Italian Job.

There you go. Spain last time, Italy this time. When you are looking for a "something" to catalyse a positional shake down you really can't do better than giving the Euro-periphery a shake and seeing what comes out.

TMM are still asking themselves the question "Is this a new theme?" or is this still a "positional shake down within the underlying trend?"

Europe - Italy. The noise function is off the scale with media and market commentary screaming return to Eurodoom. As ever, those furthest from the event end up reacting to the noise rather than the reality because we have noted that markets work a reverse physics, where sound travels faster than light as enlightenment arrives a good while after the noise. "Rest of the World" do seem to be playing this harder than Europe itself. We note that overnight European and  US equity futures traded pretty flat whilst Asia went through its catch up phase, leaving us thinking that noise vs price is, at least in the short term, overdone with the Western markets more likely to bounce from opening lows than extend yesterday's momentum. 

Is Italy important?  It's certainly a wake up call rumble from the dormant Euro-volcano but we don't think that Italy is going to drag Euro back to 2012. If the interface of Euro contagion is based on Italy's commitment to Europe combined with the management of debt load via internal economic management or European support then perhaps we should break it down. 

Commitment of Italy to internal debt management - Italy's primary surplus of 5% of GDP puts it in good stead. Its long term debt structure is well known and short of a market attack, which we think would be repelled by Dr. Aghi, we see long term Italian debt remaining as taboo to shorter term trading as is US and UK  debt. Will the new government mean new change? Well the very fact that one of the complaints is that no legislation can be passed may well mean that a move from existing policy cannot be implemented. Not all bad news.  

Commitment to Europe - The only hint of anything apart form general support for Euro membership comes from Grillo's comment that discussing it is not taboo. The success of Grillo as a whole is a vote against the current structure of Italian politics as much as it is pure anti Europe and TMM don't see a strip down and rebuild of the machine of Italian politics as a bad thing. In fact we have written various posts questioning the divergence of career politicians from both roles of representation and decision making. TMM hope the grey machine of Brussels is taking note. However, we digress. Whilst Europe is still seen as the hand that ultimately feeds, TMM don't see Italian politics doing any more to rock the boat than cause a enough ripples to persuade its occupants to sit down and shut up.  

Commitment of Europe to Italy - As an Italy departure is the nuclear option we can hardly see the self-serving Eurocrats pressing the assured mutual destruction button. What is more, with Merkle coming up to elections and the German opposition more pro-Europe than her, there is probably less likelihood of her playing hardball this time over austerity demands. We are still miles from needing the "Dr. Agahi Put" and even further off the Greek scenario. So TMM are not concerned as the current wave  hasn't even reached the first Euro-defences.

So if we are not as concerned about Europe as the media is (cue more disgust at media hyperbole. c.f. UK debt downgrade) then should we be buying Euro stuff? Very short term yes and we have just whilst the noise dies down and marries back to price action again (see above). But for the bigger picture on global markets we see the Italy story as another seed crystal dropped into the supersaturated solution of confident longs.  Last week the Fed tripped the US but the markets staggered to their feet and now Italy has delivered an upper cut that saw the market hit the canvas last night. As it now staggers around drunkenly, we don't think it would take much of tap from any bad Asian news to see it down and out. 

It was interesting to see Japan try and deliver that blow last night. Jpy retracement fitted into the general positional rather than thematic shake down and as we are judging short term noise to enlightenment signal stretched we are closing out half of our short NZD/JPY and MXN/JPY. In equities we continue to sit on our hands enjoying them getting cheaper.

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February 26, 2013 at 12:59 PM ×

The odd rare & smart wag has made the point that Italy is designed to work without a functioning government.

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Anonymous
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February 26, 2013 at 1:24 PM ×

C Says,
I have struggled to understand the Europe buy other than on a mean reversion basis following extreme sentiment periods.
When people have cited Japan post boom blowout and repeating failures to launch then it is Europe that appears to me most likely to follow that route.They appear to enjoy many of the same facets for tripping themselves up. Promising much on a behavioural recency,or book value, basis only to fail to deliver, because of internal conflicts.

The problems for them are many.Not only do they have to contend for place in the global market.They also have an internal punchup over how they are going to divide the very considerable pie that is the European market.The latter is what this is really all about and the political risk is considerable and ongoing.When the 'tide' is raising all ships who cares,but when the 'tide' is out every ship captain (govt) is in the dock to their electorate.

