Panic, or a Dip-Buyer's Lament

With apologies to the Smiths...

Panic on the streets of London
Panic on the streets of Amsterdam
I wonder to myself
Could stocks ever go up again?
Support breaks, and they slip down
I wonder to myself
Hopes may rise in the oil field
But Honey Pie, you're not safe here
So you move fast
To the safety of some cash
But there's Panic on the streets of New York
Beijing, Rio, and Moscow
I wonder to myself

Turn off the Bloomberg
Sell the bloody market
Because the rallies, they constantly fade
DOING NOTHING BUT RUINING MY LIFE
Sell the bloody market
Because the rallies, they constantly fade

Support breaks, and they slip down
The dip-buyer in me is a sad clown
Sell the market, sell the market, sell the market
Sell the market, sell the market, sell the market
SELL THE MARKET, SELL THE MARKET, SELL THE MARKET
SELL THE MARKET, SELL THE MARKET
SELL THE MARKET, SELL THE MARKET
Sell the market, sell the market, sell the market
SELL THE MARKET, SELL THE MARKET
SELL THE MARKET, SELL THE MARKET

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45 comments

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Nico G
admin
January 20, 2016 at 7:36 PM ×

today felt like capitulation - at least for the medium term picture

on the side of the Old World being given a final -5% on Stoxx a day before Draghi bullshits... is almost a gift and certainly great odds for a bounce that lasts more than 16 hours. Currently trailing and happy

but then again the Smiths would wonder what difference does it makes

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Nico G
admin
January 20, 2016 at 7:40 PM ×

technically speaking after such a heavy gap down and continuation into sellers exhaustion, good mojo in Europe could cause Spoos to rally overnight and gap up tomorrow leading into a powerful island reversal. You should see my serious face as i am talking out of my ass.

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Nico G
admin
January 20, 2016 at 7:59 PM ×

this baby is rippin'

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Anonymous
admin
January 20, 2016 at 8:10 PM ×

Market is front-running the ECB here... am 200% net long off these lows.

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Tonto
admin
January 20, 2016 at 8:11 PM ×

Nico have you sold your soul to the Devil for the gift of clairvoyance ..or alternatively are you the Devil?

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Nico G
admin
January 20, 2016 at 8:12 PM ×

well, we have no idea who you are so it is hard to track your market calls when you post 3% after the low

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Nico G
admin
January 20, 2016 at 8:15 PM ×

sorry Tonto the last post was for anon 810

there was just too much fear palpable on the market - and for it to be palpable on an electronic screen... it gotta be damm bad right

:D

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Anonymous
admin
January 20, 2016 at 8:17 PM ×

Turnaround candidate of 2016? Nico!

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Nico G
admin
January 20, 2016 at 8:18 PM ×

just trying to make a living here - i missed the January short which considering the Everest of abuse i received for the bearish calls those last years... is pretty pathetic

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Nico G
admin
January 20, 2016 at 8:21 PM ×

the Italians call such move 'scarpe da tennis'

when you have to quickly put your tennis shoes on and run after the market

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Anonymous
admin
January 20, 2016 at 8:25 PM ×

Anon 8:10 here. Dow up approx +160pts since I posted above. This is like shooting fish in a barrel.

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Anonymous
admin
January 20, 2016 at 8:28 PM ×

Is this what LB calls a face-ripper?

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Nico G
admin
January 20, 2016 at 8:30 PM ×

this one is a penis and two balls ripper

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Anonymous
admin
January 20, 2016 at 8:31 PM ×

If 1812 was the low, shall we call this the 1812 Overture? Complete with cannon fire?

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Nico G
admin
January 20, 2016 at 8:32 PM ×

now to plan ahead, old 1900 neckline will be the first real hurdle on spoos

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Leftback
admin
January 20, 2016 at 8:34 PM ×

Yes, my dear, we have an authentic Face Ripper. Nico, nobody ever catches every move. Still, no-one said it would be easy:

" No-One Said It Would Be Easy

No-one said it'd be this hard...

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Anonymous
admin
January 20, 2016 at 8:35 PM ×

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-20/guggenheim-s-minerd-says-s-p-500-to-fall-to-1-650-this-quarter

The S&P500 will fall to 1,650 this quarter, as investors seek havens amid uncertainty about oil and China’s economy, said Scott Minerd, chief investment officer of Guggenheim Partners LLC.

“Right now 1,650 is a fairly easy target,” Minerd said Wednesday in a telephone interview from Davos, Switzerland. “I think sometime in the first quarter.”

“We took out support today,” Minerd said. “Until the Chinese revalue their currency, we’re just going to have this overhang of fear.”

