Central banks. Three Heads Are Worse Than One.


Whilst we are talking about central bankers we have found a clip of the ECB in action. Three heads are worse than one.


 

Having heard Ben and the FOMC minutes it would appear that all central bankers are from the same genetic stock.
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Anonymous
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July 11, 2013 at 3:23 PM ×

XHB at 31? YOURS

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Anonymous
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July 12, 2013 at 10:06 AM ×

C Says
Another fairly constructive week.
Pairing Uk domestic activity against Uk global equity to get long exposure is still working as is snapping the HY sort maturity bonds that got thrown out with the bathwater.
I remain very aware that the UK has an election 2015 and as such I expect them to continue to fight for an economic platform for that election. Hence, my on going bias to UK equity with the emphasis on UK activity.

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Anonymous
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July 12, 2013 at 12:21 PM ×

Hi, perhaps an annoying question but hoping you can help. Was reading a post c. 1 year ago and it mentioned an index that impplies the attribution of returns on the S&P using underlying option prices. It is useful for understanding whether company fundementals drive returns or market is moving.

Your help would be appreciated!

A. Punter

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GMS
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July 12, 2013 at 1:40 PM ×

Hi A. Punter,

You may be referring to implied correlation of the S&P components. Higher implied correlation suggests that 'macro' factors are driving returns, while lower implied correlation suggests idiosyncratic or sector factors are larger drivers. This paper from the CBOE describes it in more detail:
http://www.cboe.com/micro/impliedcorrelation/ImpliedCorrelationIndicator.pdf

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abee crombie
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July 12, 2013 at 2:13 PM ×

Was doing some chart gazing outside the normal candidates, interesting set ups in a few

1) Nasdaq & Russell are running
2) Shanghai looks like reversal though we need 2200 hold for confirmation. Similar chart for MSCI Asia ex
3) BRL weak, so with ZAR and TRY. MXN and CAD preferred (play the North America strength)
4) Brent spread going to par? not good for refiners
5) of the PGMs Palladium has the best strength

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Anonymous
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July 12, 2013 at 3:26 PM ×

GMS, thanks. Exactly what i was after!

A. Punter

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Leftback
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July 12, 2013 at 5:15 PM ×

Consumer sentiment slipped in the first read for July with the composite posting at 83.9 versus the final for June at 84.1. July fell short of market expectations for 84.1. Weakness was in the expectations component which dropped to 73.8 from 77.8 in June. However, current conditions improved to 99.7 in mid-July from 93.8 for June.

Not a big surprise really, as this Mickey Mouse measure of US consumers is most sensitive to: a) gasoline prices b) gasoline prices c) gasoline prices d) employment outlook and e) mortgage rates.

The pattern for 6 years since 2007 has been that Joe and Josephine Sixpack always cut their spending when gas prices rise to this level. Or .... maybe they will run out and buy a really massive house from Bobby the Builder? Nope. We agree with anon at 3:23 and we'll be on the XHB short some time next week for sure.

In fact, a pairs trade of long MORT short XHB might be a good one for the 2nd half slowdown. Income over growth, with the interest rate sensitivity more or less neutralized.

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Anonymous
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July 12, 2013 at 6:11 PM ×

France downgraded. Traders will be cacking it on Monday morning.

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Anonymous
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July 13, 2013 at 5:38 AM ×

Anon 6:11.

Until some CBanker says, "Not to worry." JBTFD

Rossmorguy

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amplitudeinthehouse
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July 13, 2013 at 8:07 AM ×

I really hope we aren't going down the same track as last week , again.
I'm short country wide REITS and building longs in the NY book.

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Anonymous
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July 13, 2013 at 9:09 AM ×

C Says
Anon 6.11
I don't think so. That,afterall was simply the 3 from 3 on rating so there is no news in that action.

Amp
Thought you were at the racetrack ,but glad to see Frank Sinatra is alive and doing well.

