency is at levels where the government is taking policy actions too (admittedly today's weren't received well).



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Polemic
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December 8, 2016 at 11:34 PM ×

I would normally be with you on the idea that the last to the party is the best value. That so fits with my normal train of thought I am actually interested in where the 'Syria will be sorted soon' comes from ? Is this because Trump and Putin will be best mates now and both hard-line all opposition with US effectively changing sides? I actually read things as leading to a stand back by the US in the region leaving Russia more carte blanche to iron fist the area. That may sort out Syria but not in a way that will be good.

Iam not sure trump and Putin will be mates yet, I think the Duma's cheering at his election was because they think there is less chance of him stopping their longer term plans. eg. Ukraine will probably be back on the military agenda and Trump will just say.. 'well let hem have it' even if he does have Mr Hardnose Ballbags as chief of defense.

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johno
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December 8, 2016 at 11:49 PM ×

Hi Pol, mine is probably a facile view, but yeah, I think Trump allows the Assad regime and Russia to iron fist the rebels, as you say.

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Anonymous
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December 9, 2016 at 12:07 AM ×

Trump will be less antagonistic towards Russia simply because he is planning to be more so with China and even he is not so stupid to think he can adopt that approach to both.

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johno
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December 9, 2016 at 12:43 AM ×

I think Trump just realizes that guys like Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi and Assad are better than the alternative, which is chaos and unchecked extremists. If Trump wants to show America a win against ISIS, he needs to be aligned with Assad and Putin, not against them.

Speaking of politics, anyone have thoughts on today's Reuters article saying that Renzi (and M5S and Northern League) is for quick elections and only FI and left minority of PD are against? That doesn't seem to agree with the narrative that we'll have a caretaker government next year, or does it? I've read that the Constitutional Court was likely to strike down the Italicum law if the referendum went "No," so I guess even if there is an election soon, M5S wouldn't get awarded bonus seats giving it a majority ...

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Nico G
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December 9, 2016 at 1:53 AM ×

kudos johno, it is time for political pragmatism and no more idealism. Countries like Irak, Syria and before, Yougoslavia were meant to be led by strong men. If i wanted to stretch that point i'd say that 'soft' governments do not work anywhere, cf. European laxism and the break of its societies.

about Italy, Renzi will buy time until next summer or else, the MPs won't cash on their indemnity. Now that is pragmatism for you, isnt it. Renzi is not gone yet.

i just read an interesting consideration by Charles Gave on Italy before the EU

"from 1979 to 1998, Italian industrial production outpaced Germany’s by more than 10%, and Italian equities outperformed German equivalents by 16%. That’s after taking into account the devaluations"

I traded Italian derivatives in Milan 96-98 i do remember those affluent days.

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abee crombie
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December 9, 2016 at 3:46 AM ×

nico, go to small town USA and tell me what is so dynamic. Isnt this how trump got elected. Not from the dynamism on the coasts....I dont disagree that overall USA and in big cities USA has much more dynamism than many places, but its a trade off for sure. Anyways we can argue all we want, but US Dollar is a reserve currency and CAD and AUD are tiny in comparison, so its not apple to apples. Euro is closer, but still not there bc its not a tested union. (though if it can hold together after the next recession that would be a good LT sign)

Johno, yes traders have to play the long side, but I'm thinking it must be appealing to sell some of your stocks up here at lofty valuations if you have a big book or been holding financials forever. So far technicals look ok so I am holding, but that can change fast. If you have size you gotta act before, not after, IMO. But with so much indexed money these days, who knows. Its all monkeys business until something changes.

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abee crombie
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December 9, 2016 at 4:37 AM ×

also anyone/anon who is long equities bc of a Fed put is playing the wrong part of the cycle. That was the trade 3 years ago, not today. Fed has a reaction function but its changed. But be my guest and play that game. If there isnt a cyclical growth upturn this will get ugly fast as quant/smart beta momo's have crowded into cyclical stuff which moves fast. That is what you are playing when you buy equities here, IMO



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Nico G
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December 9, 2016 at 5:34 AM ×

well said on planning your exit abee

small town USA is irrelevant here, small town is the same around the globe. At national level medical/biotech, high tech, fintech are all domains where US lead is astounding

it is incredible to not have just one FAANG company in Europe so on that sole basis a lasting euro premium on the dollar is abnormal at best and that is before you consider rate differential knowing the Fed is likely to normalise first before ECB BOJ etc

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Eddie
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December 9, 2016 at 8:34 AM ×

and since we're at it, put a name on that strategy, choose a name for yourself so we can monitor your promising success

I think it's called Martingale. All is fine until you are 2^32 times levered and the margin call comes.

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