Redux: the case for an equity downtrade

Just like the other day when happy fate had it that TMM was ahead of the US ex-investment bank, we’re going to try and be early here too. At least in terms of highlighting the issue – picking tops and bottoms is for children, even though it’s a practice we’re still occasionally victims to.

Anyhow, a few things starting to show real signs of concerns from this end, specifically: leadership breakdown in NBI Index (Nasdaq biotech index) and specifically the fact that people have definitely started fading growth – SPX growth vs. SPX value below:



Of nearer-term concern, the technical picture has also started looking pretty bad but in the nearer term, it’s interesting to note the collapse in breadth; below is SPX % of stocks above their 50 dma in green overlaid with SPX price action (note that RSIs are still not at oversold levels – 40s on dailies as we type – and ADX is nowhere near the highs of a trend so still clearly some way to go):



- Willow
Previous
Next Post »

11 comments

Click here for comments
Leftback
admin
March 27, 2014 at 4:34 PM ×

Add to the equity picture a subtle shift in the tone of the emerging markets these last two weeks, where RSX, EWZ and FXI could all be argued to have made turns, and it appears as though the Buy American meme that has dominated the investment world for a year or so is already a little beyond its shelf life.

Welcome aboard to the new TMMembers, btw. Enjoyed all the recent posts. Fantastic stuff.

Reply
avatar
Saul Bollox
admin
March 27, 2014 at 4:36 PM ×

Not to mention US yield curve flattening, innit...

Reply
avatar
Leftback
admin
March 27, 2014 at 7:56 PM ×

Another macro observer seems to be on the same themes, here, TMM:

Correction or Crash?

Quite fabulous melt-up today in some EM utilities. We have been sitting on EBR and CIG for a while, and the rest of the world is catching up to these forgotten assets today. Brazil up almost 5% on the day as BRLUSD surges. A short squeeze, or something else going on?

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
March 27, 2014 at 8:24 PM ×

C Says
" up to these forgotten assets today". In todays' world I really do not believe there is such a thing. What there is extant systemic issues is a constant search for underperforming assets where 'hotmoney' thinks selling may have been overdone. I would also suggest this is a strategy of hit and run ,it's got nothing to do with macro ,or fundamental although I would accept it is not beyond the human imagination to construct same for the purpose in hand.

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
March 28, 2014 at 12:14 AM ×

Mood has definitely turned, albeit perhaps a bit too quickly. Would anyone be surprised by a counter trend rip your face off rally in RUT either tomorrow or Monday? To be faded of course...

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
March 28, 2014 at 8:59 AM ×

C Says
The breadth issue has been coming on for awhile and although the Nas is the worst ,the SP and NY show the same trend albeit not as dire as the Nas.As to the latter I can't remember seeing the technical diverge so much without much more adverse price reactions. Tells me there's been a lot of rotation.
Nonetheless ,the technicals running into the next earnings now have room for a squeeze.
I doubt it'a coincidence that DM deep profit growth centres took a biggish hit just has money appeared to flow into EM :)

Reply
avatar
CT
admin
March 28, 2014 at 10:13 AM ×

I think you forgot to cc the aussies, defying gravity over there.

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
March 28, 2014 at 11:14 AM ×

% above 50d is a momentum measure not a breadth measure. It always falls during normal pauses. Slowing momentum does not equal down. Breadth, as measured by advance decline lines, is fine. Am I the only bullish chartist left?

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
March 28, 2014 at 11:38 AM ×

C Says
" Breadth, as measured by advance decline lines, is fine. Am I the only bullish chartist left?"

You might be the only one between us "left" that put's a bullish interpretation on the numbers.As for other's that might 'suade you to think you are being contrarian please list their names in chronological order so that we can ascertain if you stance if objective ,or yet another 'me against the word' picture of life :)

Reply
avatar
abee crombie
admin
March 28, 2014 at 12:26 PM ×

Precarious situation for equities but after 5 years you have to give the bias to the upside until a Dow Theory down trend signal is given (lower highs, lower lows), until then I think buying the dips is the appropriate strategy. which stock to buy the dips on begs the question. Of course bio tech, 3D printing, TSLA and FB were a little momo crowd, so a good shake out is healthy.

EM and even russia (corp credit and equity) looks to have rotated, along with big cap US tech. HY CDS spreads are on the fence which is what I am going with to determine if this sell off is for real. My support is at 1810-1800 in Spoos

Europe seems to have caught the bid as well. Great time for stock picking when you are on the right side ;-0

any views on yellow metal? when did that become a momo trade? Looking for a bounce here

Nice post, TMM publishing/Willow

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
March 28, 2014 at 7:27 PM ×

Have you looked at the recent statement by the FOMC? Here are two posts which analyze it a bit.

http://alephblog.com/2014/03/19/redacted-version-of-the-march-2014-fomc-statement/

http://alephblog.com/2014/03/19/tightening-starts-when/

The later is particularly interesting.

Reply
avatar