Minerd said oil may fall to as low as $20 a barrel but could rebound swiftly as investors with short positions cash in their bets. The Federal Reserve will probably wait until at least June for another interest rate increase, he said.

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Nico G
admin
January 20, 2016 at 8:37 PM ×

can they stop worrying about China devaluing or revaluing 1% for Tchaikovski and Sheryl Crow's sake?

how do you think the Russians feel. Or the Argentinians, Mexicans or Canadians. There is a mass of countries greater than China that saw their correncies move to the tunes of -30% -40% -50% last year ...

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Leftback
admin
January 20, 2016 at 8:40 PM ×

Not sure where we wind up today, but one thing is for sure, in this market at the moment:

Every Day Is A Winding Road

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Macro Man
admin
January 20, 2016 at 8:41 PM ×

Anyone who needed the market to rally can probably thank this post, which really rang the bell on the low. Will take requests in the future; all donations gratefully accepted ;)

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Nico G
admin
January 20, 2016 at 8:43 PM ×

dude. all the donations go to Morrissey

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Anonymous
admin
January 20, 2016 at 8:43 PM ×

MMJI - Macro Man Jingle Indicator, inverse to the MMHI, Macro Man Holiday Indicator

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Anonymous
admin
January 20, 2016 at 8:45 PM ×

Nico, re the china currency fluctuations. I never understood that low volatility panic either. A future MM post?

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Nico G
admin
January 20, 2016 at 8:48 PM ×

yes anon845 it is a good topic - to measure the economical 'mass' of Emerging markets whose currency is down 40% on average i do believe that impact is far more important to world economy that the Chinese small-dick currency games

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Nico G
admin
January 20, 2016 at 8:54 PM ×

now let's observe if we start getting 2008-type liquidation patterns on the close of Spoos

usually a brisk move down between 3pm and 3:15pm Chicago time. That would be a good tell of the amount of margins still at play on this market

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abee crombie
admin
January 20, 2016 at 8:58 PM ×

Lets not get too carried away here with an afternoon bounce in Spoo's albeit a very big one. This years selling is almost exclusively overnight and at the US open. US afternoons have seen net buying

http://us.matthewsasia.com/resources/docs/pdf/Sinology/Sinology-011916.pdf

Some good perspective on China

While GDP rose by “only” 6.9% last year, that came on a base that was about 300%
bigger than it was a decade ago (when GDP growth was 11.3%), meaning that the
incremental expansion in China’s economy last year was about 60% bigger than it
was back in the day.

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Leftback
admin
January 20, 2016 at 8:59 PM ×

Technically this isn't a Face Ripper yet, although it feels as though one may well be on the way. A 3-4% round tripper on the day in Europe tomorrow with a hammer candlestick would be a pretty good confirmation that some form of low has been created.

A few charts show interesting reversals today. Take a look at MORT, for example or IBB. These are the first convincing signs that some of the larger groups of short sellers may be starting to cover.

Now we await the famous conjurer Dr Aghi, the appearance of his hat, and the rabbits that may or may not be concealed therein, not to mention another possible reference to the size of his Bazooka, and a reminder that he will do Whatever It Takes.

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AL
admin
January 20, 2016 at 9:02 PM ×

We really need bank stocks and especially italian ones to squeeze massively tomorrow on good and reassuring newsflow, otherwise is gonna stay really bumpy on this side of the pond. Dr. Aghi? Any thoughts?

1. Dovish and do nothing?
2. Dovish and "vigilant" preannouncing March action?
3. Take action immediately?

I think expectations for point 3 are not exactly at 0% probability, given the recent turmoil.

MM, there is one very positive note despite these messy markets ..... The blog is very lively, love it!

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Nico G
admin
January 20, 2016 at 9:03 PM ×

it is a face ripper for the Joe who sold the hole after one-too-many-too-late bearish call from that asshole in Davos

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Anonymous
admin
January 20, 2016 at 9:06 PM ×

http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2016/01/20/cashin-we-dodged-a-bullet/

Art Cashin's one-minute chat about today, tonight, and tomorrow ...

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Nico G
admin
January 20, 2016 at 9:07 PM ×

AL

very good point if Draghi does not want to see his whole lotta work undone by the Ursine Clan (cf. Abe) he will have to show the real bazooka tomorrow

now whether you get the same 'advertised/reality' gap as most Tinder dating is the big punto interrogativo

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Leftback
admin
January 20, 2016 at 9:11 PM ×

Hmm there are a lot of assholes in Davos... it was an interesting day indeed. We who are long are of course all grateful to MM for introducing Morrissey, the Master of Misery at just the right moment.