So raising that 'tide'.Is there enough credit expansion,or real income gains in Europe so that all ships can be raised and thereby ease the political risk?
Leaving the PIIGS aside for the moment. How is France,Holland and Denmark doing?

I think Europe will promise and fail to deliver for much longer than people currently think.I'm sure there will be Japanese style rallies and slumps that reflect that state of affairs.
Globally I doubt either the US,Japan,China,Korea to mention just a few will simply rollover and say go ahead Europe and have some free lunch growth on us.

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Leftback
admin
February 26, 2013 at 2:14 PM ×

You have to say three things about Italy here.

First of all, it's a mess, and it is unlikely to get sorted quickly. Grillo would sell himself dearly and would probably prefer a run-off that he might actually win.

Secondly, as CB points out they are used to it being a mess and it doesn't bother them much. So Italy is going to "function" much as it always does.

Thirdly and more ominously, the 25% for Grillo was a monster vote for a candidate who really began as the equivalent of the Monster Raving Loony Party. Running on a platform that overtly advocated generational warfare in Italian politics must be a concern to other nations. Nobody can be too confident in a Strong Euro policy with what is clearly a very strong Anti-Austerity vote.

Agree with C that France, Holland, Denmark all in a spot of bother and yelling "easy policy" to Dr Aghi.

As for US equities, the technical picture is tenuous. Bulls are sitting on a little ledge chatting to each other, saying "nice here, innit? Quite stable really, nothing much to worry about. What a fantastic view..." but of course they are looking down. The Bears are going to stop and have a little picnic down below and wait for dinner to come to them.

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Anonymous
admin
February 26, 2013 at 2:26 PM ×

C says
Re the US LB. I oft peak at the bullish %.I don't trade the US,but genrally I work top down connectivity.If the US goes then it take my UK equity with it so I'm interested.
The bullish % is a good allocation tool in that when the % rises above 70 and current levels cross down through it then US equity hurts. Early mom bursts cause cuurent levels to rise above the 70.Current consolidations and then selling days allow the 50ma to catchup.That's where we are now with current levels very close to the 50ma. Now even if I didn't wish to be short I certainly at this point would be fully hedged without any doubt at all. When the current level crosses that 50ma it reflects a tipping point and equtiy always fall far enough to hurt.
Catalyst still to come ...pick one from several.Sequestration,gas prices,effects of fiscal tightening already in play etc etc.

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Anonymous
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February 26, 2013 at 2:36 PM ×

C says
By the way to stay in touch with reality I do alittle round robin of various traders to see what they are saying. One who covers a lot of UK ground yesterday said something to the effect..."day started out well DAX gave a goo dswing signal etc.The huge surprise the Italian elections etc etc"
I mention this only to reinforce how shallow the market really can be in terms of it's scope to consider the variables in play. How can anyone ,nevermind that they are supposed to be a successful trader,go into a day espousing yet further additional long risk plays and then turn around 24 hours later and say basically that they were not considering the major event of the moment? That is how shallow the market really can be and it is also why 'price is news' is oft an oxymoron.

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Polemic
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February 26, 2013 at 2:51 PM ×

Well re Grillo the Clown, he is fast becoming TMM's favorite for Italian leadership. In fact some of the policy points he is advocating so far have us gunning for his  election in the UK....   and even for the whole of Europe.  

 "Maximum two terms for members of parliament and any other public role."

"Cuts in long-term benefits to politicians, wages of MPs proportional to the average national wage, elimination of refunds to politicians."

"No double-role permitted for politicians, ineligibility of MPs with criminal records, compulsory entry exam for all MPs on the Italian Constitution"

And and this is the part we particularly like, "No Board member position permitted to those with final criminal records" oooo who could that be aimed at!

If he added "No journalists are allowed to interview other journalists pretending that they are experts in non-journalistic things" we would nominate him for Secretary of the UN.

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Leftback
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February 26, 2013 at 3:00 PM ×

SPX 1500-1510 might be a good area for the market to park for a few hours or even days. This doesn't feel like a very stable technical level, though. The 50 dma 1480 is beckoning, and below that, 1450 looks like it might be a good support that would bring in buyers.

