Thursday, August 04, 2011
But are they strong?
Japan is joining the fray on its Intervention day. As with all intervention days the market puts down its economic playthings, dresses up in its finery and heads off down to the tilt-yard to either participate or spectate in the medieval sport of FX jousting.
The rules are fairly simple. The intervening central bank climbs its mount, usually an e-platform or a phone line to one of its primary dealers and pelts off full tilt towards the market. The market will meanwhile be heading towards the intervener. On passing each other they will try to knock each other off their mounts.
But what usually happens is that the intevener will try to get the jump on Market by charging down the course and delivering the first blow whilst Mr Market is still joshing with his knaves and hasn't even donned his armour. From then on the day consists of a series of jousts with the intervener taking on all comers, normally a bevy of relieved local exporters grateful for light relief, a few commited fundamentalist nutters and a collection of headstrong (some may say foolhardy) speculators, who remember the glory Sir Soros garnered defeating the Old Lady of England. Meanwhile the audience cheers on from the sidelines and makes bets as to how many yards the intervener can do before he gets knocked down.
We suggested yesterday the markets are getting closer to the point of major coordinated policy intervention as "price" has become the news. If price is the news then of course the way to counter the bad news is to move the price. "Price" even went Tabloid yesterday with the fact that the Dow hasn't fallen for so many days since whenever the last time was. With the BoJ now in play after the SNB and their quasi-QE yesterday, we debate if the ECB will declare its support. As with most intervention days the gossip and rumors are rife and economic data is but a sideline (though today's German data once again shows their exporters loving the benefits of the periphery weakening its currency).
TMM are meanwhile firmly in the stands watching rather than jousting and have started to play their own game of futility. TMM are trying rank in order of uselessness their collection of useless things.
Plastic wing-nuts to secure toilet seats
Lawn-mower on a yacht
Trying to get yourself off email lists
PC World (the UK store)
The Euro rescue plan
The US Republicans
"Baby on board" car stickers
US ratings agencies
Western Audit firms operating in China
Balance sheet accounting
Buying Swiss 1y govt bond, as it's yielding MINUS 0.047%
Your pension plans
Buying equities as you don't think 2 CBs reflating is bearish
Your children's futures
Increasing your luck by forwarding this on to 10 true friends