Tuesday, October 16, 2012
We should do that more often. When we want markets to move we should write about them being dead because it's all a bit interesting again and debates have been raging in camp TMM.
It all kicked off in the TMM camp this morning with a debate as to whether Krugman was a genius, or just a once genius who has now been swept up by political hackdom, accidentally wandered into the BBC anti-austerity camp, been given a cup of tea and if not careful will go all Niall Ferguson on us. Let it be recorded that to allay further dispute an entante cordiale was signed amongst us agreeing that the BBC were so stuffed with their own economic sensationalist agenda that it was THEIR fault and we'd leave Mr K out of it. His genius (or not) should not be judged over a bleeding obvious "may or may not" statement as to the worth or failure of UK austerity plans. Maybe Krugman is to the BBC what Jack Welch is to conspiracy theorists.
Next came the discussion that QE operators may be considering ripping up the debt they bought. Not much of a debate, but where Gold would go on it was, mostly resting on the number of noughts on the end.
Then there was *GERMANY OPEN TO PRECAUTIONARY CREDIT FOR SPAIN, LAWMAKERS SAY, Leaving German debt asking the market- "Do you expect me to Pay" and the response - "No Mr Bund we expect you to die". It does smell as though the Spanish comments for no need for ESM may because they are actually arranging a "Bailout Lite".
Then there was Canada - Carneys dovish comments have shoved CAD off its perch and even the stalwart last bastion of AUD shortness, AUD/CAD has started motoring higher. (no bad thing for TMMs AUD positions) but Carney's status led to further debate over the next Governor of the BoE and how, as with Soccer managers, it is no longer compulsory to have a CB governor of team nation origin. Soon followed a resurrection of TMM's game of Fantasy Central Bank, where we select our dream team of central bankers and policy makers for our ultimate "Policy Makers United" team. Judging by past England football performance perhaps we should leave Italians and Swedes out, but Draghi's heroic efforts at the ECB have him a firm favourite. The results will maybe make a later post.
Whilst all this was happening we were steadily missing the development of what now appears to be the strongest possibility we have had for a break higher in markets for a while as various earning continue to "surprise" to the updside. How many "surprises" make a "huh"?
Finally TMM are getting a little bored of random indicators popping up and being lauded as heralds of either the next big crash or rally or Mayan end of the world. Coppock has cropped up again and we add it to Hindenbergs, Battledeathcrosstar Galacticas and all the other "no no really, it really works" indicators with silly names they have in their bottom drawer of indicators that don't work.
If it really is that easy then TMM wish to join in and launch their own TMMLTBI (Team Mystic Meg Load the Boat Indicator)
TMMLTB Indicator - Team Macro Man have developed the TMMLTB Indicator with one sole purpose: to identify the commencement of bull markets. The indicator was devised for use on making shed loads of money but is suitable for use on any market index or average, pint of beer or bottle of wine.
This indicator is currently sitting at BOLIVIAN.(see glossary)