EURUSD definitely wants to go lower. But first we have the BERNANK giving testimony: "In the US, we have a Weak Dollar policy. We will do all we can to maintain a Weak Dollar". So we will have a brief hiatus here while a few John-Johns buy up more of their favorite momo stocks.

Tend to agree with TMM and C that the market will go lower and it will be a case of "pick a catalyst, sir, any catalyst will do". (China PMI, US Durables, US PMI, US jobs next week). Technicals are in charge for a bit, and correlation is back.

"Macro aggro, macro aggro, 'ello....." (LB didn't learn that on the playing fields of Eton).

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Anonymous
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February 26, 2013 at 3:32 PM ×

C Says
Waht I found interesting about Grillo was how he ties into the uprsing of support for UKIP and indeed you could argue the Greek outlier did better than anyine might have expected.
Underlying this is a real problem. Even though the UK doesn't have the Euro we still have the EU and all that it stands for. I think we are seeing what happens when you develop an ideology without consultation.Without in fact bringing along with you the support of a large section of your population. Tie that in with the loss in confidence vocally expressed re banks,politics (the establishment) and it is a problem when it get's to a level that has political leverage.25% isn't a number anyone can simply ignore.Perhaps more importantly that is a number that is very likely to grow over time IF current policies and outcomes are maintained.Huge unemployment,who do you think they are going to vote for? Huge number employed ,but living on the breadline,who do you think they are going to vote for?
I'm by no means sure that Europe on it's current policy path can outlast the growth in discontent.
The Uk has it's own 'discontent' vote growing ready for 2015.
The problem for risk exposure to this is one of weighting. The more seriously you assess that risk to be the less exposure you want to have to it. I think I take it a bit more seriously than the overall market. Doesn't mean I am right to do so of course,but only time will tell whose right.

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Anonymous
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February 26, 2013 at 3:50 PM ×

[unrelated]
What gets me about UKIP is that all their women put on toff accents and pretend like they're straight out of the 1950s. When in fact we know they're just Mrs.Buckets. Oh and the men all think they're either Winston Churchill's reincarnation, or biggles. No serious old money players just chumpz.

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Anonymous
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February 26, 2013 at 4:03 PM ×

C Says'
Interesting.
"No serious old money players just chumpz"
Excluding your final word exactly what do you think the expression anti existing establishment means in terms of who you would expect to find supporting it?
Moroever ,unemployed,breadline, anyone simply feeling excluded by current govt policy ...they are hardly going to be "old money" are they?
Indeed ,on that note,giving my faded much frayed flares a fond gaze ,I feel the rebellious urge to stand up and say fuck "old money".Perhaps that makes me a "chumpz" too.

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Polemic
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February 26, 2013 at 4:09 PM ×

Anon 3.50 sounds like a perfect description of the inhabitants of most committees of golf clubs in the UK.. and hence our reluctance to go near the places.

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VandalsStoleMyHandle
admin
February 26, 2013 at 4:26 PM ×

Apropos, spotted on Twitter: Italian-English translation: Beppe Grillo = Jeremy Clarkson + Alexei Sayle + Nigel Farage

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Anonymous
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February 26, 2013 at 5:55 PM ×

C Says'
There is certainly something going on in the political scene.Some groundswell that is different.
I mean this is not about unemployed louts who have no desire to work,or contribute. It appears to be just ordinary people who feel they are being shortchanged by existing politics.

I try not to get too caught up by this stuff,but it does remind me of a different time. Anyone recall the late 60's. We had the youth in the US shouting about war and peace,but probably less well remembered we had a huge revolt firing off over here in Europe.I think it was '68? Started with French students ,but before you know it the rank and file joined them and De Gaulle was running for his life.
I only mention it really because it occurs to me that once again we are talking about the same kind of groups in society (young,ordinary workers etc) who may be gearing up,or in this case, responding to a political message (Grillo) that resonates with them.

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Anonymous
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February 26, 2013 at 6:28 PM ×

Yes but the point is UKIPers desperately want to be the establishment, that's why they joined the conservative party. Like those teenagers that dress like their parents and spend weekends playing scrabble instead of getting ass.

Murdoch thinks he's anti-establishment, but to others he's the definition of it.

