This market strikes Macro Man as one in which it does not really pay to stare at screens all day, lest you see phantasms of opportunity that exist only in your mind. As you can no doubt tell from the relative paucity of recent postings, your author is taking this belief to heart.....
MM you are so right. This morning the Telegraph gets in on the act . First sign of an end to the party ? Or more fuel to the fire ? Will wait for a cab driver to give me a hot 'tip' before trading what looks like an Easter rather than Santa rally. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11251421/German-bond-yields-to-trump-Japan-as-ECB-battles-deflation.html
ReplyDeleteCBOE SKEW Tail Risk Indicator Back Above 140...
ReplyDeletehttp://imgur.com/OGsI30n
whats the CBOE tail risk indicator? Something else telling us why we shouldn't be where we are despite us being where we are?
ReplyDeleteThere are lots of indicators around saying that the last time this happened things went the opposite way that they are now going. Perhaps we should be instead using the 'this time' to reprogram our metrics for future 'next times' instead of always looking backwards and assuming 'last time' is 'this time'
spoo's might be sleeping but Eurostoxx are waking up!
ReplyDeleteAll eyes on OPEC and Swiss gold vote. And a little shanghai surprise just for fun...
AAPL just on a crazy run helping to boost markets. Thinking it is due for a pause soon...
Well yes Abee, chalk down the run in Apple as just another of those things that I don't get about this market.
ReplyDeleteAs for the Eurostoxx ... shh! Don't. Jinx. It. ;)
Claus
trust me pol - this time is indeed different.
ReplyDeleteabee - not an expert but am told aapl is ur dream combination for yr end performance chasers - fair valuation plus likelihood of good headlines in dec holiday sales plus cash rich and buyback potential - and yes it will end badly one day - think its setting up to to be a good seasonal short into q1.
Nothing meaningful ever happens this week of the year and this one is no exception.
ReplyDeleteIn other news, another triumph for the world's self-styled Greatest Democracy as we see that lynching is once again legal in parts of the United States. In addition, you can't use the stairs now or sell a few loose ciggies on the street without being terminated by the NYPD.
I am not kidding when I tell you that the major hazard I face every day on my commute is not any form of casual or organized crime, but is in fact the NYPD, who are now regarded much as the Italians have long viewed the Carabinieri, as a sort of cowboy outfit that served as a paramilitary extension of the Mussolini regime and is still distrusted.
Sir Robert Peel on policing, 1829, worth a read:
ReplyDeleteA civilian police that prevents crime and disorder is much preferable to repression of crime by military force and draconian legal punishment.
A police force’s power to fulfill its functions is dependent on public approval and respect of the police’s existence and actions.
Securing the public’s cooperation with the work of the police force is critical for the police to be effective.
The more help the police can get from the public, the less the threat of physical force is needed to achieve police objectives.
Police must consistently seek public favor by demonstrating even-handed enforcement of the law, and through courtesy, good humor and a willingness to make personal sacrifices in service to the public, regardless of the wealth or social standing of the individuals involved.
Police should use physical force only when the exercise of persuasion and warnings are insufficient to obtain an individual’s co-operation — and then only the absolute minimum degree of physical force needed.
Police should always maintain a relationship with the public that gives reality to the historic tradition that the police are the public and the public are the police.
Police officers must refrain from seeming to usurp the powers of the judiciary or the state. It’s not the job of the police to judge guilt or punish the guilty.
Police officers must always recognize that the acid test of police efficiency is the absence of crime and disorder, not high-visibility police actions in dealing with them.
LB - Brilliant
ReplyDelete@Polemic LB's description seems to fit that of a football referee - there are some rather choice songs about them emanating from the terraces too.
ReplyDeleteI'm off to a Thanksgiving at the in-laws. I know where this one is going - my IBD reading father in law is going to be spouting off about momentum, how anyone who is not up 30% YTD is a putz. I sure wish we could add investing to the list of taboo-topics, but its not going to happen. Pass the booze please.
ReplyDeleteMr. T, just saying, will you ask your in-law about his portfolio?
ReplyDeleteSounds like Mr T's in-law is long GMCR, TSLA, NFLX, TWTR and all that good stuff. Because, you know, we would all of us be long all that stuff and up 30% YTD - if we weren't putzes.
ReplyDeleteYeah. Send some booze over here too!
Leftback, at least NYPD haven't reached the standards of Cleveland PD ... yet.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/cops-kill-boy-12-carrying-airsoft-toy-gun-cleveland-n254251
It's an epidemic. Shoot first, plead innocent later.
ReplyDeleteCrude falling again as internecine economic warfare continues among OPEC members.