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amplitudeinthehouse
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July 13, 2013 at 10:32 AM ×

Funny you should say that, the last Psychometric test I had the projection questioner threw at me "Rat Pack" I returned " Copy Cats "

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amplitudeinthehouse
admin
July 14, 2013 at 8:55 AM ×

Told ya...not even a week old and the casino stocks thinks they can push me around in its direction...goodluck getting me out bed fella!

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amplitudeinthehouse
admin
July 14, 2013 at 8:59 AM ×

One last thing...shove your hotel stocks up your ASS!

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amplitudeinthehouse
admin
July 14, 2013 at 10:25 AM ×

Sorry Guys, but thanks to some I now hate this fuckin game..goodluck

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Anonymous
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July 14, 2013 at 11:17 AM ×

Hey, Amp, back in 1988 I needed Easy Goer to beat Is It True to win the Pick Six on Breeders Cup Day. You know how that went. I was at Gulfstream in 1989 when Snday Silence beat Easy Goer in the Classic, picking up 10-1 on the Exacta. They don't make them like that anymore LOL

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Anonymous
admin
July 14, 2013 at 11:22 AM ×

Sorry, Amp, I forgot to give you my handle.

Rossmorguy

Except for a couple big races every year, I quit trying to pick winners at the track long ago. Those nags are even quirkier than the markets LOL

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Anonymous
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July 14, 2013 at 11:32 AM ×

Leftback

This is amazing

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/07/la-times-housing-rebound-in-orange.html

Maybe everything really is all better now.

Rossmorguy

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amplitudeinthehouse
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July 14, 2013 at 1:08 PM ×

Yep ..Rossmorguy I remember, I know what's it's like now to wait for something that you think would be a solid winner only for it to sell you out...

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Anonymous
admin
July 15, 2013 at 10:28 AM ×

Amp,

I have a friend who lost everything on the stock market in the late '80's. Don't ask me how because I don't know. Well, for the past decade he's been winning LARGE at the track (he plays them all, every day, just a race or two a day). Don't ask me how, because I don't know. Sigh. LOL

Rossmorguy

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Anonymous
admin
July 15, 2013 at 10:33 AM ×

Amp,

Come to think of it, I do know how he does it. We all do. He, Jeff, knows what he is doing on account of many years of hard work, and he picks his spots. It's just that simple. LOL

Rossmorguy

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amplitudeinthehouse
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July 15, 2013 at 10:55 AM ×

Stop it!....your making me misty eyed, ya think I need any more misery sent my way?

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July 15, 2013 at 1:35 PM ×

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Leftback
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July 15, 2013 at 5:41 PM ×

Even the moronic mainstream financial media is now beginning to catch on to the US 1% GDP story we have been predicting for some time here.

GDP Estimates Cut

Guess what? Massive monetary stimulus via QE can offset a modest proportion of the fiscal policy effects, but the transmission mechanism (trickle down economics) is so weak that it can just barely prevent an outright recession. Absent a few seasonal blips in crude oil and gasoline, the deflationary trend continues. Look for the employment numbers to be a lagging indicator, as usual. Treasury yields will be way ahead of the jobs number in indicating a slowdown.

By the way if recession does arrives in 2014, with ECRI being three years early making The Call, that doesn't count as a "prediction". About as useful as saying that the sun will blow up one day......

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abee crombie
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July 15, 2013 at 7:56 PM ×

Jeff sault calling for a top here. Tight stop above 1700 in spoos. This rally strikes me as a little to fast to much but who knows.

Rotation into financials and is impressive but other candidates not feeling it as much.

so wait for me to get stopped out and then go short!

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abee crombie
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July 15, 2013 at 7:56 PM ×

financials and tech, oops

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Anonymous
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July 16, 2013 at 3:22 AM ×

$RUT looking like WTF

http://www.businessinsider.com/stocks-approaching-extremely-overbought-2013-7

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Anonymous
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July 16, 2013 at 4:50 AM ×

TMM, Onions are expensive in India, again.Just read it in a local newspaper. Maybe govt is looking for an excuse to raise int. rates to halt INR's downfall.

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