They're chumpz because they're preaching to the converted. Even the Islamists know that's no way to spread an ideology, and most of them are many-generations-inbred.

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Leftback
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February 26, 2013 at 6:35 PM ×

C,

For those with a long memory, the Southern European debt crisis evokes memories of the 70s farce by Dario Fo, Non Si Paga, Non Si Paga ("Can't Pay, Won't Pay").

Pol,

LB loves playing golf but eschews snooty clubs in favor of places where to get in you need a bag of sticks. Round here, the golf clubs require a huge initiation fee and they tend to be full of "members". Can't tell you how many single digit handicappers among the "members" carded in the high 90s when closely observed.....

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Leftback
admin
February 26, 2013 at 6:41 PM ×

A quiet day for LB at Falling Knife Capital. We punted our front month XHB puts into the open, thereby avoiding ritual disembowelment and a visit from Cold Steel, as a wicked squeeze developed after the New Home Sales number. We also have a rule about never bending over in front of The Bernank.

Interestingly, the XHB squeeze stopped dead, right at the 50 dma, just below $28. We will probably get back to that in due course. Right now we are finding it relaxing not to be BOSIVIAN. (Balls Out Short, Infinite VaR etc..)

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Anonymous
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February 26, 2013 at 6:54 PM ×

C Says'
Anon 6.28
Perhaps you are right.I am no expert on UKIP. I simply note that they are but one of a new set of groups who appear to be gathering support based upon a message that existing political regimes have failed in a way which has led to rising dissatisfaction. The numbers suggest that their message is finding increasing suport.Are UKIP really conservative anymore? They don't appear to be advocating the Tory message if they are.Indeed ,it is noticeable that Cameron has seen the difference if only because his messages are becoming increasingly similar in content to UKIP.No doubt to stop the bleeding of his support.

I don't really see this has a party ideology issue so much as it appears to be as much about shaking up existing political structure.That at least is the message I pick up from it all.

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Anonymous
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February 26, 2013 at 7:00 PM ×

C says'
LB, I think it's too early to get a blind panic short,but each of these 90% days kicks out part of the breadth in this rally.We know that because a falling bullish % number is really the same as saying that after selloffs there are fewer and fewer companies that buyers wish to own by paying a higher price.T'aint rocket science.

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Anonymous
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February 26, 2013 at 7:15 PM ×

C 5.55 and Anon 6.28

These two points of view are not necessarily divergent.

The French 68'ers chased De Gaulle and what they thought or believed to be rancid establishment, only to take their places and have their turn at running the money spigots (think 80s yuppies, the Vivendi guys in the 90s-00s and of course looking back at how much of an iconic rebel he was for that french generation, do not think for a second that the demise of Depardieu in the eyes of his fellow countrymen is unrelated to the above cycle)

DD

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Leftback
admin
February 27, 2013 at 12:46 AM ×

ZH posted this today, it is fakkin quality:

Economic Models

I challenge any readers of MM not to smirk at least once on their way through this. LB made it to New Zealand before laughing so hard stuff came out of his nose.

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Leftback
admin
February 27, 2013 at 1:18 AM ×

A quick note on New Home Sales and its chequered history. Today's number was 437k, proving that it there is no better time to BUY, the streets are now paved with gold, and the moon is made of cheese. Now for those MM readers with a long memory....

In March 2010, the number was 308k, April was 411k, and May was 504k. The equity market peaked at the end of April, bond yields a little earlier at 3.75% on the 10y. Many observers felt that America was back, bond yields were going to explode upwards, and inflation was going to "break out".

By June the New Home sales number was back to 300k, where it stayed on average for about 18 months. The Flash Crash followed, and we didn't hear from aggressively bullish money manager "Gary" after that, as things got a bit more Japanese.

Millions of Boomers are retiring and selling their homes, to be replaced by a smaller group of buyers in younger age groups. So there must be unprecedented demand for new homes to be built? Not really......

Market dynamics are hard to predict but the Tokyo real estate market declined for 20 years driven primarily by demographics. It isn't likely that the NAR can conquer the demographic shift unless they bulldoze millions and millions of homes in the US. We'll revisit this one in the summer and see if it is Morning in America or Mourning in America.