This is how quick it happens. Enjoy your Thanksgiving with your family
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b5qDRDPI2xQ
Nov. 20 chart:
ReplyDelete"Crude Could Find an Important Low Near 72".
http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/elliott_wave/oil/2014/11/20/eliottWaves_oil.html
And more
ReplyDeletehttp://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/elliott_wave/oil/2014/11/25/eliottWaves_oil.html?DFXfeeds=forex:technical:elliott_wave:oil
The great thing about elliot waves is that when the count doesn't fit ,. You just change it !
ReplyDeleteI just can't see Saudi or the Ruskies setting their quotas around elliot wave.
Totally, the best bet you can make today is just to sleep all you want and not worry about missing anything
ReplyDeleteHere is the all mighty, much anticipated new growth generating fund, courtesy of the EU, which will generate up to €315bln GDP growth over the next three years:
ReplyDeletehttp://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-14-2128_en.htm
Essentially a debt guaranteeing fund of €21bln for small and midcap companies, which has been assigned a theoretical 15x multiplier of what it should "produce" in return for the economy.
But is the threshold really in the liquidity part, eg. companies not taking loans because nobody else is guaranteeing them? Or is it because they just have no sensible way to invest that money?
@Pol, 12:17 chart:
ReplyDeleteI am not advocating the use of eliot wave or any other method including fundamentals or micro. That chart allows me to see the direction of the price.Even when oil price was around $76, I knew that direction was still down.The author is very good chartist(?). He basically nailed the $Gold top,I've followed him since 2013.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$wtic&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p41298869661
A note to this comment readers: No warranty/guaranty..you get what you paid for ;-).
Drillers are on a deep dive today. SDRL down 18% after suspending the dividend. This trades at 2.5 x book, so it still isn't what value guys would call cheap. One falling knife that we hope all have avoided after looking at the credit markets. Looking at the sector, they are all getting smashed today, and it's likely RIG will follow suit. Eventually there are going to be some very attractive prices in this group, and we will be looking at the Kevlar gloves before too long.
ReplyDeleteNot today, though. It's a day for doing nothing except possibly ensuring adequate alcohol supplies.
Yup LB, that's why it sometimes pays to follow atleast some fundamentals like free cash flow payout ratio and then, depending how deep it is in negative territory, look at how fast debt is piling up and figure out approximately how long that nice big divvy is going to hold up.
ReplyDeleteHave to give some respect for mr. Fredriksen, but like always the eternal growth-by-debt strategy only works so long until it doesn't.
Re: SDRL, its been a fan fav short, kinda upset i didnt take that one in the summer vs the XLE. It would start to look interesting if it werent for the $13B of debt....
ReplyDeleteKeep an eye out for the frac sand and rail car plays, along with the big ones Venny and Russia...
RE: The CEO Fredriksen, just take a look at 2 of his other endeavors, FRO and GOGL...i guess it was only a matter of time !!
ReplyDeleteI had a position in ATW that I cut in half today. Don't feel good about it and willing to get back in down the road but for now that whole theme is in 'wtf' territory.
ReplyDeleteBuying more puts in IYR to hedge extensive positions in REITs and preferreds. Nothing clever, just a little insurance.
ReplyDeleteThe Ultra Bulls are back. It is getting toppy.
ReplyDeleteDow 56,000
agreed LB - don't think anything earth shattering in the offing but beginning to wonder if the thxgiving to dec 15 period plays out exactly like last yr - i.e. a trial by fire for the devout santa crowd before the reindeers show up - don't think a 3-4% correction in spoos would even register as anything but noise in this stellar bull run.
ReplyDeletePlaying it via long 10Y for now and looking for cracks in the edifice on the equity side - fingers Xed.
Which Fed dove is getting shoved towards the stage to stop 2 7/8% 30yr UST from printing this week ?
ReplyDelete$wtic below $70, bunds at 66bps, Green Shoots everywhere. Happy Global Recovery Turkey Day.
ReplyDeleteTomorrow could be ... interesting, and Monday even more so. We can't see today's developments being all that good for the geniuses who have been short US10y all year and are still short. (Dumb and Dumber To?)
ReplyDeleteLooks like another day of E&P, energy and EM FX Falling Knives ahead of us. I'll be leaving my Kevlar suit in the drawer for now as this is likely to be an epic blood-letting. Of course, Spoos will somehow finish higher because of "cheap gas" and ... Spooz.
If the narrative of cheap oil being good has been working for the last 3 months, it'll probably continue to keep working. I don't think this is enough to make the HY market freak out. The shale companies can still make a good argument about their cost curves. Good think noone cares about CPI with food and energy.
ReplyDeleteCheap oil is QE for the people. It must be stopped! Is it "transitory" on the way down?
ReplyDeleteBig sell off in CAD, NOK. (via Citi)...
ReplyDeletehttp://imgur.com/UZ6Tg9k