As a public service to Macro Man readers, your author is pleased to present the patent-pending Price Action Wheel of Wisdom. Simply click on the wheel below to determine why the market of your choice has just moved.
Anyone with thoughts on the CNH/CNY action... Bizarrely it does seem that previous CB buying has been done at Chinese late PM... Seems odd tho. Like a 24hr currency desk at the BoC
@TBC...there I have no trouble believing that the PBOC or agents jammed it down into the close. When they fixed USDCNY lower, it just did not respond at all. It's pretty clear that they have been the 6.60 offer in USDCNH for the last couple of weeks...I guess with the fixing and upcoming new year, they wanted to make a bit more of a splash. No doubt they will be happy to see foreign devil specs choke on short carry over the holidays.
"Lack of output, at only a plus 0.1 percent rate, is the weak baseline in this report. The rise in hours worked, at a sharp 3.3 percent rate, is the highest since fourth-quarter 2014 while, in a plus for profits but less for the inflation outlook, the rise in compensation is the lowest result since second-quarter 2014.
Year-on-year data are more favorable with productivity at plus 0.3 percent, still very weak, and labor costs at a less severe plus 2.8 percent."
...Well, just looking over this, and trying to ignore the ZH-iness of this report, I think there is a partial explanation for the underwhelming nature of our economy in the last couple of years. Productivity at only a .3% yearly increase is not going to do anything good for the private sector. The BLS statistics show that we have found a bad spot in the universe of productive employment. I hadn't really thought about this much, although I have read papers that say that the US "miracle" was really due to better productivity in the US over the rest of the world from 1900 on...if that is the case this, hmmm, productivity recession should worry everybody...
@ Anon 3.02...well we know they do sell, given the mahoosive drawdown in FX reserves. We know they use agent banks. We know they occasionally jam things down. Maybe this was natural stop outs, I dunno, but the explanation if more credible than blaming/crediting CBs for every 5 point move in Spooz.
Bloody top me I bought a bacon avocado roll today amd guiseppe charged me 2.10, last week it was only 1.80. Clearly those sneaky cb boys have drawn a line in the sand at the psychological 2.00 level in an ill thought attempt to defend guiseppe's bottom line. one rule for some eh!
Any reason why the participants/authors of this blog have lowered their respective IQ's to that of imbeciles recently? Honestly this place is starting to sound like a children's playground.
ps Don't bother asking me to stop reading, I already have.
If you don't appreciate the work that I put into a number of this week's posts, then you won't be missed. I'd prefer the commentariat to debate proper macro rather than conspiracies, but if people insist on the latter I am going to have a little fun with it.
Some categories missing from the wheel: "Corporates hedging" "Pension rebalancing" "Option expiry" "Defending barriers" "Central banks selling" (Hey it could happen in theory) "Lack of sponsorship" "Asset shortage" "China" "Oil" "Fed" "BOJ"
@MM, sorry, I now see "CB selling" is the jackpot sliver on the wheel. However, I'm so amused by this exercise I can't stop with the suggestions, also would nominate:
Cracker, MM. That was really special. They actually use this technology over at Bloomberg in the special office where the interns have to come up with the headline for why the market went up/down/meandered aimlessly that day.
Now we have played Wheel of Fortune we are all ready for another round of BLS Bingo. Eyes down....
LB is leading off with a +190k this month. No punting for us until this is in the rear view mirror.
Macro wise the USDJPY 116 area seems like the line in the sand at the moment. If that goes, it will be ugly.
Reports today that the Federal Reserve intervened in markets to weaken the USD. With corporates and banks worldwide having $9.8tn in USD debt, a rising USD and global borrowing costs have caused significant pressures globally, and negatively impacted US corps. Further, the PBoC were struggling in Jan to to defend the yuan against capital flight. If the PBoC were to let the Yuan slide there would be dramatic knock-on effects worldwide. After a dovish ECB meeting and NIRP from the BOJ, the Fed decided to act. Dudley was quoted previously as saying that "any further rise in the dollar could have 'significant consequences'”. FX markets reacted yesterday with the largest fall in the USD in seven years.
3 Cb buying to 1 position squaring.
ReplyDeleteIs this wheel rigged?
absolutely brilliant
ReplyDelete@ Anon...I think it might be. I had another design all ready to go, but some Cb's bought it and changed it...
ReplyDelete"@ Anon...I think it might be. I had another design all ready to go, but some Cb's bought it and changed it..."
ReplyDeleteLOL!
Fantastic contraption, suggest MM uses it more often - he might even manage to generate some profits...
ReplyDeleteLOL mm!
ReplyDelete
ReplyDeleteWhoa!! Disruptive technology alert
This is the Uber of FX sales.
There will be Luddite riots.
Anyone with thoughts on the CNH/CNY action... Bizarrely it does seem that previous CB buying has been done at Chinese late PM... Seems odd tho. Like a 24hr currency desk at the BoC
ReplyDeleteMM - do you perhaps have a complementary wheel for timing? I land on Central Bank Buying but could use a tip on when to buy!
ReplyDelete@TBC...there I have no trouble believing that the PBOC or agents jammed it down into the close. When they fixed USDCNY lower, it just did not respond at all. It's pretty clear that they have been the 6.60 offer in USDCNH for the last couple of weeks...I guess with the fixing and upcoming new year, they wanted to make a bit more of a splash. No doubt they will be happy to see foreign devil specs choke on short carry over the holidays.
ReplyDeleteYes. The CNH-CNY spread has proved a fantastic contrarian indicator of US speculative fervour!