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Anonymous
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February 27, 2013 at 6:59 AM ×

First drafted while awaiting downsizing in the wake of 911. And yes I was SSS (Sell Side Scum, Spinal Tap Style, like the SS, only one worse). Apologies in advance - Billy Shakespeare I ain't:

Saggy Bourses (To the tune of Baggy Trousers - Madness)

Naughty trades in murky pools
Head traders breaking all the rules
Blowing up the greater fools
Mashing up those algo tools
All the traders in the pub
Passing round the devils 'druff
Trying not to think of when
That trading bell will ring again

Oh what fun we had
But, did it really turn out bad
The only thing uncool
Was blowing up those greater fools
Oh what fun we had
But at the time it seemed so bad
Trying different ways
To make commission through the day

The Desk Head's had enough today
All the bids have gone away
Gone to the fixed income pool
Flight to safety is the rule
Sits alone & strains his brain
Same old sh!te clients again
All the brokers tell tall tales
Telling lies to close small sales


Oh what fun we had
But, did it really turn out bad
The only thing t'was cool
Was how to bend not break the rules
Oh what fun we had
But at the time it seemed so bad
Trying different ways
To make commission through the day

Lots of girls & lots of boys
Lots of smells & lots of noise
Manipulating the benchmark
Taking Kickbacks after dark
Saggy Bourses, dirty float
Hitting bids & making quotes
Bennie comes to bid it up
Back to the 'ighs with a POMO pump.

Saggy bourses, saggy bourses, saggy bourses...

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February 27, 2013 at 8:28 AM ×

This is 1968? All of the large demonstrations have been led and attended by people who were actually there at the time. Now nostalgically defending middle class privilege beneath a veneer of societal benefit.

As for the kids, the only thing massive about last week's Madrid assembly was the redefinition of the word itself.

Now is not then.

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Anonymous
admin
February 27, 2013 at 8:34 AM ×

C says'
As the dust settles on Italy i think we might reconsider the situation.
Having got so close in election 1 our two "anarchy" candidates are in a very strong position. Were I them I would bang the drum even louder on the anti austerity drum.The Euro referendum.
I think that populist message would get them past the winning post.
Of all the PIIGS it would pay to look at how the markets responded to their debt.I would suggest this.Economically they are in much better shape than any othe PIIG.
Were they to actually re float the Lira they stand to gain much. After a suitable revaluation I would suggest they would be fighting off international investors looking to rollover their debt,because at a stroke they would resolve their growth issue and put a lid on their youth unemployment problems.Moreover with currency as an issue out of the way so to speak further uncertainty on that score would likely be seen as a low probability i the medium term.
I think I could sell that package if I were Grillo,or Berlusconi.Indeed at this juncture that is the one oversight Berlusconi has failed to capitalise on.

It would be ironic if their relative economic strength makes Italy the best candidate for a viable Euro exit.

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seo.gopinath
admin
February 27, 2013 at 9:09 AM ×

Latest Deals - Andhrareporter While Kobo was late to the glowing e-reader party, it appears to have been worth the wait. The Kobo Glo is a 6-inch, Wi-Fi enabled e-reader with a 1024 Market News - Andhrareporter


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Anonymous
admin
February 27, 2013 at 9:14 AM ×

C says'
CB,"Now is not then" is a rather obvious matter can we not agree.What I was pointing out is that the sentiment,the issues,the protagonists are remarkably similar in profile.
Indeed 1968 etc was only a beginning.An opening shot if you will that pretold of much more of the same to come as we entered the '70's.
"Veneer of societal benefit".That may well be your take on it and it may even have merit when it comes to people like Berlusconi.Yet there are others who are more sincere in their beliefs.Whether they can actually transform those ideals into a positive outcome for society is another issue.
Arguably though 1968 and onwards did actually score some points for the 'otherside' eventually if one considers that these movements are fundamentally about offsetting the manner in which wealth is distributed when politics and economics become onerous to the welfare of the cannon fodder. I liken it to the marie Antoinette moment when instead of arrogantly eshewing "eat cake" she is given a shnapshot of her future and decides to throw some meat instead ;)

I was youngish back then,but old enough to understand the issues and they remain more ,or less the same today.We've seen earlier echoes of Italy in the tea party and so forth. Grillo is only the same sort of thing magnified.