By chance LB was on the road and spent much of the day in Texas airports. More than one Peter Plonka [representing the traveling public] was on the phone by lunchtime, discussing dumping stocks and selling equity funds in their 401k. If that isn't an indicator that we are near the end of a Selling Stampede, I don't know what is.

You will all no doubt remember that Polemic called Jan 19th as the Pivot for this move, so when we look back on the candles for this week it may be that he will be very very close indeed to getting the timing right. If he was right, then we were early, of course, but what's new?

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Bruce in Tennessee
admin
January 20, 2016 at 9:15 PM ×

Well, I can't do it the way you guys did it today...I've tried that, but the question always arises, What about tomorrow...?

I have already checked my accounts...SDS went up 54 cents today...or 2.32%. So I raised my stops 2.32% already. I will do nothing else.

MM....about that calling the low thingy.....I remember Mark Haines doing a similar thing on live TV...


...Just sayin'

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Leftback
admin
January 20, 2016 at 9:16 PM ×

The biggest obstacle for a massive face ripper of gargantuan proportions is of course oil. If something (even of a temporary nature) were to happen to trigger a spike in that relatively small and easily manipulated of markets, then the hounds of Hell would certainly be released to pursue the Bears.

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Anonymous
admin
January 20, 2016 at 9:16 PM ×

I think the real indicator of the bounce was not the amount of activity on this blgo today but the amount of posts by MM. Three. I was still posting on 2 blogs ago.

We bounced right off the "Great Bullard Low".

Anon above me, Art cashin warning about rumours on Asian derivatives at certain levels...

Now, if API's have nother big build where do we go? Has expiry of CL called the bottom for the short term? Next 24hours be a big tell.

We usually bounce during holiday periods. Chinese New Year not until Feb 18th I think.

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Mike
admin
January 20, 2016 at 9:19 PM ×

Had almost 100% cash position going into this sell off, waiting for the opportunity to buy. Luckily was skiing in UTAH for the last few weeks which gave me a "fresh" perspective. Went long this morning Spy's, then IBB, then individual names, got lucky on IBB as it showed relative strength to SPX. Plan was to build a position into a close for a swing, instead I took the profits leaving small positions only. Usually I get pissed off at taking profits too early, not so today. I am OK to wait for confirmation of this rally and get back in at higher levels. It just did not feel like a proper flush, I only got a tight stomach in the afternoon, it did not last long enough for my liking before the market reversed. It just felt too eager. VIX at 30-32 seems too low for my liking. The speed the oil is dumping with is breathtaking, happy to watch and reengage short term while still keeping my long term view that the world is NOT falling apart.

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Nico G
admin
January 20, 2016 at 9:24 PM ×

LB

Polemic call was spot on for CL oil expiry. Expiries are known big resets/big volume days to mark market extrema. The long dated expiries have also traded down dramatically on crude - that too feels like throwing the towel considering the absurd uncertainty of oil past a few weeks horizon. The squeeze to come will be of ginormepic proportions

from own experience in market sentiment - no matter the underlying - and the copious reading on the energy world this month i still think we'll see the 40s this year. I am talking my book, out of my ass, i bought a second clip of oil today to average my premature ejacualtion at $33. This is pure gambling like one accused, but it's fun

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Anonymous
admin
January 20, 2016 at 9:32 PM ×

Massive API builds.

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Skyguy
admin
January 20, 2016 at 11:38 PM ×

Lb,

And vnq (see previous comment).

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webby
admin
January 21, 2016 at 12:43 AM ×

Nobody has said it yet, so excellent song MM.

Also, can we come up with a definitive number that constitutes a "face ripper"?
Can't wait to see the 'market approaches "face ripper" territory'headlines on BBG, CNBC etc...

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Nick
admin
January 21, 2016 at 1:42 AM ×

Nico, have you made back half the money you lost last year yet?

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Anonymous
admin
January 21, 2016 at 1:45 AM ×

Don't go there, Nick ... none of yo' busyness! :)

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Nico G
admin
January 21, 2016 at 5:21 AM ×

NIck

Thank you for asking. Why would you assume a loss. 2015 was best year since 2008 i made probably 20x whatever you earn at your pious desk job, while trading from a boat. I sincerely hope you'll do the same one day.

Europe has been in a bear market since April of last year. Lower highs lower lows since. If you were really reading my posts you would know this is what i trade.

Eurostoxx benchmark has dropped 1000 points since April 3840 top. That is a 26% correction down to the 'Draghi' bottom we are expecting.

DeMark caused some buzz today calling for a 5-8% imminent bounce. Good luck!

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Skyguy
admin
January 21, 2016 at 6:43 AM ×

OK, don't want to jinx it but... Can you have a face ripper after hours?

Bloody hell,

Skyguy

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January 21, 2016 at 10:01 AM ×




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