ReplyDeleteMM 2:58 " the PBOC or agents jammed it down into the close" - Less of the ZH propaganda please... maybe you've been spinning your wheels too much.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-3/what-can-labor-productivity-tell-us-about-the-us-economy.htm
ReplyDelete....(Forget the article, take a look at Chart 2)
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar
Productivity and Costs
"Lack of output, at only a plus 0.1 percent rate, is the weak baseline in this report. The rise in hours worked, at a sharp 3.3 percent rate, is the highest since fourth-quarter 2014 while, in a plus for profits but less for the inflation outlook, the rise in compensation is the lowest result since second-quarter 2014.
Year-on-year data are more favorable with productivity at plus 0.3 percent, still very weak, and labor costs at a less severe plus 2.8 percent."
...Well, just looking over this, and trying to ignore the ZH-iness of this report, I think there is a partial explanation for the underwhelming nature of our economy in the last couple of years. Productivity at only a .3% yearly increase is not going to do anything good for the private sector. The BLS statistics show that we have found a bad spot in the universe of productive employment. I hadn't really thought about this much, although I have read papers that say that the US "miracle" was really due to better productivity in the US over the rest of the world from 1900 on...if that is the case this, hmmm, productivity recession should worry everybody...
Thanks MM, I never have to talk to the dealer desks again!
ReplyDeleteIt keeps saying what I'm thinking! How did you do that?
ReplyDelete@ Anon 3.02...well we know they do sell, given the mahoosive drawdown in FX reserves. We know they use agent banks. We know they occasionally jam things down. Maybe this was natural stop outs, I dunno, but the explanation if more credible than blaming/crediting CBs for every 5 point move in Spooz.
ReplyDeleteBloody top me I bought a bacon avocado roll today amd guiseppe charged me 2.10, last week it was only 1.80. Clearly those sneaky cb boys have drawn a line in the sand at the psychological 2.00 level in an ill thought attempt to defend guiseppe's bottom line.
ReplyDeleteone rule for some eh!
Any reason why the participants/authors of this blog have lowered their respective IQ's to that of imbeciles recently? Honestly this place is starting to sound like a children's playground.
ReplyDeleteps Don't bother asking me to stop reading, I already have.
If you don't appreciate the work that I put into a number of this week's posts, then you won't be missed. I'd prefer the commentariat to debate proper macro rather than conspiracies, but if people insist on the latter I am going to have a little fun with it.
ReplyDeleteSome categories missing from the wheel:
ReplyDelete"Corporates hedging"
"Pension rebalancing"
"Option expiry"
"Defending barriers"
"Central banks selling" (Hey it could happen in theory)
"Lack of sponsorship"
"Asset shortage"
"China"
"Oil"
"Fed"
"BOJ"
@cheese. I had to delete some of those to make room for "central banks buying". Also, the CBs selling is in there...look for the smallest entry...
ReplyDeleteAd of course I forgot
ReplyDelete"Buyers' strike"
"Cash on the sidelines"
"Risk parity" and
"Ukraine"
Speaking from the sales side...here is my amended version
ReplyDeletehttp://tinyurl.com/hdfshqy
@MM, sorry, I now see "CB selling" is the jackpot sliver on the wheel. However, I'm so amused by this exercise I can't stop with the suggestions, also would nominate:
ReplyDelete"Dealer exotics books"
"PRDC books blowing up"
"Quants/ HFT"
"Fat finger"
"Algos / Skynet"
I promise I'm done now.
Can we have the CB/ZH trolls back please? Even they were more readable than this recent crap...
ReplyDeleteC'mon mate, this is obviously a joke post. Serious discussion is on the earlier one.
ReplyDeleteAnon 4.15 ........ I find heading to the gym is a good release after a tough day wrestling with mr market.
ReplyDeleteMM...... The wheel is excellent!
Imbeciles? Very Shkreli like. And at about the same time.
ReplyDeleteConspiracy?
@Anon 3:34 You've obviously never set foot in a futures arcade!! (lucky you)
ReplyDeleteMM - This is some of your best stuff yet.
C'mon please do this properly:
ReplyDeletehttps://brorlandi.github.io/StarWarsIntroCreator/#!/K9gq6COszfBHre8u_kQ
Everyone sees that head and shoulders on front month crude right? Is that a thing or am i going crazy?
ReplyDeletehahahaa brilliant, made my day mate!
ReplyDelete@Anon 6:55PM
ReplyDeleteYep - looks like a Joe Hart to me.
Cracker, MM. That was really special. They actually use this technology over at Bloomberg in the special office where the interns have to come up with the headline for why the market went up/down/meandered aimlessly that day.
ReplyDeleteNow we have played Wheel of Fortune we are all ready for another round of BLS Bingo. Eyes down....
LB is leading off with a +190k this month. No punting for us until this is in the rear view mirror.
Macro wise the USDJPY 116 area seems like the line in the sand at the moment. If that goes, it will be ugly.
Reports today that the Federal Reserve intervened in markets to weaken the USD. With corporates and banks worldwide having $9.8tn in USD debt, a rising USD and global borrowing costs have caused significant pressures globally, and negatively impacted US corps. Further, the PBoC were struggling in Jan to to defend the yuan against capital flight. If the PBoC were to let the Yuan slide there would be dramatic knock-on effects worldwide. After a dovish ECB meeting and NIRP from the BOJ, the Fed decided to act. Dudley was quoted previously as saying that "any further rise in the dollar could have 'significant consequences'”. FX markets reacted yesterday with the largest fall in the USD in seven years.
ReplyDeleteThe long term price target of Oil will be $20/bbl: $10 for the crude and $10 for Obama's tax. Prepare accordingly.
ReplyDelete"Gamma hedging"-- the favorite of every too-clever-by-half cash equities salesman in New York.
ReplyDeleteAsian markets steady as we head into the latest round of BLS NFP bingo.
ReplyDelete"Asian markets steady"
ReplyDelete"latest round of BLS NFP bingo"
lmao