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February 27, 2013 at 9:30 AM ×

C,

Sure. All that. But what I mostly see is a bunch of de facto well-to-do old farts trying to make sure that wealth doesn't get redistributed away from them.

The ETUC meeting in January did nothing to disabuse me of that opinion. Attitude towards young is indistinguishable from Germany's towards the periph.

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Anonymous
admin
February 27, 2013 at 9:48 AM ×

C Says'
CB,
"But what I mostly see is a bunch of de facto well-to-do old farts "

This is not really what I see in Grillo etc. Berlusconi et al probably yes.Possibly even applies to UKIP although I'm less sure about them as my knowledge of their makeup is wobbly at best.

Really ,when it comes to Italy it's not that important anyway.It matters more that the status quo required by the EU appears to be under great pressure from a mixture of protagoinists.Whether these entities are a force for social good ,or a Berlusconi hardly matters in that sense. What matters is ,are there enough of them to change the existing EU outlook on how the EU will address it's current approach to debt and growth.
If we think there is enough uncertainty on that score then it's time to sell the Euro rallies.I'm nothing if not pragmatic. I can sell that Euro and rebelliously burn a flag or two simultaneously.My hyypocrisy knows no limits.

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February 27, 2013 at 9:55 AM ×

'My hyypocrisy knows no limits'

Oh good! You're one of us

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Polemic
admin
February 27, 2013 at 9:55 AM ×

Anon 6.59.. that is most awesome. Great choice of song too. Want it linked or posted if not elsewhere?

As for Italy.... don't forget Belgium didn t have a govn for 18mths.. no one seemed too bothered until the crisis forced them to push someone to the front.

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Anonymous
admin
February 27, 2013 at 10:20 AM ×

C Says
"Belgium". I think no one was bothered as you put it because "where is Belgium again?"
Can we spell Nonentity?

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Anonymous
admin
February 27, 2013 at 10:22 AM ×

Sorry Belgium,I love you really,but you are so dull that no one can really be bothered to get uptight about your prospects.

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Anonymous
admin
February 27, 2013 at 11:03 AM ×

C says
In fact I am glad you mentioned Belgium. You do realise that Belgium is so boring the Austrians once gave it away to the Spanish (EU). They in turn cared so little about it that they lost the fight to keep it and the Grillos' of that era actually won it back !!

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Anonymous
admin
February 27, 2013 at 12:18 PM ×

C Says
Not a lot of bouncy bounce going on so far. "Power to the people" appears to be a sobering thought for risk taking. On that note will someone please checkout the whereabouts of Wolfie Smith. i think he may have changed nationailty.

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Anonymous
admin
February 27, 2013 at 12:30 PM ×

Wolfie Smith's leading the Turin Popular Front

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VandalsStoleMyHandle
admin
February 27, 2013 at 12:31 PM ×

Surely there's no more poetic expression of Italy's sclerosis than the mainstream choices of Berlusconi and Bersani. Imagine if the UK had been going down the shitter for 20 years, and now you get to vote...and your two choices are Michael Howard or John Prescott...in that scenario, I'd vote for Clarkson, John Terry, Ricky Gervais....

So I find the Grillo vote both perfectly explicable, and also offering some hope, and hopefully some lessons for the mainstream parties. In retrospect, it's clear that if the PD had put forward Renzi, rather than Bersani (who looks like he's teleported in from a 1960s picket line), the landscape would probably look very different today.

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Anonymous
admin
February 27, 2013 at 12:55 PM ×

C Says
Given we are talking about the Italians here i think they have all missed a shoo-in candidate.

Profile;Female,rightside of middle age,think "Friends does 30's";poor enough ,but educated;gorgeous,but not slutty.
Wins by a landslide.

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Anonymous
admin
February 27, 2013 at 12:59 PM ×

Sara Palino?

dd

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Anonymous
admin
February 27, 2013 at 1:13 PM ×

C says
I confess I think was visualising more ....Maria Carfagna.

Indeed when you consder her and then Germanys' candidate of Julia Bonk (I kid you not) then we get a much better appreciation of what austerity politics actually comes down to ..yes,I know i am sexist piig.

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Leftback
admin
February 27, 2013 at 3:52 PM ×

Cor blimey.. given a choice between Berlusconi and..

Maria Carfagna

Actually she has some appalling right wing views....

