Thursday, July 21, 2011

Going Over The Top

Here we sit in our trenches, waiting for the whistle to sound as we are all led over the top by a pistol touting lieutenant to our certain death. Cpmppi is scratching out a farewell letter to his loved ones hoping it catches the last carrier pigeon home, Nemo is weeping out a mournful lament on a battered mouth organ and Polemic is polishing his boots so at least he looks smart in death. TMM can hear similar preparations in the trenches around them.

The rest of the Macro Platoon, battered and worn fighting decay and regulators are writing letters to their investors explaining why they have to say goodbye.

The bond boys, knowing that fiscal policy dominance over monetary in their key indebted nations' markets lament the day they could rely on their central banks to move short term rates and prepare for their last charge upon the debt of Europe. Death or glory.

The Equity boys, haven't had any rations delivered for months and are so malnourished they need to make this final push or face starvation.

The commodity boys, took a pounding from enemy artillery in the spring offensive and are now stunned and gibberish in their fox holes.

The young lads in the quant RV trenches. Poor souls, some as young as 12, only just out of their mothers arms and thrown out to the front lines to face annihilation at the hands of the broken correlations.

Meanwhile the venture capitalists' biplanes drone overheard scouting for new opportunities. Their relevance to the greater effort at times questionable and their average lifespans pitifully short. Death comes all too soon in the tangled wreckage of their machines.

And yet we all sit here, awaiting the call to go over the top on the orders of Generals who sit in their comfortable salons in Brussels and Frankfurt, playing with our cheap lives as but part of their parlour games. Oh, the futility.

"Nemo, are my boots shiny enough?"...

"Yes Polemic - Your Mum would be very proud of you"


Point One Away said...


Anonymous said...

A very well written commentary and I agree with most written, there is however one glaring ommission and that is that for risk and equities to rally, there needs to be a +ve global growth backdrop. Global IP is turning up, so it should be fine, but it is IMHO a prerequisite.

abee crombie said...

ok risk is ON!... lets chase CAd, Auz .. lol

But I do like XLF though.

went into a local best buy yesterday. Non iPad tablets got a big display. i wouldnt short aapl but perhaps competition has finally arrived

Anonymous said...

I am a noob, but IMHO, I don't think the market will need "extreme" +ve headlines to rally. The lack of -ve news + expectations of the usual (Japan coming back, gas cheaper, China not crashing just yet, EM inflation slowing a bit from base effect, corporate spending to take advantage of tax relief before it ends, etc...) is enough to get it rolling for a little while. That in the near term, as usual 3-6 months is another story.

Leftback said...

Fix bayonets, men !!!

The men march in eerie silence as the platoon advances though the mud across the No Man's Land between the trenches. A few patches of early morning fog and a couple of whiffs of mustard gas are all that interrupts the progress of that brave hearted band.

Polemic breathes in the morning air of the Somme, and ponders his good fortune to be here at this historic moment, when suddenly Cpmppi nudges him in the ribs with an elbow.

TMM are awoken from their reverie, as suddenly the mist clears and the blood chills, as they are face to face with the enemy. They are staring directly into a machine gun nest commanded by Mangler !!

God Speed, TMM. LB is over here in the tank for the time being.

CV said...

Right LB, but can Mangler afford the ammunition?


WellRed said...

Great post TMM. I may regret it, but I went over the top with you yesterday.

Tyler said...

I already regret it but I didn't go over the top (yet). still sitting in the tank with LB.

Nic said...

Absolutely brilliant post :)

Abeecrombie check this out re AAPL:
Are You Listening Steve Jobs?

abee crombie said...

crazy about AAPL.. thanks for the link

its a different world in the wild wild EAST

this whole risk on/risk off world i find much better played with Fixed income/currencies.

If give up trying to time S&P. Easy to call tops, impossible to know when to get back in