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Leftback
admin
February 27, 2013 at 5:45 PM ×

Blimey, SPX 1513 already. Didn't expect that so quickly, but here we are. Hmm... low volume grind up into resistance in the complete absence of any significant FX movement. I am always suspicious of that kind of move.

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Anonymous
admin
February 27, 2013 at 7:22 PM ×

C Says
There have been quite a few rallies in the last couple of weeks,but I'm ignoring them and just keeping the eye on breath and rotation. Otherwise one just get's sucked in and whipped whilst what one should do is be patient and wait for the setup on the larger move.

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Anonymous
admin
February 27, 2013 at 7:23 PM ×

Look at them go pumping the market up. Its Marissa Mayer's new Yahoo policy. OMFG we actually have to go into the office. And the news is all over it. Sorry to my english friends for using "and" at the beginning of a sentence.

Now LB's awesome link he posted above made me think, do you guys have economic cultural factors you apply to your analysis, for a specific country or region? Sorry to pick on the Japanese but this is an example. They can perfect doing the same thing over and over, but believe they are not the best of innovators. Would be interested to hear some views, of different regions/countries. Not trying to spark an argument, or cause a jihad, just curious.

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Anonymous
admin
February 27, 2013 at 7:35 PM ×

C Says'
Yes,I have a cultural thing going on with the US. I calculate that most are so basically stupid that they don't know where anything is outside the US boundaries.This facet of their nature makes them more able to ignore everything that may be happening in the world outside of this tunnel vision and results in market skew often hard to understand ;)
I could have abbreviated and just said they are gullible.

Just my day to kick a few politically incorrect rocks.

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abee crombie
admin
February 27, 2013 at 8:26 PM ×

month end ramp... thanks S&P.

equities are so hard to figure out. FX seems more predictable, for a change

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rp
admin
February 27, 2013 at 8:32 PM ×

wouldn't economists just have different levels of relative risk aversion in consumption in each country...Or at least that's how they reason with a lot of their puzzles.

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Anonymous
admin
February 27, 2013 at 8:40 PM ×

c says'
Abee ,,indeed ,it's that time of the month again.

I ought to say I was just having a bit of fun with the US there. I tend to shy away from stereotyping whole nations if I can help it ;)

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Anonymous
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February 27, 2013 at 8:50 PM ×

Beppe Grillo just phoned he said get short it wasn't over yet.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o-JxupSFSc0

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Anonymous
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February 27, 2013 at 9:11 PM ×

Same here, except for Germans and their schuld/Faust syndrome, which is not an unfair generalization to make.

"Now pray tell me, how do you take religion?"

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Anonymous
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February 27, 2013 at 9:30 PM ×

Damn, already sold a call for one of my Spoo core longs soon after the Italian lead eurodrama... I hope they get off the gas pedal again soon.

What a completely insane manic depressive market this is.

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Polemic
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February 27, 2013 at 9:35 PM ×

Charles - i forgot to say "spot on " with your comment at the top.

rp .. spose so , but the behavioural cultural trends should show up historically in data correlations and so i assume be adapted for in future projections against history (extrapolation). As for predicting policy adoption against what should be pretty standard economics.. then Yes.. thats where folks go "BoJ? never fought their way out of a paper bag , so won't now" sort of stuff.

Seo geopinath you are the first spammer willing to show a picture . you are either a complete dork or its not you and you remain a dork.

Anon 8.50 - bloody hell I remember Renaissance Mix. in the same theme - here is Bersani's response .. (jump 1min in )
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hCFtMKOXeTQ

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rp
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February 27, 2013 at 10:28 PM ×

well i suppose in terms of policy and culture Buba's hawkishness is pretty militant. I was told that lots of Germans tend to carry larger denomination notes than their neighbours, and that this was as a result of the scar left on the German psyche by the hyperinflation of the Weimar era. That seems a bit far fetched, but i've never been so have no idea.

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Gexton
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March 5, 2013 at 1:13 PM ×

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March 13, 2013 at 3:26 PM ×

There is certainly something going on in the political scene.Some groundswell that is different.
I mean this is not about unemployed louts who have no desire to work,or contribute. It appears to be just ordinary people who feel they are being shortchanged by existing politics.

Media Monitoring

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